Annual tweet: we’re about to finish the 5th 17 game regular season in the @NFL and once again no one has come close to Peyton Manning’s 16 game 2013 regular season:
*5,477 yards (NFL record)
*55 TD passes (NFL record)
*115.1 passer rating (NFL record)
I've been seeing these ups and downs in crypto since 2013 when I first went on CNBC to recommend $BTC. In 2017 I was among the seed investors in $FIL and $ZEC and this year I have started two DATs: $TAOX and $SBLX
I have seen this before.
I am a buyer at these levels in crypto because:
A) STABLECOIN VOLUME: In 2020, there were about $2.5 trillion in stablecoin transactions. In 2024, $27.6 trillion. In 2025: $50 Trillion (!). By comparison, Visa will have $15 trillion in transaction volume.
B) TOKENIZED STOCKS: In 2020, there was about $0 worth of trading volume on tokenized stocks. This year there will be about $1 trillion, which is still less than 1% of the $134 Trillion global volume of the stock market.
C) TOTAL TOKENIZATION OF REAL WORLD ASSETS: stocks, real estate, treasury bills, art, etc. Tokenized assets can be traded 24/7 on defi exchanges. This is a revolution in finance.
In 2020. there were less than $1 billion of tokenized assets. In 2025, there will be about $60 billion and by 2030, with all the current projects in place, the number is expected to be about $30 Trillion.
This means all the tokens related to tokenization infrastructure will experience massive growth.
D) VOLUME ON DEFI EXCHANGES: Defi exchanges have many benefits over centraized exchanges, including lower fees, faster execution, 24/7 trading, etc.
Volume in 2020 was less than a $100 billion. 2024 was about $2.5 Trillion. 2025 will be about $5 trillion. Exponential growth.
This, of course, benefits all the defi tokens and infrastructure players.
E) COUNTRIES INCLUDING CRYPTO IN STRATEGIC RESERVES:
This has gone from 1 or 2 in 2020 to 27 now, including the US, the UK, China, Luxembourg. Brazil, Switzerland, etc.
F) NUMBER OF GLOBAL CRYPTO USERS:
2020 - 100 million, 2024 - 560 million, 2025 (expected): 860 million. Next year over a billion.
Reminds me of the Internet. It wasn't until 2005 that the internet stocks really took off after the 2000 bust. What happened in 2005? Internet users passed 1 billion for the first time. Which is going to happen in the next few months.
CONCLUSION: We're still in inning one of an exponentially growing evolution of the global financial system.
In the interest of transparency: I've been an active buyer of $TAO $ETH $FLUID $INJ $LINK $AAVE and others.
ICYMI: Watch Yuma CRO @EvanMalanga and @jaltucher of @TAOSynergies $TAOX chat about why institutions are investing in Yuma Asset Management's funds
To learn more about Yuma Asset Management, visit https://t.co/YObiOfGorh https://t.co/FKGpdWzkXg
Casinos don’t predict who wins the next hand.
They win because math is on their side.
That’s trading.
Stop playing to be right. Start playing with the odds.
THE $7.4 TRILLION DETONATOR: AMERICA’S HIDDEN LIQUIDITY BOMB ABOUT TO OBLITERATE EVERY MARKET ASSUMPTION
The most dangerous number in financial history is hiding in plain sight.
$7.4 trillion parked in money market funds. Not in stocks. Not in real estate. Not in gold. Not in Bitcoin. In idle Treasury bills earning 5%+, waiting for a single Federal Reserve decision to unleash the largest capital reallocation event in human civilization.
This isn’t cautious investing. This is a civilizational coiled spring with a central bank trigger.
THE DETONATION PHYSICS
When the Fed cuts 150-200 basis points, MMF income collapses by $100-140 billion annually. That lost yield must hunt returns somewhere.
Each 1% MMF reallocation releases $74 billion.
10% rotation unleashes $740 billion … exceeding most nations’ GDP.
20% exodus deploys $1.48 trillion into risk assets.
The flows don’t trickle. They cascade through institutional pipes like a breaking dam.
THE HISTORICAL PATTERN NOBODY REMEMBERS
1998: $1.3T MMF → Fed cuts → Tech bubble ignites
2003: $2.1T MMF → Fed cuts → Housing mania begins
2009: $3.8T MMF → Fed cuts → Everything rallies 300%+
2025: $7.4T MMF → Fed signaling cuts → Unknown territory
Double the 2009 powder keg. But now Bitcoin exists as 24/7 institutional-grade scarcity with ETF rails.
THE FOUR HORSEMEN TRIGGERS
3-month T-Bill drops below 4.0% from 4.8%
Fed confirms sequential cuts beyond one-and-done
High-yield spreads compress below 350bps
Crypto ETF inflows sustain above $2B weekly
All four converging = detonation sequence.
