Лев Бергман🔴✨(💙,🧡) 🛡️ 🌘🌊📘pre🐐✨🔴

🏰 ⚙️

[Sentio @sentioxyz]

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[Giorgi @Giorgi03684560]

@BinanceWallet Base🫶

[TSTA Markets @tstamarkets]

Although the basis trade is back in focus, due to the
anticipated BoJ rate hike and rising Japanese CPI, I will continue betting on JPY in 2025 after this Q2 modest bounce following the USD sell-off. However, we should remain cautious when examining the Japanese yield curve itself. I’ll explain my logic below using JGB numbers!

The bid to cover ratio is approximately 2.20 for 40y bonds on a ~$3.5 billion volume from the Ministry of Finance. The last time I saw this level was in July (you know what happened next, but this isn’t the same case).
Note: poor demand for long term.
This partially triggered further sell-offs in 30y and 20y JGB. As a result, the yield curve is moving intriguingly on the longer end.
Note: no demand for long-duration JPY bonds.
Why is this so interesting? Because it also drives a lack of demand for UST (just my View).

What should come next according to my logic? The BoJ will likely take maturing bonds and redirect those flows into long-term debt instead of short-term debt to boost bid to cover ratios and demand for 20y+. Such actions could inversely rebalance the yield curve and put pressure on short-term yields (bounce on poor demand here). As short-term Japanese yields rise and U.S. yields expected to fall, the yield spread becomes critical.
The 2y spread takes center stage, driving a historical correlation with a USD/JPY downtrend (less engagement in carry trades). Yen demand surges, and the yen strengthens below 140.

Timing for this? H2 2025. I haven’t spent hours analyzing the Japanese refinancing plan, but it should unfold a few months from now. The most important question is: what comes first before this scenario? What could happen in the interim? A bigger USD/JPY bounce before the drop, driven by higher carry interest from retail traders who ignore the BoJ’s potential priorities in the JGB curve. I saw this last year when I was shorting USD/JPY above 160. Now, with proper BoJ moves to stimulate long-term demand, the potential risk lies in the short-term spread! Watch out and react!

graph: World Government Bonds

by Nikita Chemodanov

[Ihor Lachenkov @igorlachenkov]

Make Ukraine nuclear again

[Wu Tang is for the Children @WUTangKids]

We’re there

[Team of Zina Portnova @Zn_Portnova]

Українські будинки атакують мирні російські ракети. Італійська карикатура.

[Serhii Sternenko @sternenko]

Russians hit the sarcophagus of the Chornobyl nuclear power plant.

This is a peace signal. Putin simply wants peace. Look, russia is for peace. Peace, isn't it clear?

[Sir John Met.base.eth @SirJohnMet]

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[Sir John Met.base.eth @SirJohnMet]

Mint Mickey the Mouse https://t.co/17UAm3agLu

[Anonymous @YourAnonCentral]

Give Ukraine Tomahawks.

@POTUS @SecBlinken @SecDef

[Eric S. Raymond @esrtweet]

@elonmusk Nobody is demanding a ceasefire in Ukraine because a ceasefire would effectively concede Putin what he wants by allowing him to continue and consolidate his control of occupied Ukrainian territory. This is not an acceptable outcome.

[Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 @reshetz]

Literally just ISIS with gas and old nukes

[Nariman Aliev @narik_aliev]

Genocide is when tragedies become routine.

Lviv 04.09.24

[Serhii Sternenko @sternenko]

Today, russians attacked Ukraine with many missiles made from American components.

russia can hit Ukraine with weapons with American chips. But Ukraine cannot hit russia with American missiles in response.
Absurdity.

[Financial Times @FT]

Ukrainian officials have long argued that the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate operates as an arm of the Russian Orthodox Church to undermine Ukraine https://t.co/uFLgkmYJBV

[Ihor Lachenkov @igorlachenkov]

Just look at this. These monstrosities do not care who to kill.

Ukraine desperately needs air defenses to save the lives of its people and children from absolutely ruthless russian terroristic attacks.

#RussiaIsATerroristState

[WallStreetBets @wallstreetbets]

how I manage my $420.69 portfolio

[Ihor Lachenkov @igorlachenkov]

Just minutes ago, russia has launched a rocket into the residential building in the center of Dnipro city, destroying the whole section from the very top to the bottom floors.

Civilian people lived in that building. There are reports of wounded.

Ukraine needs air defenses, and it needs them every single day! Our people and the lives of our people heavily rely on our partner's support.

[Solana @solana]

gm

[fractalia.base.eth @fractalia2]

@krenshyax I am not indian, this is not FUD. This is real: For 4 years @zksync team deceived community as network activity is important and valuable. They used airdrop expectance of community and they benefit from it while marketing. But at airdrop they ignored network activity. #zkscam