BetRecon

Football Analytics — Statistical projections, power ratings and historical results across all football competitions.

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Norway [1286] vs Portugal [1310]

🏠 Norway have found the net in each of their last 20. Erling Haaland has found the net in each of his last 6 appearances. There's no record of a prior meeting between these two in our database.
🚌 Goncalo Inacio is on a 3-match scoring run.

#NORPOR #NationsLeagueA

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Israel [982] vs Rep of Ireland [1006]

🏠 Israel’s last 9 matches have all gone over 2.5 goals. There's no record of a prior meeting between these two in our database.
🚌 Rep of Ireland have conceded in their last 3 matches.

#ISRREP #NationsLeagueB

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Germany [1235] vs Greece [1135]

🏠 Germany have scored in 10 consecutive matches. Jonathan Burkardt has found the net in each of his last 3 appearances. These sides last met back in June 2024, the hosts winning 2-1.
🚌 Greece are unbeaten in 3 matches.

#GERGRE #NationsLeagueA

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Gibraltar [579] vs Andorra [628]

🏠 Form is in a slump for Gibraltar — 10 straight defeats. Last meeting back in September 2024: a 1-0 win for the hosts.
🚌 A barren run for Andorra — 24 without a victory.

#GIBAND #NationsLeagueD

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Austria [1147] vs Kosovo [1089]

🏠 The defence has been leaky for Austria — conceding in 6 straight matches. No head-to-head record between these teams in our database.

#AUSKOS #NationsLeagueB

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Serbia [1083] vs Netherlands [1263]

🏠 Serbia have conceded in 6 consecutive matches. Our database holds no previous meetings between these sides.
🚌 Netherlands have found the net in each of their last 17.

#SERNET #NationsLeagueA

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Denmark [1165] vs Wales [1083]

🏠 Denmark have scored in their last 8 matches. Last meeting back in June 2021: a 4-0 win for the hosts.
🚌 Wales have conceded in 3 straight matches.

#DENWAL #NationsLeagueA

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Czechia [1089] vs Croatia [1227]

🏠 Czechia have not won in 4 matches. Last meeting back in October 2025: a 0-0 draw.
🚌 Croatia have scored in their last 7 matches.

#CZECRO #NationsLeagueA

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England [1389] vs Spain [1453]

🏠 England have a 3-match unbeaten run. Harry Kane is on a 3-match scoring run. These sides last met back in September, finishing 0-0. Neither side holds the edge across their last 6 meetings.
🚌 Spain are unbeaten in their last 16. Lamine Yamal has either scored or assisted in each of his last 6 appearances.

#ENGSPA #NationsLeagueA

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North Macedonia [1029] vs Switzerland [1228]

🏠 North Macedonia have not won in their last 4. No head-to-head record between these teams in our database.
🚌 Switzerland have scored in their last 8 matches. Fabian Rieder and Johan Manzambi have both been involved in goals across recent matches.

#NORSWI #NationsLeagueB

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Faroe Islands [862] vs Kazakhstan [887]

🏠 Faroe Islands have scored in their last 4 matches. These sides last met back in November 2025, the hosts winning 1-0.
🚌 Kazakhstan are unbeaten in 3 matches.

#FARKAZ #NationsLeagueC

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San Marino [547] vs Finland [905]

🏠 San Marino have lost 8 in a row. These sides last met back in November 2023, the hosts losing 1-2.
🚌 Finland have shipped goals in each of their last 7.

#SANFIN #NationsLeagueC

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Iceland [924] vs Estonia [780]

🏠 Last meeting back in January 2023: a 1-1 draw.
🚌 The defence has been leaky for Estonia — conceding in 9 straight matches.

#ICEEST #NationsLeagueC

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Slovenia [1057] vs Scotland [1155]

🏠 A barren run for Slovenia — 6 without a victory. These sides last met back in October 2017, finishing 2-2.

#SLOSCO #NationsLeagueB

[BetRecon @BetReconCom]

@pow_m_pow MC simulation is using way more inputs - I'm just saying that's probably the main reason why looking at their first 5 rounds. If Liverpool starts creating more chances it will definitely show in the projections.

[BetRecon @BetReconCom]

This is a Monte Carlo simulation of the English Premier League season. Every matchday, we replay the rest of the season 100,000 times. Each simulation starts from the current league table, running all remaining fixtures through our football model.

[BetRecon @BetReconCom]

Sweden [1075] vs Romania [1038]

🏠 The defence has been leaky for Sweden — conceding in 12 straight matches. These sides last met back in November 2019, the hosts winning 2-0.
🚌 Romania have conceded in their last 3 matches.

#SWEROM #NationsLeagueB

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Italy [1209] vs Belgium [1237]

🏠 Goals are flowing for Italy — they've scored in 9 straight. The hosts hold the recent edge in this matchup with 3 wins in the last 4 meetings. Last meeting back in November 2024: a 1-0 win for the hosts.
🚌 Belgium have conceded in 4 straight matches. The visitors have lost 3 of the last 4 meetings between these sides.

#ITABEL #NationsLeagueA

[BetRecon @BetReconCom]

The simulation is auto-updating the inputs based on their recent performance. Generally speaking, both have a very slim chance of winning the league.

The simulation took into consideration the fact that Liverpool's ratio of shots on target at home is quite poor: 1.0 (shots on target scored ÷ conceded) and Brighton's ratio at home is 2.3. You can check this in our standings table.

These projections are updating after each matchday, so these estimates will evolve.

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@pow_m_pow Please click the link to see the latest projections, you're looking at a stale banner.

[BetRecon @BetReconCom]

Poland [1068] vs Bosnia-Herzegovina [1031]

🏠 Goals are flowing for Poland — they've scored in 14 straight. Last meeting back in October 2020: a 3-0 win for the hosts.
🚌 Bosnia-Herzegovina have conceded in 10 consecutive matches.

#POLBOS #NationsLeagueB