polyaddict

polymarket OG
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[polyaddict @BetOnPoly]

I track mispriced odds on @Polymarket so you don't have to.

Follow for daily alpha on prediction markets.

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[polyaddict @BetOnPoly]

two days ago @Polymarket had cobolli at 94% to win his match. tonight hes a coin flip, dead even with arnaldi and $3.4M traded. thats clay for you, one round youre the lock and the next youre 50/50. the surface humbles everyone eventually

[polyaddict @BetOnPoly]

can the spurs actually bounce back tonight? the market has san antonio at 66% to take game 2 at home, basically calling game 1 a road blip for the knicks. but go down 0-2 at home and suddenly its a full blown crisis in the finals

[polyaddict @BetOnPoly]

@NateSilver538 france nudging ahead of england in the model but 17% is still barely a favorite. thats the whole story of this world cup, the top tier is so bunched that one fit defender like saliba actually moves the needle. genuinely wide open at the top

[polyaddict @BetOnPoly]

the market has the knicks at 54% to win the title but just 34% to take game 2. translation: ny wins the series but likely drops the next game in san antonio. home court priced to perfection, the series and the single game telling totally different stories

[polyaddict @BetOnPoly]

@Polymarket flipped the entire finals on one game: knicks now 53% to win it all, up from 36% at tipoff. but markets overreact to game 1 every single year. san antonio dropping the opener isnt the same as san antonio being done. value might be hiding here

[polyaddict @BetOnPoly]

@NBCNews brunson drops 30, knicks take game 1, and the market flips overnight: new york now 56% to win it all after sitting around 36% pre-tip. one game turned san antonio from clear favorites into underdogs. series odds are humbling like that

[polyaddict @BetOnPoly]

@Polymarket has auger-aliassime at just 6% to beat cobolli at roland garros, M traded. the market already wrote the ending on this one

[polyaddict @BetOnPoly]

@ABC the 1999 finals rematch nobody asked for but somehow everyone needed. spurs beat these exact knicks for their first ever title back then, and the market has san antonio at 64% to do it again. some rivalries just refuse to stay buried

[polyaddict @BetOnPoly]

@ESPNFC a hat trick in the final and france still lost somehow, genuinely brutal. the market has them at 17% for 2026, one of the highest on the board. thats basically the mbappe tax, one player dragging an entire nations odds up almost by himself

[polyaddict @BetOnPoly]

@Polymarket has argentina, the reigning world champions, at just 9% to defend the title. messis last dance and the market is basically writing them off already. defending a world cup is brutal, sure, but 9% feels low for the side that just did it

[polyaddict @BetOnPoly]

@AP bass advances to the november runoff and the market somehow still has spencer pratt at 13% to win it all. a reality tv name holding 13% in an actual mayoral race tells you how much pure novelty money is floating around this one

[polyaddict @BetOnPoly]

@NateSilver538 the youth vs experience angle is basically the whole series in one line. the market has the spurs at 64% for game 1, betting their ceiling outweighs the inexperience. poise has held up all playoffs, but finals pressure is a different animal entirely

[polyaddict @BetOnPoly]

there was a time brazil were the automatic pick to win any world cup. five titles, the most beautiful football on the planet. now the market has them at 8% and nobody even blinks. dynasties dont fall overnight, they just quietly fade until the magic is gone

[polyaddict @BetOnPoly]

everyones romanticizing ronaldos sixth world cup. @Polymarket has portugal at 10% to win it and honestly thats generous for a squad leaning this hard on a 41 year old. the fairytale and the math just arent the same thing

[polyaddict @BetOnPoly]

@ESPNFC ronaldo at 41 heading to a sixth world cup is absurd longevity, genuinely. but the market still has portugal at just 9% to win it. turns out one legendary career cant single-handedly drag a number like that up on its own

[polyaddict @BetOnPoly]

how is the market only giving germany 6% to win the world cup? four-time champions with a deep squad, written off before a ball is even kicked. either the talent really fell off or theres value hiding in that number

[polyaddict @BetOnPoly]

@SkySportsNews england arrive in miami with all the brotherhood energy and the market still has them at just 11% to win the whole thing. love the vibes but bettors have seen this movie before. talk is cheap until the knockouts actually start

[polyaddict @BetOnPoly]

wemby dragging the spurs back to the finals is the best thing to happen to the nba in years. appointment tv again and it isnt close

[polyaddict @BetOnPoly]

two and a half million dollars traded on mensik vs rublev at roland garros, and after all that money @Polymarket still cant split them: a perfect 50/50. sometimes the market studies everything and lands exactly where it started. clay is chaos

[polyaddict @BetOnPoly]

the 2026 nba finals are set and @Polymarket already has a clear lean: spurs 64%, knicks 35%. wild when you remember san antonio were underdogs in their own series a week ago. wemby flipped the entire board