Big Pick Daddy

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[Big Pick Daddy @BigPickDaddy]

Our series on fantasy football long shots who are available at the end of drafts continues..,

Here’s part 4 “STELLAr Sleepers”

https://t.co/PXYFCYGY3s

[Big Pick Daddy @BigPickDaddy]

Darnell Washington - TE - PIT - At first we ask ourselves, why is a massive, blocking-first tight end who functions like a sixth offensive lineman with red-zone and play-action seam upside, but limited target volume and separation as a pure receiver being drafted at all?

I decided to look a little deeper. Last season Pat Freiermuth had 20 less targets than he did in 2024, while Washington saw an uptick of 20 targets from 2024.

The Steelers also released Jonnu Smith who saw 54 targets last season so there’s a viable path here for Washington.

I don’t have much interest in Washington outside of Rodgers stacks, but after diving deeper, maybe I should.

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J.J. McCarthy - QB - MIN - Call me crazy, but I’m not ready to be done with JJNINE.

He’s been a disappointment from a NFL standpoint and likely not the franchise savior Vikings fans hoped he would be. But from a fantasy standpoint, McCarthy was decent down the stretch once he was able to play without the pressure he felt to start the season.

Kyler Murray is now in Minnesota hoping he can rehab his career the same way Sam Darnold did. That could happen, but the other possibility is things go sour for Murray and the Vikings turn the reins back over to McCarthy.

McCarthy was never asked at Michigan to do what he’s responsible for now in the NFL. Chances are that takes time and maybe JJ figures it out, wins back the locker room, and becomes one of the stories of the season.

There’s a path where this plays out and if so, his fantasy value skyrockets.

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Trevor Etienne - RB - CAR - Etienne had a quiet season last year as a rookie with the Panthers only playing about 5% of the snaps.

However, with Rico Dowdle leaving for Pittsburgh, we over 600 snaps that he left behind to account for. Chuba Hubbard will get a bulk of those snap, but behind him is Jonathan Brooks.

The assumption around Brooks is that he’ll be healthy and be the 2 in the 1-2 punch in this backfield.

The main issue with that assumption is Brooks has only played 23 snaps total since being drafted in 2024. Dowdle finished RB16 and Hubbard RB37, respectively.

If the backup RB for the Panthers has top RB 40 upside again, then we should have Etienne way more on our radars than he is currently.

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Chris Brazzell II - WR - CAR - Chris Brazzell II is a tall, long-striding vertical WR with true deep speed and downfield ball skills, more of a boundary field-stretcher than a short-area separator or YAC specialist.

If he can beat out Xavier Legette for the last WR spot, his value will get a nice bump.

The Panthers offense took some nice strides forward last year and Brazzell is worth rostering to round out Bryce Young stacks.

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@CapnWanderlust 🤝

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James Conner - RB - ARI - Conner is interesting for a few reasons.

While we know the Cardinals spent their first round pick on Jeremiyah Love and brought over Tyler Allgeier from the Falcons, Conner might have enough history here to be relevant.

The Cardinals are not expected to be a winning team this season so they may not want to put a bunch of miles on their rookie RB. If that’s the case, then Conner could surprise and pay off at this price.

The other outcome for Conner is the team keeps Trey Benson and moves on from Conner. If they do, then I’d expect Conner to be a more likely candidate for Dallas than Nick Chubb and could certainly land in Green Bay if Jacobs actually faces a suspension this season.

Regardless, he’s one of my favorite late round picks.

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Nick Chubb - RB - FA - I haven’t taken Chubb yet and won’t until he signs somewhere.

My guess that he gets selected at all is that there’s speculation that he could go to Dallas.

That would pique my interest but it would be tempered as Chubb has only scored 15 points or more once since 2023.

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Samaje Perine - RB - CIN - Perine has carved out a nice role for himself in the Bengals offense.

He had a handful of games that would have hit lineups in best ball format and I anticipate there will be more this season.

Perine played about 40% of the snaps which is a nice number in a Joe Burrow offense. I’m targeting Perine in all Burrow stacks and he’s the handcuff for Chase Brown.

Perine doesn’t have the highest ceiling, but his floor is ok enough to consider him.

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Tyquan Thornton - WR - KC - The speedster who came over from the Pats showed flashes last year with the Chiefs.

Like the rest of the Chiefs offense, Thorton likley has more to write about had Mahomes not got hurt.

I don’t really see Thorton as draft-able outside of Mahomes stacks. The good news is he is currently 3rd on the depth chart, the bad news is one of the younger WRs could emerge.

I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Chiefs sign one of the veteran WRs left in Diggs, Deebo, and Tyreek. Also, with Brandon Aiyuk seeming to wear out his welcome before he even got there in Washington, I could see the Chiefs trying to pick him up for nothing as they’ve been known to take chances on talented players with questionable behavior.

If they don’t add a veteran receiver, then Thorton becomes more intriguing.

He’s free and plays with Mahomes. With shaky WR play outside of Rice and Kelce on his last legs, someone will emerge here and Thorton is currently on the inside track to be that beneficiary.

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Kaelon Black - RB - SF - We discussed in the Jordan James preview how the Niners want to preserve McCaffrey. I anticipate Black to be the main beneficiary of that. The Niners used a 3rd round pick on Black and he’ll compete with James for the backup role.

Black is a compact, decisive one-cut RB with burst and contact balance, built to grind between the tackles in zone schemes while offering functional but unspectacular receiving and long speed. The Shanahan offenses have made fantasy studs out of backs with those qualities.

Black likely has little value if McCaffrey stays healthy, but he’s still the back I’d want to handcuff to McCaffrey.

