Beyond the Index

20+ years in Indian equities. I track market structure, flows, macro risk & valuations. Frameworks over tips. Personal views. Not SEBI registered.

[Beyond the Index @BeyondTheIndex]

📌 What 20+ Years in Indian Markets Taught Me

The index hides more than it reveals. Look underneath.

Flows matter before headlines do.

Valuations don't matter — until they suddenly matter a lot.

The crowd is right in trends, and wrong at turning points.

Risk shows up in structure before it shows up in sentiment.
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🔍 I use this account to share:
📊 Market Structure
💰 Flows
🌐 Macro Risk
📐 Valuation Context

Frameworks over tips. Personal views only.

⚠️ Not SEBI registered. Not investment advice.

[Beyond the Index @BeyondTheIndex]

@SanaSecurities @SanaSecurities Of course.

FIIs get an LTCG discount so they'll kindly stop leaving.

DIIs & retail get a higher STT because — according to the govt — we're all enjoying "very low" tax rates. 🙃

Don't worry, there's still "plenty of room" to tax us more. How generous.

[Beyond the Index @BeyondTheIndex]

Indian Bank at day high of 914 — still riding the Q2 wave since results on 15 Oct (PAT +13.92% YoY to ₹3,540 cr). 💪

Double top at 979–980 (Feb & Apr '26) is the level to watch.

Heading back to test 980? What's your call? 👇

#IndianBank #PSUBanks #Breakout

[Beyond the Index @BeyondTheIndex]

Suraksha Diagnostic Ltd has tested and broken above its 23rd June 2025 high of ₹352.50, now trading near ₹356.

Breakout or fakeout? Will it sustain above this level? 🤔

#SurakshaDiagnostic #StockMarket #Breakout #NSE

[Beyond the Index @BeyondTheIndex]

The Sovereign De-Dollarisation Playbook: what it needs, and who has it

Step 1: Reduce reliance on paper claims

China: US Treasury holdings have declined over time
India: reserves still mostly dollar assets

Step 2: Build a hard asset buffer at the central bank

China: 24 straight months of gold buying, 78.3m oz
India: RBI also buying, and has repatriated gold from overseas vaults

Step 3: Let the private balance sheet hold the hedge too

China: open import channels, insurers allowed gold pilots, no discouragement of households
India: appeals to cut buying, heavy duties, curbs on gold fund routes

Step 4: Anchor the currency story

China: gold supports the yuan's credibility as an alternative reserve currency
India: rupee defended by suppressing imports, not by building a hedge

Result
China: hedge at the state and citizen level -> long-term positive

India: hedge at one level -> long-term negative

Test: a de-dollarisation strategy that stops at the central bank is only half a playbook.

[Beyond the Index @BeyondTheIndex]

China's playbook: cut paper dollar exposure, add gold at the central bank, keep the door open for households and insurers. 24 straight months, 78.3m oz.

India's playbook: ask households to buy less gold.

One builds sanction-proof wealth. The other trims it.

Long term, which side of this are you on?

[Beyond the Index @BeyondTheIndex]

China's playbook: cut paper dollar exposure, add gold at the central bank, keep the door open for households and insurers. 24 straight months, 78.3m oz.

India's playbook: ask households to buy less gold.

One builds sanction-proof wealth. The other trims it.

Long term, which side of this are you on?

[Beyond the Index @BeyondTheIndex]

China bought 0.83m oz in October. Reported value of the gold still fell $17bn.

Which tells you the PBoC isn't buying on price.

Month 24 of buying, and they didn't care that the metal dropped ~9% MoM on the implied numbers.

Price-insensitive buyer.

Is that a floor or a trap for everyone else?

[Beyond the Index @BeyondTheIndex]

Why China keeps buying gold when it already mines the most of it?

Short answer: mining and reserve-building solve different problems.

Domestic output: China is the world's largest gold miner, but the supply goes mostly to jewellery and industry, not the central bank

Dollar exposure: the bulk of FX reserves sit in USD assets. Gold can't be frozen, sanctioned or defaulted on
Sanctions lesson: Russia's reserves were frozen in 2022. Every central bank with a rival-power problem noticed

Diversification: gold has no counterparty. Treasuries do
De-dollarisation: gradual, quiet, and gold is the least political way to do it

Trade settlement: gold helps if yuan settlement and alternative payment rails grow
Oct 2025 data:

Holdings: 77.47m oz -> 78.30m oz
Value: $323.52bn -> $306.41bn
Streak: 24 consecutive months

Worth saving for the next time a "why are central banks buying" thread comes up.

[Beyond the Index @BeyondTheIndex]

Why China keeps buying gold when it already mines the most of it?

Short answer: mining and reserve-building solve different problems.

