Scott A Brave

Senior Economist and Economic Advisor @ChicagoFed. Visiting Researcher @IUibrc. Personal Opinions Only.

[Scott A Brave @BigDataGoSMALL]

Sharing a recently published @ChicagoFed Letter. We build a new composite index of #consumer #sentiment (the C-CSI) that blends high frequency data on consumer sentiment with traditional measures to correct for potential biases in the University of Michigan’s sentiment index.

[Scott A Brave @BigDataGoSMALL]

Today’s release for May 2026 from @BLS_gov showed the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%, in line with the final release for the @ChicagoFed Labor Market Indicators.

[Scott A Brave @BigDataGoSMALL]

@Jon_Hartley_ @StanfordEcon @I_Am_NickBloom @DuffieDarrell @JohnHCochrane @HannoLustig @HooverInst Congratulations Jon!

[Scott A Brave @BigDataGoSMALL]

Try this link if one above is broken https://t.co/SA3m9v1TRX

[Scott A Brave @BigDataGoSMALL]

Is the #vibecession just measurement error? Partly yes according to a newly released @ChicagoFed letter.

[Scott A Brave @BigDataGoSMALL]

See the details at https://t.co/R2KdVwr6SO….

[Scott A Brave @BigDataGoSMALL]

@danielposthumu2 @ChicagoFed My apologies. Try this one https://t.co/SA3m9v1TRX

[Scott A Brave @BigDataGoSMALL]

@poopsidaisies Thank you! We are looking into it. It was a bit of a sprint to get this out before the communications blackout begins. My hope is that we can make the C-CSI available for download shortly after the blackout is over.

[Scott A Brave @BigDataGoSMALL]

Sharing a recently published @ChicagoFed Letter. We build a new composite index of #consumer #sentiment (the C-CSI) that blends high frequency data on consumer sentiment with traditional measures to correct for potential biases in the University of Michigan’s sentiment index.

[Scott A Brave @BigDataGoSMALL]

Our new composite index partially restores the link between consumer sentiment and consumer spending over the last few years.

[Scott A Brave @BigDataGoSMALL]

The C-CSI can be used to partially restore the link between consumer sentiment and consumer spending that has been strained for the last three years.

[Scott A Brave @BigDataGoSMALL]

See the details at https://t.co/SA3m9v1TRX.

[Scott A Brave @BigDataGoSMALL]

https://t.co/UK8tDkRwmk

[Scott A Brave @BigDataGoSMALL]

In between releases for the @ChicagoFed Labor Market Indicators (LMI), here is a recently published survey article on the LMI from the FRBC Working paper series. See the link in first reply for further details.

[Scott A Brave @BigDataGoSMALL]

For further details on CARTS, visit https://t.co/XabjA8HSUA.

[Scott A Brave @BigDataGoSMALL]

Retail and food services sales ex. autos from @uscensusbureau were up +0.7% m/m in April, a bit below the final nowcast from @ChicagoFed. The @ChicagoFed projects prices for the same category of spending were up a similar amount, leaving inflation-adjusted sales flat since March.

[Scott A Brave @BigDataGoSMALL]

Note that this category of retail spending includes gas station sales and, hence, reflects the recent run-up in gasoline prices. Final CARTS data for April are scheduled for release on May 13th. Visit https://t.co/XabjA8HSUA for further details.

[Scott A Brave @BigDataGoSMALL]

@ChicagoFed Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS) preliminary release for April is now up. Early indications for retail and food services sales excluding autos suggest sales continued to rise in April, but with continued price pressures accounting for the majority of the increase.

[Scott A Brave @BigDataGoSMALL]

Visit https://t.co/gr3pMJ08Fy for further details.

[Scott A Brave @BigDataGoSMALL]

Final release for April of the @ChicagoFed Labor Market Indicators (LMI) is out now. The LMI suggests about an equal probability of the unemployment rate coming in tomorrow in the range of 4.2% to 4.3%, with the balance of risks leaning toward a decrease.