⚾️ MLB Play (6/12)
Spencer Strider o5.5 Ks
#BravesCountry
Strider has averaged 6.1 strikeouts through his 7 starts, recording 43 punchouts overall. He’s gone over this number in 4 of those outings, including 3 starts with at least 8 strikeouts (8, 8, and 9). There have been a few inconsistent starts, but his overall production still sits above this line.
Strider owns a 10.8 K/9, ranking in the 86th percentile, while his 6.1 strikeouts per game place him in the 98th percentile. He’s also averaging 5 innings and over 21 batters faced per start, giving him plenty of opportunities to rack up strikeouts when he’s efficient.
Nearly half of his pitches are four-seam fastballs (48%), which he pairs with a slider thrown 26.2% of the time and a curveball at 15.1%. The velocity up in the zone combined with the sharp breaking stuff has consistently generated whiffs and put hitters away.
Against RHP this season, the Mets are batting .243 with a 22.3% strikeout rate, and several projected hitters bring significant swing and miss tendencies into this game⬇️
A. Ewing – 32.0% K rate
M. Melendez – 31.4% K rate
B. Baty – 27.2% K rate
Juan Soto is the obvious exception, with an elite 13.1% K rate and excellent plate discipline, but the rest of the lineup offers enough high strikeout bats for Strider to capitalize on throughout the night.
The H2H history is limited but worth noting. Soto has handled Strider well in 19 plate appearances, while Alvarez has struck out in half of his 10 career plate appearances against him, and Bichette has also fanned in 50% of a small 6 plate appearance sample. The samples are too small to carry much predictive value, but they fit the profile of Strider’s ability to overpower aggressive, power oriented hitters.
With a season average sitting at 6.1 strikeouts, elite swing and miss metrics, and a matchup featuring multiple hitters with strikeout rates north of 27%, the over has a strong case. If Strider is locating his fastball and slider the way he typically does, he has a clear path to finishing above this number.
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Sonny Gray O16.5 Outs
#DirtyWater
Sonny Gray has quietly been one of the more reliable pitchers in baseball when it comes to working deep into games. He’s cleared this line in 6 of his last 10 starts and has recorded 18+ outs in 5 of those 6 covers. When he’s locating early and keeping traffic off the bases, Boston has shown they’re comfortable letting him pitch into the 6th and beyond.
The matchup sets up nicely as well. Texas has been one of the weaker offenses in baseball recently, ranking below average against right-handed pitching over both the last 14 and 30 days. Their road splits are even less impressive, and this lineup has struggled to consistently string together quality at-bats away from home.
I also like how Gray matches up against this projected Rangers lineup. His sweeper, cutter, sinker, and curveball give hitters multiple looks, and Texas projects to have several hitters carrying strikeout rates north of 25%. If Gray is generating swings and misses early, he’ll have a great chance to keep his pitch count under control and work efficiently through six innings.
Another thing that stands out is the game environment. Boston is currently projected as the favorite and this total sits relatively low, which is exactly the type of script we want for an outs prop. A competitive game with limited scoring should keep Gray on the mound as long as he’s effective.
At the end of the day, we only need 17 outs. That’s not asking Gray to throw a complete gem, it’s simply asking him to do what he’s done consistently throughout the season against a Rangers lineup that hasn’t been producing much offense lately. Give me Sonny Gray to provide some length tonight.
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WNBA Thursday SGPx 👑
Don’t like too much on the slate but like the big dimes tonight! Think Arike lines are a tad low (played her o14.5 pts), especially with a tighter rotation and in a good matchup. Should see 30+ here and has consistently gotten good volume this year when playing in non-blowout games even with Azzi starting recently.
That’s it outta me, .35u for this and let’s cash ❤️
Stanley Cup Final Game 5 bets 🏒🧵
Builder Shots SGP -105
We cashed the Hall 2+ and Staal 1+ combo at -120 in Game 4 but that same SGP is -162 for Game 5. I’ll trust that tandem to clear their marks for the fifth straight game and add Howden to help get the number down.
