NBA’s back. From here to June, this is what the board looks like on PRO: hundreds of edges a slate across prediction markets, PPHs, offshores and retail books, flagged against the True Line.
Let the volume begin.
Size isn't the problem anymore. Finding the edge is.
PRO flags the props off the True Line, across every book on one screen. Less time in tabs, more money down.
At one point yesterday afternoon at PM’s you could have gotten to win 40K on a prop like Kyle Pitts over 2.5 receptions at a better price than any retail book. Amongst others. Never thought we would see the day NFL props were more liquid than some sides and totals in smaller sports
We added three more PPH books to the PRO screen this weekend.
BetFastAction
EZPlay (also Alamo88, Fesster, WagerHQ, Betusanytime)
LVAction (also PickYourAction)
Want the full list? DM us. We add what pros bet.
A fair price isn't a random slider you set yourself.
It's why we don't let you weight your own books on PRO. That's not a missing feature. It's the point. One True Line, built on six seasons of historical book efficiency, bias measured per market and stripped.
The value is the number. Not a guess at one.
The first episode of Off Script is here 🚨
@ShipTheJustice built a CFP simulator that raises a bigger question: when do you trust yourself over the model?
He joins @jacob_gramegna for the full show: latest news, mailbag, what grinds our gears & +EV moves
Presented by @ProphetX
🚨 PSA before NFL season 🚨
More content coming your way this year than ever. Here's the full rundown of everything I'm on and where to find it. Bookmark this 🧵👇
Rather not bounce between channels? Every piece of content we make lives in one spot:
🔗 https://t.co/XQv02F2N1f
American odds are no longer available on Novig.
While percentages may not be native for sports fans today, moving away from sportsbook-style odds is another step toward building a product that looks like what it is: a financial market.
We are committed to making the transition seamless for our members. If you're used to American odds, our team built a tool to help make the switch: https://t.co/uKtuVk10A4
I have some ZAG takes on @Novig switching over to percentages instead of american odds. To me it feels like a reactionary change to get upset about, but doesn't really matter at all.
1. If you use a good odds screen, I use @betstamp pro, it still displays the american odds and the liquidity, so it really takes no extra work with the right tools to know what you are betting into (see photos below).
2. There are 100 free implied probability calculators online, even NoVig has one on their website to use. At worst, it takes a few extra seconds to know what to execute (I linked it in first comment).
3. It will become something that we all get more used to with time. People are upset simply because its different, but it wont take long to know 51% is -104, 52% is -108, 60% is -150 instinctively and literally make ZERO difference with a little practice.
4. If this helps makes PMs "look less like gambling" then its obviously a win for anyone who optimizes and scales using PMs in the small chance it increases the longevity of these markets as they deal with some state led backlash.
5. It might make some rec bettors more aware of price sensitivity. Not sure if thats a win or a loss for the general markets, but as someone who makes content around beating the markets and remaining price sensitive, I see it as a win.
Just gather the right tools, put in a few extra seconds when betting now, and get the practice to where it requires no extra work.
Going 14-1 in a sport I dont know is possible because I have the right tools to study the market with attention to detail and speed.
Shoutout @betstamp for being the primary resource that I use.
14-1 is in large part luck, being winning over 15 bets is not when only 1 was -CLV
Most betting models fail for the same reasons 📉
We break down how sharp bettors actually build and evaluate models, from scratch to real money decisions
Full Q&A on Circles Off with @RobPizzola and @PlusEVAnalytics 🍿
Modeling is the part of sports betting nobody wants to talk about because it's hard and most people are doing it wrong. Sat down with @PlusEVAnalytics to walk through how sharp bettors actually approach it. Worth your time if you're serious about this stuff.
I am going to live stream at 11am ET going over NBA Player Props using @betstamp pro for Game 1s in NBA Playoffs.
Plan is to go book by book looking for +EV props (FD, DK, MGM, 365, Rivers + any books you’d like me to include).
I will also respond to props from the chat.