He’s a great swing for the fences candidate with your last pick and will be a league winner if anything were to happen to CMC.

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Jaylin Noel - WR - HOU - Noel was a popular sleeper pick last year and he didn’t live up to it.

This year we find him in the barely draft-able range, but still technically a sleeper.

The issue isn’t so much with Noel’s talent, but it’s more so playing in an offense that doesn’t throw the ball that much.

If the Texans bring back Tank Dell slowly, then Noel could start in 3 WR sets. Until then, Noel probably isn’t worth picking in traditional formats, but should be drafted in best ball formats with CJ Stroud stacks.

https://t.co/T7nQBqCrBj

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Pat Bryant - WR - DEN - Like Horton we have another 2nd year WR with a golden opportunity in front of them if they can navigate the competition on the way to targets.

Bryant’s role was steadily increasing as his rookie year went on last year before being limited late in the season from injuries.

Coach Sean Payton compared Bryant’s game to Michael Thomas who led the league in receptions multiple years under Payton. That might be an aggressive comparison but we know that Payton will not play younger guys unless he trusts him so working off that kind of endorsement is a great sign for Bryant.

Can he take a step forward this year? Probably, but what’s more concerning is their very crowded and talented WR room where Payton and Bo will happily distribute targets.

If you take Bryant in traditional formats, you might have to be patient. For best ball, he’s a great low-risk, high-reward option.

[Big Pick Daddy @BigPickDaddy]

Tory Horton - WR - SEA - Horton is coming off an injury and whether or not he’ll be back to form will be something we need to keep an on eye on.

What we saw last year was a guy who came on very quickly for the Seahawks and clearly had a rapport with Darnold as Horton caught 5 TD passes on 13 catches in 8 games played.

At the end of our drafts we’re looking for upside and Horton has it. I expect Cooper Kupp to take another step back and look for Horton to slowly chip away at Kupp’s role before fully taking over once he’s 100% healthy.

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Michael Penix Jr. - QB - ATL - Penix has had awful luck with knee injuries and finds himself rehabbing from another one.

I’ve stated numerous times my hesitation around drafting players coming off ACL injuries. It’s not as meaningful to me when it comes to QBs.

Penix appears to be ahead of schedule in his recovery and is expected to compete with newly signed Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa.

All things being equal, Penix would win that battle easily. Penix coming off an injury leads me to believe that we’ll see Tua first, then Penix when the team feels he’s healthy enough.

We know that Falcons have some solid options in the passing game so take your pick of QBs here, but my bet is on Penix as the QB we’ll want in Atlanta this season.

[Big Pick Daddy @BigPickDaddy]

Jordan James - RB - SF - I expected Jordan James to have a larger role than he did last year but the Niners needed every ounce of production from McCaffrey who almost never left the field.

Niners leadership is saying they don’t plan on giving McCaffrey the same workload this season which is smart.

James will start the season 2nd on the depth chart, but Kaelon Black, who the Niners took in the 3rd round this year and had rated as their 2nd highest back in the draft after Jeremiyiah Love, could take over that role in camp.

This will be a battle to watch heading into the year. I think both backs have value and I’m comfortable taking either in Purdy stacks or on their own.

McCaffrey’s workload from last year is not sustainable so I expect production from other places in the Niners backfield this year. If McCaffrey were to miss time, my guess is they would feature a combination of both James and Black.

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Evan Engram - TE - DEN - Engram’s first year in Denver was mostly a disappointment where we saw him only score once.

If there’s good news to be found is put up more catches and yards last season than his last year in Jacksonville. His best days are behind him and the Broncos selected Justin Joly as his successor so it’s hard to get excited about Engram.

The silver lining is Engram is usually one of the last starting TE’s available so I won’t fault anyone for taking them as their 3rd TE especially if that’s done to round out Bo Nix stacks.

[Big Pick Daddy @BigPickDaddy]

@HAWKJOHNSON6 You’re not alone. I think there’s a lot of people who’d like to see that.

[Big Pick Daddy @BigPickDaddy]

Kirk Cousins - QB - LV - Cousins value will come down to what the Raiders plan is for Mendoza. For rookie QBs, making their first start after the BYE is usually a good baseline to use and for Las Vegas that’s week 13. That might end up being what we see here considering the Raiders have improved their offensive line, added a new coach, and also play a last season schedule.

All of that bodes well for a path for Cousins to do just enough to keep the seat warm for Mendoza until after the BYE. However, reality could set in on Cousins sooner than later as he’s looked cooked each of the last 2 seasons and the Raiders schedule is front-loaded with the better defenses they’ll face.

Raiders minority owner, Tom Brady, was instrumental in signing off on taking Mendoza first overall. I mention this only because Brady didn’t play his rookie year. I doubt we see a full red-shirt year for Mendoza like Brady had because fans will be itching to see the #1 pick on the field. My best guess is Mendoza starts the 2nd half of the year.

Cousins is barely draftable in traditional formats, but I’m fine with him as a best ball option.

[Big Pick Daddy @BigPickDaddy]

@HAWKJOHNSON6 Hope you’re right league is more fun when the raiders are competitive and nothing more fun than you like that cousins

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Elijah Sarratt - WR - BAL - Mendoza’s college teammate, Sarratt, comes into the league as a polished, physical possession WR with elite route savvy, strong hands, and contested-catch ability, winning as a chain-moving technician more than a pure speed or YAC burner.

With that profile, I expect him to be on the field a lot and it wouldn’t surprise me if he catches 50 passes in this offense.

He’s a must target for me in Lamar stacks and I won’t fault anyone for grabbing him with one of their last picks. Someone has to catch the ball after Zay and Andrews and Sarratt is my pick for that role.