Beyond Expected

Bridging the gap between the eye test and advanced analytics. Primarily for The Detroit Red Wings but I will cover games from other teams occasionally.

[Beyond Expected @BeyondXGoals]

This is the actual core of the Red Wings and people need to come to acceptance with that fact.

Raymond, Kasper, Danielson, Plante, Finnie, MBN, Lombardi, Bear, Genborg.

Seider, Edvinsson, ASP, Johansson, Johansson, Keenan.

Cossa, Augustine, Postava

Larkin, Cat, and Copp will act as our veterans. Yzerman had said over and over again that he's going to build through the draft. They are putting nearly all of their chips into these prospects.

Many of you don't think that these prospects can fill the spots in the top 6. And that's ok. But they think they can.

[Beyond Expected @BeyondXGoals]

@J_the_ManSelden Then why didn't Ed sign an offer sheet? You're entire argument falls apart when you realize that not one single other team was willing to give Edvinsson what he wanted.

If an offer sheet with $11 million came through, Edvinsson would have signed it and forced Detroit's hand.

[Beyond Expected @BeyondXGoals]

@steinbizzel @Bdurand_16 He could but it really wouldn't change anything. It seems like Detroit's main goal is to make the post season. Only a trade that helps them with that goal will motivate them to move.

[Beyond Expected @BeyondXGoals]

@Ya_boy_Rabbit @Bdurand_16 Then the best move for Detroit is just to hold on to him. Eventually they'll find a deal or move him to the team with the highest futures. Seems to be their thought process.

[Beyond Expected @BeyondXGoals]

@Bdurand_16 What goalpost? It's been the issue this entire time. Detroit has Kasper and Danielson. They don't need a third. If Yurov can demonstrate a higher offensive upside then the conversation can happen. Otherwise Detroit has no reason to pull the trigger.

[Beyond Expected @BeyondXGoals]

@fortuna69_420 @Bdurand_16 That's great but Detroit already has that in Kasper. If Yurov instead demonstrating the ability to be a top 6 center it's not going toove the needle.

[Beyond Expected @BeyondXGoals]

@Ya_boy_Rabbit @Bdurand_16 Larkin has a history of 30 goal seasons. Yurov has to show the value of a 2C or Detroit isn't going to be interested. They already have Kasper and Danielson.

[Beyond Expected @BeyondXGoals]

@yojustcolby @MitchManners @sportscryptid @TopDownHockey Odd .. he has a cumulative game score card of .036 so far this season. That's puts him above average.

But that one must not count.

[Beyond Expected @BeyondXGoals]

@yojustcolby @MitchManners @sportscryptid @TopDownHockey Feel free to die on that hill. But at the end of the day you found a model simply to reinforce your beliefs.

[Beyond Expected @BeyondXGoals]

@yojustcolby @MitchManners @sportscryptid @TopDownHockey But that's not what anyone is saying. In fact all of us have said that Chiarot is a poor NHL defensemen. No one is "dying on a hill" for Chiarot.

We're saying that an NHL replacement level player would in fact perform worse than Chiarot even though the model says otherwise.

[Beyond Expected @BeyondXGoals]

@BlueBullet1981 They both have their flaws. Quantitative metrics without qualitative analysis always will. But yes it is stronger than the box score agregator.

I wanted to do a segment each game about the strengths and limitations. But I hate this platform.

[Beyond Expected @BeyondXGoals]

The irony here is that you're doing exactly what they said.

"My critique is that theoretical replacement level play and actual replacement level play are not necessarily the same thing and people can draw inaccurate conclusions (bench player A for player B) based on that".

You can 100% blame time on ice.

An AHL player would perform at a -.259 rate. But this is in a sheltered 12 minute defensive role. So the model says Chiarot should perform at -.518 across 24 minutes.

But anyone who plays hockey will tell you that it's not linear. 24 minutes against the other team's top line wears you down. His "error" rate increases exponentially.

[Beyond Expected @BeyondXGoals]

They're not dieing on a hill for Chiarot. They're highlighting that he's not actually at or below replacement level play.

Night after night Chiarot is getting caved in because he's playing 22 minutes in a position he shouldn't be in.

He receives no credits because it's not his job. He receives debits because he's the anchor and he's not good enough to do it.

Every night he continues to accumulate "negative impact". It's essentially Chiarot being pressured, throwing the puck away, and the other team's top line punishing him for it.

But an actual replacement level defenseman would be much worse. An average defenseman might even be worse. There is a reason coaches tell players to go high off the glass if they feel pressure. There are much worse alternatives.

[Beyond Expected @BeyondXGoals]

From my understanding that's how Box WAR works. If Seider is jumping up in the play, contributing to chances, etc. And Chiarot is sitting back, ideally as a safety net. Seider 's box WAR is inflated and Chiarot's isn't.

I can't see inside their model but think of it as a test where one student can increase and decrease their score and the other student can only decrease their score.

Then magnify those results depending on usage when those partners are separated.

Chiarot has the 3rd lowest offensive zone start percentage on the Wings this year. A full 10% lower than Seider.

I'm not really in the game of defending Chiarot. He's not very good. He really shouldn't be on a top pair. But his Box WAR is being artificially deflated thanks to being Seider's partner and thanks to how the coaches use him.

[Beyond Expected @BeyondXGoals]

@NicknnTarnowski @RealityCheckSC @JGilly46 He was a GM for years. You sat on your coach spouting nonsense for years. A bit of a difference 😂

[Beyond Expected @BeyondXGoals]

@NicknnTarnowski @RealityCheckSC @JGilly46 The plan is to win a Stanley Cup. Trading your assets for a Quinn Hughes rental just to make the playoffs for a year of two is exactly why you're not a GM.

[Beyond Expected @BeyondXGoals]

@NicknnTarnowski @WickedWristers @JGilly46 They have 7 points in their last 4 games. Someone needs to relax lmao.

[Beyond Expected @BeyondXGoals]

@NicknnTarnowski @WickedWristers @JGilly46 That's weird. They seem to be just fine.

[Beyond Expected @BeyondXGoals]

@NicknnTarnowski @WickedWristers @JGilly46 Well if we're basing this off your hockey knowledge that only makes me more confident that they will win one. 😂

[Beyond Expected @BeyondXGoals]

@NicknnTarnowski @WickedWristers @JGilly46 Maybe that's the difference between us. You want the wings to win a playoff series. I want them to win a cup.