Baris Guzel

Partner @BMWiVentures. Inv: @tekioncorp @xometry($xmtr) @ampecoglobal @QualyticsData @estesenergy @macrofab @ridezum @AutoFi_inc @mapillary Opinions are my own

[Baris Guzel @Bguzel]

@sundeep Huge implications

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https://t.co/L7GpKm0vgA

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@dee_bosa There is indeed a corporate finance theory on this:

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https://t.co/L7GpKm0vgA

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@cjgustafson @theinformation Really relevant topic. A corporate finance theory might be helpful to explain here:

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https://t.co/L7GpKm0vgA

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@stratechery @benthompson Key topic - a corporate finance theory is also relevant here:

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https://t.co/L7GpKm0vgA

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@FredaDuan Key topic indeed. A corporate finance theory is very relevant here, I tried to explain here

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https://t.co/L7GpKm0vgA

[Baris Guzel @Bguzel]

9/ The $80B is not the story. What it tells you is.

In a year: debt quadrupled, a 100-year bond, then $80B equity, with $866M paid to close it. And a wave of mega-raises lining up behind it that each top a full year of the IPO market.

Full breakdown 👇
https://t.co/9trlNZIBvs

[Baris Guzel @Bguzel]

https://t.co/L7GpKm0vgA

[Baris Guzel @Bguzel]

In one year, Alphabet quadrupled its long-term debt, reached out to a 100-year bond, and STILL announced raising $80B in equity, the largest in US history.
A 1984 corporate finance paper explains why that should worry the whole market. 🧵

[Baris Guzel @Bguzel]

8/ Four reads.

1. Internal cash collapsing (consensus already prices it)
2. Management finds equity relatively cheap
3. Bond market reaching its limit for this issuer
4. They needed the credibility badge
Pick any. They all point the same direction.

Watch the coming weeks:
Does GOOGL's underwritten tranche price within range? Does SpaceX float at pricing? Do MSFT, META, or AMZN follow with equity?

[Baris Guzel @Bguzel]

https://t.co/L7GpKm0vgA

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@bhalligan All SaaS revenue is not created equal. The key distinction will be "eaten by AI" vs "consumed by AI". More:

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https://t.co/e4XbRgoBQZ

[Baris Guzel @Bguzel]

If you are building a software business, are you being "eaten by AI" or "consumed by AI?" All SaaS revenue is not created equal. https://t.co/wHvTb2eVbp

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https://t.co/e4XbRgoBQZ

[Baris Guzel @Bguzel]

@afc @ausw2000 The AI segment enterprise value estimate reminds me of “fairness opinion” from my investment banking days…

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@afc @ausw2000 Love the analysis! Though highly doubtful about the “AI” segment enterprise value estimate in your sum of the parts analysis :)

[Baris Guzel @Bguzel]

@jasonlk All SaaS revenue is not created equal. The key distinction will be "eaten by AI" vs "consumed by AI".
https://t.co/s70JC0C9ds?

[Baris Guzel @Bguzel]

https://t.co/e4XbRgoBQZ