Domestic output: China is the world's largest gold miner, but the supply goes mostly to jewellery and industry, not the central bank

Dollar exposure: the bulk of FX reserves sit in USD assets. Gold can't be frozen, sanctioned or defaulted on
Sanctions lesson: Russia's reserves were frozen in 2022. Every central bank with a rival-power problem noticed

Diversification: gold has no counterparty. Treasuries do
De-dollarisation: gradual, quiet, and gold is the least political way to do it

Trade settlement: gold helps if yuan settlement and alternative payment rails grow
Oct 2025 data:

Holdings: 77.47m oz -> 78.30m oz
Value: $323.52bn -> $306.41bn
Streak: 24 consecutive months

Worth saving for the next time a "why are central banks buying" thread comes up.

[Beyond the Index @BeyondTheIndex]

LIC's CEO says IRDAI's proposed commission caps will have "the least impact" on LIC.

Q2 renewal premium: +5%. Single premium: +35%. Net profit +20%.

The cost story is fine. But growth is coming from the less sticky part of the premium mix. Is the commission cap the real risk to LIC, or is it single premium dependence?

[Beyond the Index @BeyondTheIndex]

LIC on IRDAI's proposed commission caps, CEO interview, summarised.

On the regulation
- IRDAI consultation paper aims to cut distribution expenses
- LIC says it already runs internal caps on commission and distribution cost
- "More or less compliant", except some product lines and some premium-paying terms under regular premium plans
- Possible action: withdraw, refile or modify products
- Impact on LIC: "least", in his words. Higher-cost insurers face more pressure
- Feedback already submitted to the regulator

On margins
- VNB margin: 22.3%
- Drivers cited: product mix, higher non-par ticket sizes, protection and savings focus
- Target mix: roughly one-third non-par, two-thirds par (as stated in the interview)

FY27 priorities
- Individual term, savings, annuity, ULIPs, health
- Launches: Health Shield, New Cancer Cover, Jeevan Raksha (pure term)
- Bima Sakhi in every panchayat, ~66% covered so far

Q2 FY27 standalone (Rs crore)
- Net profit: 12,076.02 vs 10,053.39 (+20.12%)
- Net premium: 1,47,018.18 vs 1,26,479.26 (+16.24%)
- Renewal premium: 68,374.53 vs 64,995.67 (+5.2%)
- Single premium: 68,402.86 vs 50,802.84 (+34.7%)
- Net investment income: 1,14,983.77 vs 1,12,147.16 (+2.5%)

Open question: which product lines and premium-paying terms are non-compliant, and how large are they in new business?

[Beyond the Index @BeyondTheIndex]

LIC on IRDAI's proposed commission caps, CEO interview, summarised.

On the regulation
- IRDAI consultation paper aims to cut distribution expenses
- LIC says it already runs internal caps on commission and distribution cost
- "More or less compliant", except some product lines and some premium-paying terms under regular premium plans
- Possible action: withdraw, refile or modify products
- Impact on LIC: "least", in his words. Higher-cost insurers face more pressure
- Feedback already submitted to the regulator

On margins
- VNB margin: 22.3%
- Drivers cited: product mix, higher non-par ticket sizes, protection and savings focus
- Target mix: roughly one-third non-par, two-thirds par (as stated in the interview)

FY27 priorities
- Individual term, savings, annuity, ULIPs, health
- Launches: Health Shield, New Cancer Cover, Jeevan Raksha (pure term)
- Bima Sakhi in every panchayat, ~66% covered so far

Q2 FY27 standalone (Rs crore)
- Net profit: 12,076.02 vs 10,053.39 (+20.12%)
- Net premium: 1,47,018.18 vs 1,26,479.26 (+16.24%)
- Renewal premium: 68,374.53 vs 64,995.67 (+5.2%)
- Single premium: 68,402.86 vs 50,802.84 (+34.7%)
- Net investment income: 1,14,983.77 vs 1,12,147.16 (+2.5%)

Open question: which product lines and premium-paying terms are non-compliant, and how large are they in new business?

[Beyond the Index @BeyondTheIndex]

Aadhar Housing Q2: AUM +18%, disbursements +22%, PAT +16%.

Provisions jumped 84% to Rs 24 cr while GNPA improved 8 bps to 1.34%. Credit cost is rising even though the reported asset quality looks clean.

Is that prudence, or are they building a buffer for something they can see coming?

[Beyond the Index @BeyondTheIndex]

Happy Forgings Q2: revenue +33%, PAT +33%, OPM flat at 30.6%.

Loan funds went from Rs 193 cr to Rs 543 cr in a year. Cash halved. Debtors +28%.

Great growth, but it's being financed by the balance sheet.

Is Rs 500 cr more capex the right call at a peak cycle?

[Beyond the Index @BeyondTheIndex]

Happy Forgings Q2 FY27, a clean audit. Consolidated, YoY.

