Bespoke Weather

Bespoke Weather Services - The premier blended weather and natural gas analytics service custom-designed for gas investors, traders, and brokers.

[Bespoke Weather @Bespoke_Weather]

Another weekend with much warmer forecast changes has sent #natgas prices plunging yet again. We are solidly on pace for the 2nd warmest December on record in the U.S, behind only December 2015.

More analysis at:

https://t.co/omoCt9KwFA

$UNG $KOLD $BOIL

[Bespoke Weather @Bespoke_Weather]

@BillKarins @carlquintanilla @bespokeinvest @CNBC It is on pace to be the 2nd warmest on record, as of right now, behind only December 2015, as measured by Gas-Weighted Degree Days (#natgas usage).

[Bespoke Weather @Bespoke_Weather]

Colder changes did not materialize over the weekend, as the pattern beyond the next few days simply oscillates around normal demand levels, keeping us on pace for a rather normal November as a whole.

More at:

https://t.co/omoCt9KwFA

#natgas #weather $UNG

[Bespoke Weather @Bespoke_Weather]

NAT GAS EIA DATA HIT: 63 bcf net implied flow for the week ending October 29th vs. BWS estimate of 65 bcf and market expectations from 58 to 70 bcf. This compares to 5-year average of 38 bcf. #natgas $UNG $BOIL $KOLD

[Bespoke Weather @Bespoke_Weather]

NAT GAS EIA DATA HIT: 87 bcf net implied flow for the week ending October 22nd vs. BWS estimate of 85 bcf and market expectations from 80 to 92 bcf. This compares to 5-year average of 62 bcf. #natgas $UNG $BOIL $KOLD

[Bespoke Weather @Bespoke_Weather]

#Weather is the story in the #natgas market this morning, with colder forecast changes, especially in the ECMWF EPS modeling, though even the latest GEFS maintains enough blocking to support colder risks. Prices are 🚀🚀🚀

More at:

https://t.co/omoCt9KwFA

$UNG $BOIL $KOLD

[Bespoke Weather @Bespoke_Weather]

NAT GAS EIA DATA HIT: 92 bcf net implied flow for the week ending October 15th vs. BWS estimate of 90 bcf and market expectations from 82 to 96 bcf. This compares to 5-year average of 69 bcf. #natgas $UNG $BOIL $KOLD

[Bespoke Weather @Bespoke_Weather]

@Pierpao08661105 If it is 93-94 bcf, we'll take it 😁

Over that, our call would not be very good.

[Bespoke Weather @Bespoke_Weather]

We are looking for a build of 90 bcf in today's #natgas EIA storage report, well larger than the 5-year average of 69 bcf, due to low overall demand and higher wind. If wrong, risk is skewed toward a lower build, in our view.

https://t.co/omoCta27x8

#weather $UNG

[Bespoke Weather @Bespoke_Weather]

Projected #weather demand remains generally low, and climate models, such as the CFS (shown here) paint a warm, bearish picture for November. Is it on the right track? We discuss the forecast and risks:

https://t.co/omoCta27x8

#natgas $UNG

[Bespoke Weather @Bespoke_Weather]

While we have had some #weather model volatility recently, the theme of generally low demand has not wavered, which is important to keep in mind.

Get more analysis of weather and fundamentals with a free trial at:

https://t.co/omoCt9KwFA

#natgas $UNG

[Bespoke Weather @Bespoke_Weather]

NAT GAS EIA DATA MISS: 81 bcf net implied flow for the week ending October 8th vs. BWS estimate of 90 bcf and market expectations from 82 to 96 bcf. This compares to 5-year average of 79 bcf. #natgas $UNG $BOIL $KOLD

[Bespoke Weather @Bespoke_Weather]

For today's EIA #natgas storage report, we are looking for a build of 90 bcf, which would reflect tighter supply / demand balances vs the last couple of numbers, mostly thanks to very low wind. This compares to the 5-year average build of 79 bcf.

https://t.co/omoCt9KwFA

$UNG

[Bespoke Weather @Bespoke_Weather]

Overnight #weather models continued the cooler shift, helping #natgas prices advance higher this morning, though the pattern remains far from being cold.

https://t.co/omoCt9KwFA

$UNG $KOLD $BOIL

[Bespoke Weather @Bespoke_Weather]

12z models, while not *cold*, moved notably cooler in the medium range, providing a lift to #natgas prices from midday on.

Don't miss a beat this season where weather is concerned. Give our services a test drive with a FREE trial at:

https://t.co/omoCt9KwFA

#weather $UNG

[Bespoke Weather @Bespoke_Weather]

Chilly #weather over in Europe gives way to much warmer conditions heading into next week.

Get these maps daily with a Trader Level subscription at:

https://t.co/omoCt9KwFA

#natgas $UNG

[Bespoke Weather @Bespoke_Weather]

Total #natgas supply has fallen back under last year's levels, thanks to this week's production decline along with a bump back higher in LNG exports. This is helping to negate any bearish #weather influences.

More analysis at:

https://t.co/omoCt9KwFA

$UNG

[Bespoke Weather @Bespoke_Weather]

With the very warm start to the month, and a forecast for general continued warmth, we are projecting this month to feature the lowest demand (measured by GWDDs) of any October in our historical dataset (back to 1980).

https://t.co/omoCt9KwFA

#natgas #weather $UNG

[Bespoke Weather @Bespoke_Weather]

NAT GAS EIA DATA MISS: 118 bcf net implied flow for the week ending October 1st vs. BWS estimate of 106 bcf and market expectations from 100 to 118 bcf. This compares to 5-year average of 81 bcf. #natgas $UNG $BOIL $KOLD

[Bespoke Weather @Bespoke_Weather]

NAT GAS EIA DATA HIT: 88 bcf net implied flow for the week ending September 24th vs. BWS estimate of 85 bcf and market expectations from 80 to 93 bcf. This compares to 5-year average of 72 bcf. #natgas $UNG $BOIL $KOLD