Beth Kühnel Mann

Political Polling, Analytics and Research @YouGov. @BritPollingCncl Next Gen Pollsters committee member. All views are my own.

[Patrick English @PME_Politics]

Few things which struck me in our new Labour members poll:

- Starmer is clearly Burnham’s closest rival
- In a two-horse race, that ~20pt Burnham-Starmer gap isn’t *massive*
- Membership definitely to the left of Starmer yet he’s still level with Rayner
- Streeting is struggling

[The Mercian @TheMercianNews]

🚨NEW: Birmingham council, Europe's largest council, can still not reach an agreement to govern following last week's local elections.

Currently, Reform and Labour refuse to work with each other, the Tories refuse to work with Greens and no one wants to work with Islamic independents.

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

Inspired by @davidshor asking the question in the US, we asked the blue button/red button question in the UK. 77% of Brits say they would press the blue button. Women are more likely than men to say blue.
Millennials are the most likely cohort to say red.

[Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley]

NEW from @Ipsos_in_the_UK / @itvpeston

Who do the public prefer in a head to head vs Farage and Reform UK?

- A Burnham led Labour govt +16
- A Starmer led Labour govt +11
- A Streeting led Labour govt +7
- A Rayner led Labour govt +6

[Steve Akehurst @SteveAkehurst]

NEW: What exactly happened in the local and devolved elections in England, Scotland and Wales last week?

@Persuasion_UK has some new polling out today which offers a first glimpse. Thread here on top line findings from each nation. 🧵

[Patrick English @PME_Politics]

Based on almost all results in, it looks like the YouGov LSS model has had a really good night in Denmark!

Just one party (F - Green Left) lies outside the model’s predicted intervals, out of a total 12 parties projected.

Very proud of the team, here! More to follow tomorrow 😊

[YouGov @YouGov]

YouGov's first MRP of the 2026 Senedd election shows Plaid Cymru on course to be the largest party

PC: 43 (+19 from 2021*)
Ref: 30 (+30)
Lab: 12 (-32)
Grn: 10 (+10)
Con: 1 (-25)
LD: 0 (-2)

*notional results had the last election been conducted on the new system based on data from Dr Jac Larner

[Patrick English @PME_Politics]

In response to that Guido article which allegedly “exposes” YouGov’s biasing

What we are doing is effectively, via MRP (the thing which gets elections right a lot), applying a likely voter model

What the Guido post doesn’t tell you is that *every pollster does that*. All of us

[Patrick English @PME_Politics]

What's important (and ironic) to note is that prior to the 2024 General Election, we had among the *highest* estimated vote share for Reform, and had them picking up some strong constituency wins in our MRP.

We were totally right about Reform then.

And we believe we are now.

[Ben Phillips @benphillips76]

I watched the Louis Theroux documentary on the Manosphere (it’s really good - do watch it). I saw it with my 18-year-old daughter. Five things I learned from viewing it with her:

[YouGov @YouGov]

A headline in this morning’s Times is inaccurate and they have issued this correction: “YouGov is not making changes to its methodology or to any previously published results. We are happy to make this clear.”

YouGov is not changing our methodology or results, which accurately predicted the Reform vote at the 2024 general election.
https://t.co/Lf2tXwQuad

[John Rentoul @JohnRentoul]

Yes, Reform is slipping in the opinion polls, including YouGov’s, says @markpack https://t.co/vO6AQQsKvO

[Patrick English @PME_Politics]

For avoidance of any doubt.

No, we at @YouGov have not changed *any* methods in response to Farage or Reform.

What we have agreed to do moving forward is publish an extra question in all our VI tables.

And we *never* made/make ‘tactical voting adjustments’ to our headline VI.

[Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley]

Important observation from today's @Ipsos_in_the_UK voting intention figures. Reform vote share has clearly fallen over past 6 months

Here is the Sept vs today
Reform 34% ~ 28%
Labour 22% ~ 21%
Conservative 14% ~ 17%
Greens 12% ~ 17%
Lib Dems 12% ~ 9%

So a 6 point fall for Reform in this past 6 months.

[Steve Akehurst @SteveAkehurst]

Extremely tin-pot episode but amusing only in that the extra question YouGov has agreed to publish (but still not make their headline VI) makes no meaningful difference to Refom’s raw vote share at all - 18% vs 17%

[YouGov @YouGov]

How does YouGov conduct voting intention polling? @anthonyjwells provides a walkthrough of the key steps we take to provide the new vote share figures each week

https://t.co/vsyaol8zji

[Dr. Jeevun Sandher MP @JeevunSandher]

Reducing energy bills by £150 per household. This helps us all.

But it *especially* helps the poorest and the squeezed middle.

Because essentials cost you more the lower your income 👇

[Steve Akehurst @SteveAkehurst]

The two-child benefit cap might have been popular, but consequences of keeping it (rising child poverty) would not be.

And its those Lab would have been punished most harshly on, as @Persuasion_UK research showed.

Politically right decision to lift it this far from election.

[Patrick English @PME_Politics]

REMINDER: We're hiring!🥳

@BethKMann1 and I are looking for a Senior Analytics Executive to join us here at @YouGov.

We're looking for someone with professional experience in political research, including the application of AI/ML to social data.

Link: https://t.co/jP5Yk5xOsw

[Beth Kühnel Mann @BethKMann1]

You can imagine our faces when we saw the final results of this poll - crazy times we're witnessing!

These results do follow the trends we're seeing across the UK right now, but I continue to be fascinated by voter flows at the moment and the clear trend towards fragmentation

[YouGov @YouGov]

Our latest Welsh voting intention poll, the first to use our new MRP methodology, shows a lead for Plaid Cymru in the race for the Senedd

Plaid Cymru: 30% (+9 from 2021 regional vote)
Reform UK: 25% (+24)
Labour: 18% (-18)
Conservatives: 13% (-12)
Lib Dems: 7% (+3)
Greens: 5% (+1)