BigMike

MLB K-Model + PrizePicks/Underdog props (Ks • SOGs • Receptions) | Tracked results + methodology

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

⚾ K Model Recap 08/04: 5-0

POD Result: Mackenzie Gore - UNDER 6.5 Ks✅
Next Best Bets: 4-0

We follow up the full fade with a sweep of our own. Really nice bounce back. Will do today’s a little later. #Gambling𝕏

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

K Model MLB Picks - 08/04

Thread: Today’s POD + Next Best Bets

Full daily sheet + methodology → https://t.co/CgtIXv76pB

#MLBPicks #PrizePicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

Here’s a play for tonight’s slate #MLBPicks #Underdog

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

Next Best Bets:

Sean Burke – UNDER 6.5 Ks (31.1%)
Logan Webb – OVER 4.5 Ks (60.7%)
Connor Prielipp – UNDER 5.5 Ks (34.0%)

Full reasonings + season tracker → https://t.co/CgtIXv76pB

#MLBPicks #PrizePicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

K Model MLB Picks - 08/20

Thread: Today’s POD + Next Best Bets

Full daily sheet + methodology → https://t.co/kHFOHArMcf

#MLBPicks #PrizePicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

Today’s K Model Pick of the Day:

Jacob deGrom vs Nationals – OVER 5.5 Ks (-125)
Probability of going OVER the line: 62.4%

Model Insights:
• Stuff+ rating: 109
• Pitching+ rating: 118
• PSI+ vertical approach angle: -4.42°​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​���​​​​​​​

The model projects deGrom for 6.45 strikeouts, driven by strong Stuff+ and Pitching+ ratings in a home start.

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

Today’s K Model Pick of the Day:

Emerson Hancock vs Cubs – OVER 4.5 Ks (-151)
Probability of going OVER the line: 65.8%

Model Insights:
• Stuff+ rating: 101
• Opp Z-Swing%: 65.6%
• PSI+ Vertical Approach Angle: -5.45°

The model projects Hancock for 5.60 strikeouts, driven by solid Stuff+ and strong opponent swing rates in a home start.

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

K Model MLB Picks - 08/21

Thread: Today’s POD + Next Best Bets

Full daily sheet + methodology → https://t.co/CgtIXv76pB

#MLBPicks #PrizePicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

⚾ K Model Recap 08/20: 2-2

POD Result: Jacob deGrom – OVER 5.5 Ks ✅
Next Best Bets: 1-2 #Gambling𝕏 #MLBPicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

K Model MLB Picks - 08/20

Thread: Today’s POD + Next Best Bets

Full daily sheet + methodology → https://t.co/kHFOHArMcf

#MLBPicks #PrizePicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

Here’s a play for today’s MLB slate #MLBPicks #UnderdogFantasy

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

Not sure why it’s not letting me do this as a reply so we will try as a regular tweet.

Next Best Bets:

Gavin Williams – UNDER 7.5 Ks (28.4%)
Ian Seymour – UNDER 5.5 Ks (28.9%)
Grayson Rodriguez – OVER 4.5 Ks (64.1%)

Full reasonings + season tracker → https://t.co/fLmDYXM4Cw

#MLBPicks #PrizePicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

⚾ K Model Recap 08/19: 7-2

POD Result: Roki Sasaki - OVER 4.5 Ks✅

Next Best Bets: 3-2

Thought we were poised to have a big day yesterday, and we did. Unfortunately, the two plays we gave out yesterday, contained the only two losers of the day... #Pain #Gambling𝕏 #MLBPicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

K Model MLB Picks - 08/19

Thread: Today’s POD + Next Best Bets

Full daily sheet + methodology → https://t.co/kHFOHArMcf

#MLBPicks #PrizePicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

Running this for the early slate. Will have a DFS play out later today #MLBPicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

Next Best Bets:

Payton Tolle – OVER 5.5 Ks (72.7%)
Parker Messick – UNDER 6.5 Ks (23.6%)
Jackson Jobe – OVER 4.5 Ks (69.7%)
Kyle Freeland – OVER 3.5 Ks (69.2%)
Robert Stock – OVER 3.5 Ks (68.7%)

Full reasonings + season tracker → https://t.co/kHFOHArMcf

#MLBPicks #PrizePicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

K Model MLB Picks - 08/19

Thread: Today��s POD + Next Best Bets

Full daily sheet + methodology → https://t.co/kHFOHArMcf

#MLBPicks #PrizePicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

Today’s K Model Pick of the Day:

Roki Sasaki vs Rockies – OVER 4.5 Ks (-143)
Probability of going OVER the line: 74.5%

Model Insights:
• Stuff+ rating: 110
• Opp SwStr%: 12.3%
• Fastball extension: 7.12 ft

The model projects Sasaki for 6.23 strikeouts, driven by strong Stuff+ and Pitching+ ratings.

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

⚾ K Model Recap 08/18: 5-3

POD Result: Bryce Miller - OVER 5.5 Ks❌
Next Best Bets: 3-2

Back to positive yesterday, but still not good enough, with the POD loss. Hoping to build on it today tho. #Gambling𝕏 #MLBPicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

K Model MLB Picks - 08/18

Thread: Today’s POD + Next Best Bets

Full daily sheet + methodology → https://t.co/kHFOHArMcf

#MLBPicks #PrizePicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

Here’s a play I’m running for today’s MLB Slate

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

Next Best Bets:

Foster Griffin – UNDER 5.5 Ks (28.7%)
Keider Montero – OVER 3.5 Ks (65.9%)
Carlos Rodón – UNDER 5.5 Ks (29.7%)
Cristian Javier – OVER 4.5 Ks (63.9%)
Jack Perkins – OVER 3.5 Ks (65.1%)

Full reasonings + season tracker → https://t.co/fLmDYXM4Cw

#MLBPicks #PrizePicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

K Model MLB Picks - 08/18

Thread: Today’s POD + Next Best Bets

Full daily sheet + methodology → https://t.co/kHFOHArMcf

#MLBPicks #PrizePicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

Today’s K Model Pick of the Day:

Bryce Miller vs Brewers – OVER 5.5 Ks (+126)
Probability of going OVER the line: 64.1%

Model Insights:
• Stuff+ rating: 107
• Pitching+ rating: 116
• Predicted K's: 6.57

The model projects Miller to go over his strikeouts line, driven by strong Stuff+ and Pitching+ ratings.

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

⚾ K Model Recap 08/17: 2-5

POD Result: Framber Valdez - OVER 6.5 Ks✅
Next Best Bets: 2-3

No luck yesterday. Just some really tough breaks. #Gambling𝕏

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

K Model MLB Picks - 08/17

Thread: Today’s POD + Next Best Bets

Full daily sheet + methodology → https://t.co/kHFOHArMcf

#MLBPicks #PrizePicks