I guess the best place to work for a worst forecaster is a central bank. ING summarized the spectular performance of the Riksbank's interest rate projections over time. Should we believe in their current projection?https://t.co/gjCA1k86Ua
A slide from Norges Bank presentation today. If you are talking about the past, yes, you can say rapid rise, but if you are going to forecast future, you should focus more on trend after the peak. I think they just want to stay aligned with other central bankers...
@donnelly_brent The treasury will borrow 1T in 3 months. Until now money in the repo flowed into the treasury but the duration might change the picture. If the rates start ticking up after this downgrade, combined with duration, bonds might sell off, and bank reserves might deplete. Any views?