₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

Semi-retired hedge fund founder. Ex hot-shot lawyer, ex hot-shot strategy consultant. Macro+picks in crypto, commodities, tech, old-economy & a few special sits

[₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い @BeenThereCap]

I nailed the GFC - saw it coming, heavily shorted into it, kept making money running net-flat for months while most were getting destroyed. Then I botched the turn, getting net short early into a monster rally and giving back more than half my fund's outperformance.
1/4

[fed_speak @fed_speak]

It’s very stupid imo but you just know someone is going to launch a SPX minus SpaceX ETF and raise $10B in the blink of an eye.

[₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い @BeenThereCap]

But maybe $MSTR common shareholders are just dumb.

[₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い @BeenThereCap]

A bunch of posts have word-painted the fallout of Saylor's decision to "test the market" by selling 32 of $MSTR's bitcoin as an absolute debacle.

The bitcoin price fall is modestly bad, but $MSTR's mNAV looks surprisingly chill. Barely down, now 1.20 vs. a 2026 bottom of 1.02.

[₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い @BeenThereCap]

He's all in.

[Charlie Warzel @cwarzel]

pretty decent encapsulation of the last few years on here

[₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い @BeenThereCap]

Update from today's FDA meeting.
Helps confirm what the prior items above were strongly implying.
6/x

[₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い @BeenThereCap]

I'll show you 3 posts in last 24 hours relevant to $QURE and challenge you - if you know the history behind $QURE's drug approval attempts, the Prasad & Makary firing/resignations, the new acting director choice, etc. - to explain why the stock price is only +11% vs. 20-40%.
1/4

[₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い @BeenThereCap]

I now see Peter (10x or 100x deeper than me on the situation) said precisely the same thing as me at the same time as me:
5/x

https://t.co/EVHXhoMQNA

[Peter Mantas @peter_mantas]

Truly mind boggling how $QURE isn't at $50 rn regardless of 4y data. Asymmetry will create shock and awe.

[The Bulwark @BulwarkOnline]

Sen. Tillis: "Did you actually tell Pulte you were going to punch him in the face?"

Bessent: "No, sir. I actually said I was going to kick his ass."

Tillis: "Good, I share the emotion…I'm not going to support Pulte for DNI…He lost me when he went after Powell."

[₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い @BeenThereCap]

I love $WULF management, and its business, so much. As power guys who happened to run data centers, they lucked into the perfect boom, AND QUICKLY REALIZED IT, and strategized/executed perfectly. I can't dream up why I would sell any of my stock any time in the next few years.

[TeraWulf @TeraWulfInc]

“It became clear that we weren’t just witnessing another technology cycle. We were witnessing the emergence of a new industrial demand class. For the first time in a very long time, demand growth wasn’t being constrained by capital. It was being constrained by physical infrastructure. That was the real “aha” moment for me.

Power wasn’t just part of the AI story, it was becoming the story.”

Read the full conversation with @PaulBPrager 👉

[₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い @BeenThereCap]

@conorsen Or someone at MARTA could pick up the phone and ask around?

I used to bill $1000-2000/hour (inflation adjusted) to, sometimes, find and cold-call experts in particular functions at multiple companies for insight-gathering interviews. They're usually happy to talk.

[₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い @BeenThereCap]

It is sooooooooo worth reading this brief thread just to get to the final-sentence payoff.

[Patrick McKenzie @patio11]

Transfer agent: So you see, when you changed banks in the years between the transaction and return of escrow, a wire failed and was returned.
Me: Oh, sorry about that.
TA: No worries. So we need your new banking information.
Me: Point me to the web page.
TA: Yes upload PDF at...

[₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い @BeenThereCap]

@dgt10011 Converts are "very rarely ever used by pristine tech companies"??

List of tech companies that have used converts, just off the top of my head plus a quick search: ABNB AMZN AMD BKNG CRM MELI NOW NVDA PANW SPOT SQ UBER WDAY

I've seen dozens more that are mid-cap but "pristine"

[₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い @BeenThereCap]

Dare I say "long $CLMT for its specialty chemicals business"?

h/t Flushy McFlushFace for the find

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

Supply chains are starting to break down

- motor oil, diesel oil, and specialty fluids categories to drop by 40%
- 70% of the dollar value of goods shipped in the US are transported by truck

Less motor oil and specialty fluids mean supply chains are becoming more fragile and more expensive.

Critical maintenance products become scarce, transportation costs rise, equipment downtime increases, and bottlenecks start to appear throughout the economy.

Meanwhile markets are at all time highs

[₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い @BeenThereCap]

NICHE HUMOR IS THE BEST HUMOR

[₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い @BeenThereCap]

@jbmp51 Please double-check for me. On my Pixel 10, there is a limited set of actions you can add or subtract from the swipe-down screen. "Location on/off" used to be one of those actions and no longer is. I would love to be wrong about that.

[₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い @BeenThereCap]

This story is ultimately about companies trying to force you to put their apps, a/k/a e-commerce spyware, on your phone.

My PC keyboard is a 19-year-old Microsoft Ergo 4000. The wrist rest is 75% duct tape, and half the keys have their character labels worn off. It's time.
1/x

[₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い @BeenThereCap]

I just received this email. LOL

Crypto Twitter is awash with accounts of similar *but legit-seeming* attempts via DM.

But this one? No one who actually deals with or might deal with BlackRock is ignorant enough to click on an unsolicited email that says "facilitate a deal flow"

[₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い @BeenThereCap]

@1lemonaday Nope.

[₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い @BeenThereCap]

Despite my trait of freakishly unemotional decisionmaking, my killer heuristic for individual stock position sizing is "minimize future unhappiness": Given my portfolio construction and everything I know about the business, industry, macro, market setup, etc., I ponder:
1/x