Tim Belden

Trader @SMBCapital - Equities, Options & Automated Trading - Co-Host of The Trading Floor Podcast

[Tim Belden @BeldenTim]

Like the look of the weekly/daily charts on WULF, CIFR, HUT within the datacenter names.

Maybe if QQQ can break above this range we've been stuck in, these could make another leg?

[Tim Belden @BeldenTim]

HOO HOO HOO HOOSIERS

[Ted Zhang @TedHZhang]

This video from Indiana Hoosiers head coach (protege of Nick Saban) has so many parallels to trading.

[Tim Belden @BeldenTim]

Main focus this year is stopping all the "leaks" in my trading. The shitty C or below trades, the undefined trades not in any of my playbooks, the anticipation trades just getting size in a range HOPING for something to happen.

$TSLA yesterday was a good rep. Extended to the downside, sentiment super negative following delivery #'s. Then we get a gap up and strength off the open.

Maybe the selling is done? What if $TSLA just needed to get delivery #'s out of the way? What if $TSLA just rips back to top of the range now?

It's all just hopefulness talking and the mind games that can happen. The reality is it has been relatively weak, below downtrending 10/20 ema and stuck inside a big daily range.

Sitting on my hands was a leak avoided yesterday which is a win. Today $TSLA crushed again and back below Friday's low. No trade was the best trade.

[Tim Belden @BeldenTim]

@MarketMLive I really appreciate that, thank you! If 2026 was anything like 2025 we will continue talking about themes. Please keep reaching out and we can talk about what's going on!

[Tim Belden @BeldenTim]

We saw some themes get smoked to end last year.
Quantum, datacenter, crypto, rare earth.

Interesting market environment so far this year. SPY/QQQ very tight on weekly/daily. Clear isolated pockets of strength in space, oil/energy, drones. Keeping a close eye on $RKLB, $PL, $LUNR, $ASTS, $SIDU, $XLE, $CVX, $XOM, $ONDS, $JOBY, $ACHR, $UMAC, $KTOS to name a few.

Fintech lending is one theme that just got my attention. $RKT, $SOFI look good. $UPST strong today.

Watching for potential IPO base breakout in $FIGR at 49.5 if this theme picks up steam.

[Mike Bellafiore @MikeBellafiore]

The "All on my own" trader is a myth that limits your P&L. If you want to be your best, stop hoarding your "secret sauce" and start building a team. 🧵

Trading is often sold as a solo journey, but the fastest way to find a new edge is through the eyes of someone who thinks differently from you.

What you’ll learn from this philosophy:

The Trust System: Collaboration isn't "willy-nilly"—it’s a systematic process of building trust with peers.

The Giver’s Advantage: Being a "default giver" opens doors to strategies and ideas you literally couldn't conceive of on your own.

The Achilles Heel Fix: When you stop hoarding tools and start sharing, you find partners who fill your blind spots.

The Insight:

"The more you share as a trader, the more you're going to get back. Most people are takers; they are only thinking about themselves. You should be thinking about how you can improve someone else's life and make their trading better. When you start thinking that way, you develop collaborations with people who think in completely different ways than you do. They will share ideas with you that you would literally never think of on your own."- @DaveMabe (1:08:00 👇)

#TradingPsychology #TradingMindset #Collaboration

Your Trading Strategy Will Fail Until You Understand This ONE Process https://t.co/zDX0AJtKe0 via @YouTube @GarrettDrinon @BeldenTim

[Tim Belden @BeldenTim]

One of the most significant catalysts of the year was the NBIS $19.4B deal with MSFT on 9/8.

The simple readthrough was 1) a datacenter stock got a HUGE hyperscaler deal and 2) the street needs to drastically increase their future revenue estimates on NBIS now, more than 10x.

The biggest catalysts can lead to multiple trades and can have major implications on other stocks...

You could have crushed the 1) AH breaking news trade, 2) NBIS 100 breakout swing, 3) CIFR/IREN sympathy daily breakouts

We dove into this catalyst in detail and how you could have crushed all four of these trades in the 5th episode of SMB Capital’s The Trading Floor Podcast.

Let's start 2026 off hot!

YouTube
https://t.co/IPQu9QJtV2

Spotify
https://t.co/NmKU0BCARi

[Tim Belden @BeldenTim]

Anyone remember FNMA from 12/30/24? This opportunity got overshadowed by the rest of the year but what a catalyst play to start the year.

FNMA made a massive move 11/6/24 off the election…why? Because it was thought that the new administration would privatize FNMA.

Then on 12/30 Bill Ackman goes on a Reuters interview saying he is sure Trump will privatize FNMA. Huge volume on day 1 and FNMA moves from 2.5 to 7.5 in two weeks.

The power of catalysts + liquidity.

[Tim Belden @BeldenTim]

2025 was the year of catalysts imo. HUGE opps in April tariff headlines, deep seek offered great trades end of Jan/Feb. Massive AI/datacenter deals throughout the year.

This is an area that I grew and improved on immensely in 2025. And this is the area I am most excited to continue to grow because I see the potential.

Being the best in this isn’t becoming a sell side analyst, it’s just digging a little deeper when you see a headline. Asking that follow up question to really understand the significance.

[Tim Belden @BeldenTim]

Been working on my yearly review lately. One custom ratio I like to focus on is what I call my leak to big win ratio.

Count all of the losses that are 5-10% of my daily stop (this is where I am “leaking” edge)

Count all of my wins that are greater than 40-50% of my daily stop (this is where I am building edge)

Leak to Big Win Ratio = count of 10% losses / count of 50% wins

My worst months the ratio is greater than 1. My best months the ratio is less than 1. I keep the losses as numerator because decreasing that count is my main focus.

I like this ratio rather than just focusing on the big losses because these “leaks” can go unnoticed in good stretches and drastically hurt consistency.

[JSC @jscherniack]

How A Single Comet Shortcut Can Save You Hours Every Morning

https://t.co/i7Mi78LeHg

I create a step by step guide to save yourself hours of premarket research each day and be prepared much faster on your universe of stocks with the click of ONE BUTTON . Hope you enjoy.

@PPLXfinance

[Tim Belden @BeldenTim]

@TheOneLanceB Born to Run by Christopher McDougall, absolute page turner for me

[Tim Belden @BeldenTim]

@UW_MSoccer @NCAASoccer Paid the ref with that pk call

[Tim Belden @BeldenTim]

@IndianaMSOC Anywhere else to stream this?

[Tim Belden @BeldenTim]

@NCAASoccer Will you be selling tickets for just one of the days?

[The League @the_league203]

Opening night for The League is tonight, May 26th 2016. Spectators are welcome. Alright