It’s been a while since I started my role, but I wanted to share this update with everyone. I’m happy to share that I started a position as Strategy & Growth Advisor at #Frontera! More to come on the great work we’re doing very soon. Frontera technology is the first ever demonstration of Al driven digital phenotyping of pediatric conditions such as autism. Our deeptech platform leverages Al/ML to create a robust video-based data model for early intervention and developmental disorders.
I am excited to take the next steps in my professional growth by enrolling in AI in Health Care: From Strategies to Implementation from Harvard Medical School #keeplearning
Everyone is predicting that pent up deal making and demand will lead to a robust 2024 end of year and active 2025. If you want to be part of the conversation, save April 7-9 on your calendar for the 2025 Autism Investor Summit. It will be better than ever!
Another big acquisition has hit the market in ABA after a long dry spell. Behavioral Innovations just sold to PE firm Tenex for reported $300M. This means a few things:
This listing is so stupid.
A $1.83M rev HVAC company could easily be 3 full time employees, no office staff, no systems and could be built in like 12 months.
I’ve seen it done - someone tried to sell me one last year they got to 1.9 in 16 months and offload it for $2M.
Businesses this small shouldn’t be priced on earnings - they should be priced on “difficulty to replicate”. Which in this case, is low difficulty. Because that’s actually the equation. Buy or build. How difficult is it to build and what will that cost in time or dollars vs buying.
“Creating value” isn’t creating cashflow, it’s creating an asset that is otherwise difficult to recreate. It’s creating moat with discernible differences.
Brokers won’t like that but if your cashflow is easy to replicate - you’ve created a gig not an asset.
This is a gig someone wants you to PG your house on. Heaaall no.
I’d pay around $100k for this business depending on depth of customer list and vehicles that come with.
It would honestly be easier to launch ground up due to having to retool the team anyways.
Part 1: Same video. One platform suppressing content, one actually showing it.
How do I know?
The first time this happened was a couple years ago when I posted a video on TikTok that got 12 views in 1 hour. Unusual for a content creator with 3.5 million followers.
No one in healthcare real estate is providing more competitive financing than us.
Sample Terms:
- 15 Years
- 100% LTV
- 6.5% - 8.5% Interest Only for 15 Years
- No Balloon Payment (Loan can be forgiven at maturity)
You might have guessed it.
Sale-leasebacks.
The real estate for a physician group in many cases is non-performing.
There's usually a better use for that capital.
The buildings are also worth more with in-place leases 90% of the time.
If the loan is maturing, sell the building, lease it back, and receive "net-lease" pricing for the asset.
Then re-allocate those proceeds to higher returning areas e.g., performing real estate, your business, other investments, etc.
They also caution anyone leaning on % of goals mastered for outcomes: "There is currently no consensus/guideline that defines progress or a successful treatment outcome for a patient [...], on either a short- or long-term basis, in terms of percentage of goals mastered."
The new ABA practice guidelines were just released and outline best practice in delivery of ABA services. If you're not familiar with them, you an view them here: https://t.co/KpvBo4XvQx
Some important metrics on caseloads. "A 1-2:10 case supervision and direct treatment ratios required for positive treatment outcomes, a 40-hour full-time [BCBA] may be able to provide 100-150 case supervision hrs each month to support 500–1500 hours a month of direct treatment."
Has anyone in the ABA space paid 15x or higher and been able to realize their return? I don’t believe so. As a business owner of you sell at more reasonable multiples you’ll be more likely to get a second round of success if you are rolling over equity. #showerthoughts
@zachmelloh26 You can either be the person spending the money or making the money. Which one do you want to be? Dangers of consumerism culture in general should be taught in school.