The Kelly Criterion is the purest mathematical edge-sizing formula ever written.
f* = (bp โ q) / b
Where:
b = odds received
p = probability of winning
q = 1 โ p
Full Kelly maximises long-term geometric growth.
Half Kelly is what almost every serious quant actually uses because full Kelly has brutal drawdowns.
Most people size positions by โhow confident I feel.โ
Thatโs not investing. Thatโs gambling with worse odds.
Compounding is not a โfeel-goodโ story. Itโs pure exponential math. $1,000 at 10% for 30 years = $17,449.
Same money at 15% = $66,211.
That extra 5% didnโt add 50% more money. It added nearly 4ร. The formula is simple: FV = PV ร (1 + r)^n.
Most people obsess over the r. The real edge is protecting the n โ time.
Every year you delay is a year the exponent never gets.
Math doesnโt care about your feelings. It only cares about the inputs.
@DividendExp@londonHenryGB Also, as UK left EU, there is likely to be a period of time when this person leaves whereby they are unable to claim disabled benefits in Spain, the government knows this.