THE BITCOIN MATHEMATICS
MMF pile: $7.4 trillion at 5% yields
Bitcoin supply: 21 million fixed, 96% mined
BlackRock IBIT: $100B AUM in under 10 months
If 5% rotates ($370B): Bitcoin $280-350K
If 10% rotates ($740B): Bitcoin $550-700K
If 15%+ with sovereign buying: Bitcoin $1M+
Not speculation. Thermodynamics. Finite supply meets infinite liquidity in mathematical collision.
THE MECHANISM
MMFs flow through institutional architecture:
Prime brokerages rebalancing
Pension allocation triggers hitting
Corporate treasury deployments
Sovereign wealth hunting uncorrelated returns
ETFs absorbing without selling pressure
Every pipe terminates at scarcity. Only one asset is provably finite, instantly settlable, globally accessible 24/7: Bitcoin.
THE FED’S CHOICE
Keep rates high: Recession, debt spiral
Cut aggressively: $7.4T liquidity tsunami
Bond markets price 150-200bps cuts through 2026. The choice is made. The spring releases.
THE COUNTDOWN
When 3-month yields crater from 5% to 3%, capital doesn’t deliberate. It hunts yield with systemic urgency.
Gold supply: uncertain
Real estate: illiquid
Stocks: expensive
Bonds: debasing
Bitcoin: mathematically provable 21M cap with instant global settlement.
The largest dry powder pile in history aims at civilization’s scarcest asset.
The trigger is Fed policy in motion.
The timing is bond-market priced.
The outcome is thermodynamic inevitability.
When the spring releases, price discovery enters unknown physics.
Choose accordingly.
Why I think $TAO will go to $2100 CONSERVATIVELY (plus the affect then on $TAOX stock):
A) the halving - reduces selling pressure each day. High demand, lower supply = price goes up.
B) Subnet deregistration: Every new subnet increases demand for $TAO because you have to burn TAO to register.
C) Institutional demand for subnets: Starting with Grayscale but then there are others coming: to buy a subnet token you HAVE TO PAY with $TAO. Increases demand (right when supply goes down with halving)
D) Ridges, etc: Ridges is about to release a commercial product. It's going to crush Cursor, a $27 BILLION company. Will increase demand for subnet tokens, plus will show the world they can start a billion dollar company for less than a million dollars.
E) DeFi on TAO (like Cartha, SN35): Almost all the top 20 crypto tokens are DeFI tokens. DeFi is just beginning on TAO. The emissions give extra advantages to trade on TAO that other DeFi protocols don't have. This is enormous demand that is just beginning.
F) More institutional demand for TAO. Not only is $TAOX growing (see below) but other institutional players are beginning (see Grayscale TAO ETF)
G) $TAOX is the only way to get exposure to TAO in your 401k to this and other pieces of the TAO ecosystem, depending on the directions TAOX goes.
TAO is a $4 Billion market cap with 100 companies denominated in TAO sitting on top of it. At least 20 of those companies/subnets are worth over $1 billion, some worth $10 billion.
That's conservatively (if just 20 are worth JUST $1B) then that puts $TAO at $2100 and $TAOX at $50.
But Ridges alone can be worth $20B, as could Cartha, BitMind, Yanez, Chutes, Targon, Data Universe, Hone, Affine, Bitcast, Zeus, etc etc.
US TREASURY JUST BOUGHT BACK $4B OF ITS OWN DEBT
Read that again. Yes read it again. The issuer of the world’s reserve currency is now in the market buying back its IOUs. One of the largest Treasury buybacks in history.
Translation: the system is eating itself. Liquidity black hole, debt spiral feedback loop, fiat ouroboros.
When the printer has to buy the promises it already made, the game isn’t “strong economy” … it’s endgame mechanics.
This isn’t bullish or bearish. This is structural collapse disguised as policy.
Bitcoin isn’t an “alternative.” It’s the exit door before the fire spreads.
#Bitcoin #DeDollarization #DebtCrisis
Now that Tulsi Gabbard has officially referred Barack Obama to the DOJ for criminal prosecution can we also add money laundering to Obama’s list of charges?
Barack Obama paid for his multiple mansions with Quid Pro Quo book deals laundering US taxpayer money back to himself
Hearing that a lot of young finance folks in NYC are spending their free time buying tickets on Ticketmaster and flipping them as a side hustle.
Some are making real money -- apparently there’s a lot of buzz around it.
We have two identical groups of 8 gauges with anomalous gauge at position (3,1). The degree of anomaly is identical in both groups ~ 8 deg.
Humans have extreme hyperacuity with respect to detecting angular orientation of line segments—needle gauge is so much faster to read. The arc gauges all look the same even though the amount of deviation is the same, about 8 degrees. Even if you concentrate, it's hard to tell which one is off.