P&L
•Sales: Rs 500.75 cr, +32.69% (first time over Rs 500 cr)
•OP: Rs 153.12 cr, +32.23%
•OPM: 30.58% vs 30.68%
•PAT: Rs 97.50 cr, +32.76%
•Tax rate: 25.34% vs 25.52% (no tax help here)

Where the growth came from
•Volume: 18,754 MT, +24.8%
•Realisation: Rs 267/kg, +6.3%
•Domestic +30%, exports +36%

Cost lines (% of sales)
•Raw material: 39.58% -> 40.79%
•Employee: 8.95% -> 7.94%
•Other expenses: 20.73% -> 21.50%

Balance sheet (30 Sep 25 -> 30 Sep 26)
•Loan funds: Rs 192.63 cr -> 543.44 cr
•Debtors: Rs 379.72 cr -> 487.69 cr
•Cash: Rs 100.19 cr -> 43.35 cr
•Fixed assets: Rs 1,159.76 cr -> 1,625.12 cr

Mix (H1): CV 33%, Farm 31%, Industrials 16%, Off-Highway 12%, PV 9%

Not in the filing: how much of the debt is for the ultra-heavy forging plant?

[Beyond the Index @BeyondTheIndex]

Happy Forgings Q2 FY27, a clean audit. Consolidated, YoY.

P&L
•Sales: Rs 500.75 cr, +32.69% (first time over Rs 500 cr)
•OP: Rs 153.12 cr, +32.23%
•OPM: 30.58% vs 30.68%
•PAT: Rs 97.50 cr, +32.76%
•Tax rate: 25.34% vs 25.52% (no tax help here)

Where the growth came from
•Volume: 18,754 MT, +24.8%
•Realisation: Rs 267/kg, +6.3%
•Domestic +30%, exports +36%

Cost lines (% of sales)
•Raw material: 39.58% -> 40.79%
•Employee: 8.95% -> 7.94%
•Other expenses: 20.73% -> 21.50%

Balance sheet (30 Sep 25 -> 30 Sep 26)
•Loan funds: Rs 192.63 cr -> 543.44 cr
•Debtors: Rs 379.72 cr -> 487.69 cr
•Cash: Rs 100.19 cr -> 43.35 cr
•Fixed assets: Rs 1,159.76 cr -> 1,625.12 cr

Mix (H1): CV 33%, Farm 31%, Industrials 16%, Off-Highway 12%, PV 9%

Not in the filing: how much of the debt is for the ultra-heavy forging plant?

[Shail Bhatnagar @shail_bhatnagar]

Nifty is now the world's BEST performing index on a weekly and monthly basis!

NOTE THIS: Dalal Street is UP today at a time when there is CARNAGE SELLING across Asia!

Fii Net investment of 14,900 cr HELPS!

[Beyond the Index @BeyondTheIndex]

Indian aviation’s next growth trigger may not come from airports.

It may come from geopolitics.

A de-escalation in West Asia could lower fuel and rerouting costs, restore flight schedules and bring back passengers priced out by expensive fares.

The “peace dividend” could become aviation’s recovery trade.

[Beyond the Index @BeyondTheIndex]

US midterms ne mood badla hai, India ke risks nahi.

Crude gira, rupee ko support mila aur FPI flows wapas aa sakte hain.

Lekin Russian oil par tariff risk, trade uncertainty aur West Asia abhi bhi major concerns hain.

India ko breathing room mila hai.
Clean runway nahi.

[Edge Over Hype @EdgeOverHype]

India may get a breather from the US midterm outcome.

Lower crude can ease pressure on inflation, the current account and the rupee. FPI flows may also improve.

But the risks haven’t disappeared:

• Russian oil tariff threats remain reversible
• Trade policy still rests largely with the White House
• West Asia can send crude higher again

This is relief—not resolution.

[Beyond the Index @BeyondTheIndex]

Nykaa added ₹660 cr of revenue YoY in Q2 and kept ₹68 cr of it as profit.

That's ~10% incremental margin.

Headline PAT margin is still 3.4%.

The stock trades on one of those numbers. Not sure the market has decided which.

[Beyond the Index @BeyondTheIndex]

Nykaa Q2 FY27, the numbers worth keeping, including the ones you have to work out yourself:

GMV: ₹6,151 cr, +30% YoY
Revenue: ₹3,006 cr, +28% YoY
PAT: ₹101 cr vs ₹33 cr

Derived:
- Beauty GMV ₹4,454 cr = ~72% of total GMV
- Non-beauty GMV (fashion + others) ≈ ₹1,697 cr
- Revenue/GMV ≈ 48.9%, down slightly from ~49.6% a year ago
- PAT margin 3.4% vs 1.4%
- Incremental PAT margin ≈ 10%

Why revenue grew slower than GMV: more of the growth is coming from marketplace-style GMV, where Nykaa books only part of the sale as revenue.

