Betix

customize your bet with anyone!

building composable & permisionless prediction market like "will Google Outperform M7 by 15% in 3 month?"

[Betix @Betix_Labs]

The first Agent to implement fully autonomous trading on polymarket

[一树🌴.𝟎𝐱𝐔 ➡️ICML @issue_wong]

🚀我把Predict-Raven开源了，这是一个可以在预测市场上自主交易的Agent框架。 在一个月的时间里他已经取得了实盘+8%的收益。我身边一小撮对AI trading和Polymarket感兴趣的极客和交易员朋友，已经开始部署和测试它

Predict-Raven有点像一只盘旋在上空持续寻找机会的小乌鸦，它会定时扫描数千个市场，持续地搜集证据，评估事件真实发生概率，再对比市场隐含的赔率。当它发现足够大的偏差时，就会自动下单、风控、止损，并记录下来自己的决策思路和依据

我做这个项目的动机源自主观性较强的几点判断：
1. AI已经拥有了和人类相等甚至超过人类的推理能力
2. 交易，在本质上可能和其他推理任务并没有不同，AI缺少的，可能只是更好的交互环境和上下文
3. 预测市场在交易里又尤为特殊，他们交易的，本质上是主观预估概率vs市场隐含概率的gap。如果你能比市场更准确地预测未来，你就能持续地获得收益。而预测本身，可能可以拆成两个相对独立的能力：信息搜集和推理。ai在一系列高难度benchmark的进步表明，ai在agentic search和reasoing上终会战胜人类，或者，已经战胜

人类的优势是直觉和通过社交来获得隐含信息。再退几步说，哪怕AI的推理能力仍然稍弱于人类，也能通过同时扫描复数个市场和7x24的待机，来等候定价错误的市场出现实现盈利，战胜市场某种程度上也是胜出人类的baseline。就像在德扑中：牌技高低只是盈利能力的一部分，更重要的是“找局”能力，能不能稳定地找上有漏洞的对手。以盈利为目的时，永远要在自己有edge的场子玩。

预测市场，尤其是科技和政治市场，是一个还没被充分开发的蓝海，当做市商还在畏惧库存管理和逆向选择时。agent真的有可能跑出一些优势；同时我也相信：开源协作会比闭门造车更快跑出东西，对于 Predict-Raven 来讲，还非常有趣的一点是，它也有类似龙虾 soul.md 的架构，允许用户按照自己的偏好和设定去交易。

举个例子，我经过测试并打磨的一个用例是告诉 Agent：市场存在 long-shot bias，即市场会高估小概率事件发生的概率。同时，我让它限定在流动性非常差的政治和科技市场，因为我相信这些地方被不正确定价的概率更高，竞争也不激烈。大家可以很自由地把自己的交易原则代入到小乌鸦里，并通过一些参数增加强约束

哪怕这已经是一个经过很多轮迭代的项目，我也想向大家坦白这个项目还有非常多可以改进的地方。比如真实的测试资金只有500u，而预期的策略容量可能在15万美金以上。目前的一些最优先的需求还包括：更高频的交易，持久化运行和云端部署。我觉得现在也是一个合适的时机把它发布向公众，通过building in public收获非常珍贵的反馈，来调整后续的开发方向

我会挑选五位转发并私信我的朋友，可以简单介绍下自己想参与到Predict-Raven的原因，我将手把手地帮你们搭建属于自己的预测市场agent.

repo，实盘地址和持仓、决策分析网站如下

[Betix @Betix_Labs]

We’re back with a new social betting app! 🚀

Use your X account to sign bets with friends instantly. Anyone can create their own market, resolve outcomes, and settle money up with ease. 💸

Check it out and start betting!

[Betix @Betix_Labs]

will Trump say “may I meet you” in any speech

yes: 80%
no: 20%

[Betix @Betix_Labs]

Quick poll: How large do you think the peak volume of Betting / PredMarket could get, expressed as a fraction of the US equities market? For you reference, daily trading volume of US stocks per day is 607 billion

[Betix @Betix_Labs]

.@NewJeans_ADOR member return to ador by 2026?

(yes)

[Betix @Betix_Labs]

where do we have prediction markets on alt szn

[Betix @Betix_Labs]

.@OpenAI launch a coin and get listed on binance by 2027?

(parody)

[Betix @Betix_Labs]

Good evening mates. Any suggestions of PredMarkets on betting ai bubble burst to play around? We certainly can did so with long put on NVDA, just exploring new methods 🦉

[Betix @Betix_Labs]

.@StorkOracle used by lighter, edgex, ostium and kalshi

wow

but the name just remind me of retarded meme like stonks or stoner

[Betix @Betix_Labs]

yung hedge fund analysts are begging us to build a will-i-die-next-year prediction market to hedge their flesh depreciation

[Betix @Betix_Labs]

CLOB prediction markets with less than 10 people trading

thank you @aixbt_agent @grok @Polymarket

[Betix @Betix_Labs]

NVIDIA sell blackwell to China by 2026?

[Betix @Betix_Labs]

I need to find some stock bro to make those bet with :)

[Betix @Betix_Labs]

so much to bet on equities right now:

- NVDA or AVGO cut CapEx before Q4 2025?

- MSFT or AMZN buy a NeoCloud?

- agentic LLMs hit 10M DAU before 2026?

- NFLX or DIS launch commercial AI content tools before 2026?

touch grass crypto frens

[Betix @Betix_Labs]

any prediction market on when they’ll break up

[Betix @Betix_Labs]

PredMarket is eating the crypto

[Tony wu @Skyinseas]

AI is eatiing the world ;crypto is eating the tradtional finance

[Betix @Betix_Labs]

quiz time

(A) $BONG outperform $PENG and $PING
(B) $PING outperform $BONG and $PENG
(C) $PENG outperform $BING and $BONG

[Betix @Betix_Labs]

@AskPolymarket @Polymarket stop engagement farming

[Betix @Betix_Labs]

no chillhouse market @Polymarket

sidelined?

[Betix @Betix_Labs]

Besides, we also provide a way to short Memecoin or CS2 accessory. Stay tuned if you are interested.

[Betix @Betix_Labs]

maybe use x402 for agent to bet on betix and launch a coin like the ping ting