POTD 🎾🔥
Taylor Fritz MORE 14.5 Aces
Fritz’s serve is absolutely live on this Stuttgart grass. Last match vs Landaluce, he fired 25 aces and had 14 in the 1st set alone. That tells me the serve is popping early, not just because the match went 3 sets.
PickFinder backs it too:
✅ L5 on grass: 100% hit
✅ L10 on grass: 90% hit
✅ L10 avg: 19.0 aces
✅ Current line: 14.5
TennisRatio has Fritz averaging around 14+ aces per match over the last 52 weeks, and TennisStats has him over 15 aces per match in 2026. On grass, this is exactly the type of setup I want: big serve, fast court, and a match that books expect to be competitive enough for volume.
Bellucci win-a-set odds being live helps too. We don’t need a blowout — we need service games, and Fritz should get plenty.
Play: Taylor Fritz MORE 14.5 Aces
Confidence: 8.1/10 🔥
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🏀 Pauline Astier OVER 13.5 Pts+Asts
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⚾ Bryan Woo UNDER 5.5 HA
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Caris LeVert UNDER 11.5 Pts + Reb + Ast
Hit Rate Last 10 🎯 90%
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Caris LeVert has stayed under 11.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists in 9 of his last 10 games, averaging just 8.6 across that stretch. His median sits at 7.5, meaning this number is set nearly 4 points above where he typically lands.
Caris LeVert On The Season Ranks:
8.6 combined Pts + Reb + Ast average (L10)
7.5 median combined output (L10)
86% hit rate in H2H matchups vs Cleveland
16.6 minutes per game average (L10)
LeVert is operating as a depth piece in this Detroit rotation and Cleveland's defense has consistently kept him quiet throughout this series. He has cleared 11.5 just once in his last 10 outings and that was a 31-point outlier game that skews the entire sample.
Last 5 Games Pts + Reb + Ast:
5/13 vs CLE: 9 ✅
5/11 @ CLE: 31 ❌
5/09 @ CLE: 8 ✅
5/07 vs CLE: 11 ✅
5/05 vs CLE: 2 ✅
Outside of that one explosion, his ceiling in this series has been 11. The under is the play and the data backs it up completely.
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Braxton Ashcraft O 17.5 Pitching Outs
(-121 DraftKings | #LetsGoBucs )
MLB Friday Prop #1⚾️
❤️LIKE IF YOU WANT THE PAIR!
Ashcraft is one of the most well rounded, young arms in the league and he’s here to stay.
This season, Ashcraft ranks in the 90th percentile in xERA, 89th in xBA, 79th in Chase%, 70th in BB%, 70th in GB%. He’s been very solid in just about everything thus far this year.
He’s gone over this line in 5/8 games, and ending on the hook on one. He’s gone 7+ in each of his last two starts.
He’s facing the Phillies this evening who continue to be very poor offensively against righties.
They have had the 4th LOWEST wRC+ and the 4th LOWEST BB% against righties in the L2 weeks.
Philadelphia has the 5th LOWEST P/PA on the year. They swing the bat at a Top-10 rate and put the 6th most in play.
Pirates have had to use a decent amount of arms in the last two days and have Chandler starting tomorrow.
This roster has very little history against him. Like him to have lots of success in this one early on.
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Trey Yesavage o14.5 PO (-159 DK)
#BlueJays50 vs #RepDetroit
Tanner Bibee u6.5 Ks (-124 DK)
#ATOBTTR vs #GuardsBall
Dustin May u4.5 Ks (-105 DK)
#FountainsUp vs #STLCards
12 - 3 on Under K Props this SZN 💎
26 - 4 on O/U 14.5 PO Props L2 SZNs 🔥
🚨⚾️ MLB POTD #68 ⚾️🚨
*** POTD Record 46-21 ***
📊 32.5 on Underdog 📚
📊 No write-up needed ✍️
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