Still to check in the full filing:
- Other income as a share of PBT
- PAT attributable to owners vs consolidated (minority interest)
- Marketing as % of revenue. Management credits marketing and overhead efficiency, so verify the number
- Fashion segment EBITDA trend
- ESOP cost line

[INFINIA RESEARCH | SEBI RA:INH000026585 | BSE:7089 @InfiniaResearch]

GE Vernova T&D India now has a Power Grid Letter of Award for one of the larger transmission packages in the current cycle: a 6,000 MW, ±800 kV HVDC LCC terminal station (2x3,000 MW) to carry renewable power from Barmer II in Rajasthan to South Kalamb in Maharashtra.

Why it stands out:
- ±800 kV is the top voltage class used in India's HVDC buildout, and very few vendors can deliver LCC terminal stations at this scale.
- The project links desert solar and wind capacity to load centres in western India, where AC transmission alone struggles.
- The award moves the company deeper into HVDC work, beyond its core substation and AC equipment business.

Disc: Illustrative GVT&D analysis for educational purposes; not a recommendation. Holding: No. Market risks & SEBI RA discl. in bio.

[Beyond the Index @BeyondTheIndex]

Nykaa Q2 FY27, the numbers worth keeping, including the ones you have to work out yourself:

GMV: ₹6,151 cr, +30% YoY
Revenue: ₹3,006 cr, +28% YoY
PAT: ₹101 cr vs ₹33 cr

Derived:
- Beauty GMV ₹4,454 cr = ~72% of total GMV
- Non-beauty GMV (fashion + others) ≈ ₹1,697 cr
- Revenue/GMV ≈ 48.9%, down slightly from ~49.6% a year ago
- PAT margin 3.4% vs 1.4%
- Incremental PAT margin ≈ 10%

Why revenue grew slower than GMV: more of the growth is coming from marketplace-style GMV, where Nykaa books only part of the sale as revenue.

Still to check in the full filing:
- Other income as a share of PBT
- PAT attributable to owners vs consolidated (minority interest)
- Marketing as % of revenue. Management credits marketing and overhead efficiency, so verify the number
- Fashion segment EBITDA trend
- ESOP cost line

[Beyond the Index @BeyondTheIndex]

SJS H1 PAT +70%. Q2 PAT +35%.

H1 PBT is 1,458 mn. H1 PAT is 1,327 mn. Q1 PAT alone (~744) was higher than Q1 PBT (~676).

So which one is the growth rate for SJS, 70% or 35%?

[Beyond the Index @BeyondTheIndex]

SJS Enterprises, Sep 2026 vs Sep 2025 (Rs mn)

Quarter:
Income: 2,462 -> 2,890 (+17.4%)
PBT: 580 -> 782 (+34.7%)
PAT: 433 -> 583 (+34.8%)

Half-year:
Income: 4,587 -> 5,553 (+21.1%)
PBT: 1,040 -> 1,458 (+40.3%)
PAT: 779 -> 1,327 (+70.4%)

Margins (Q2):
- PBT: 23.6% -> 27.1%
- PAT: 17.6% -> 20.2%

Derived Q1 FY27 (H1 minus Q2):
- Income ~2,663
- PBT ~676
- PAT ~744 (above PBT)

What to take from it:
- Q2 is a clean quarter: PBT and PAT both +35%, tax gap normal (~25%)
- Q1 PAT > PBT means a tax credit or exceptional item below PBT
- H1 PAT +70% is not a run-rate
- Profit Before EO = PBT in both periods, so no exceptional item above PBT

Check in the filing: deferred tax, minority interest, any share of associates.

[Beyond the Index @BeyondTheIndex]

SJS Enterprises, Sep 2026 vs Sep 2025 (Rs mn)

Quarter:
Income: 2,462 -> 2,890 (+17.4%)
PBT: 580 -> 782 (+34.7%)
PAT: 433 -> 583 (+34.8%)

Half-year:
Income: 4,587 -> 5,553 (+21.1%)
PBT: 1,040 -> 1,458 (+40.3%)
PAT: 779 -> 1,327 (+70.4%)

Margins (Q2):
- PBT: 23.6% -> 27.1%
- PAT: 17.6% -> 20.2%

Derived Q1 FY27 (H1 minus Q2):
- Income ~2,663
- PBT ~676
- PAT ~744 (above PBT)

What to take from it:
- Q2 is a clean quarter: PBT and PAT both +35%, tax gap normal (~25%)
- Q1 PAT > PBT means a tax credit or exceptional item below PBT
- H1 PAT +70% is not a run-rate
- Profit Before EO = PBT in both periods, so no exceptional item above PBT

Check in the filing: deferred tax, minority interest, any share of associates.