Will the market tank when Dangote Refinery gets listed?
The simple answer is yes. There will likely be an impact, and we could see a broad-based sell-off. However, I think the extent of that sell-off may be overstated.
If Dangote Refinery lists at a $50bn valuation, it immediately becomes one of the largest listed companies in Africa. Assuming about 10% is floated, the IPO could raise roughly $5bn, making it by far the largest equity issuance in Nigerian history.
Institutional investors do not have unlimited cash.
Many pension funds, mutual funds, insurance companies, and asset managers will likely:
Sell portions of their existing holdings → Raise cash → Subscribe to the IPO
Suppose a fund has ₦20bn invested and ₦1bn in cash. If it wants to invest ₦5bn in Dangote Refinery, it only needs to sell about ₦4bn of its existing holdings. That selling pressure can temporarily depress prices.
However, this is largely a one-time reallocation of capital, not a permanent destruction of demand. Once allocations are complete, the forced selling largely disappears (that is, if the selloff has not even happened in June sef).
That said, there is another point that deserves more attention.
If Dangote Refinery enters the NGX All-Share Index with a significant weight, index funds, benchmarked pension mandates, ETFs, closet indexers, and other benchmark-aware investors will all need to own it.
To maintain benchmark weights, they will have to reduce exposure to other holdings. That creates mechanical selling across many existing large-cap stocks.
But there is also another side to the story.
The Nigerian market is much deeper than it was a few years ago. There are now several sources of demand that simply did not exist at the same scale before.
✑ Retail participation has improved materially.
✑ PFAs continue to receive monthly pension contributions.
✑ Foreign investors may return for such a landmark listing.
✑ The NGX is actively encouraging greater cross-border African participation.
So while domestic fund managers may sell existing positions to fund their allocations, they are unlikely to be the only buyers.
A better way to think about this is that there are two opposing forces.
Force 1: Structural demand shifts towards Dangote Refinery
Suppose the NGX looks like this today:
✑ Banks: 30%
✑ Cement: 20%
✑ Telecoms: 15%
✑ Oil & Gas: 8%
✑ Consumer: 10%
✑ Others: 17%
Now assume Dangote Refinery lists and immediately accounts for 25-30% of the index. Every benchmark-aware fund now needs to own roughly that weight.
A manager who previously held:
✑ GTCO: 8%
✑ Zenith: 7%
✑ MTNN: 10%
may permanently reduce those positions to:
✑ GTCO: 5%
✑ Zenith: 4%
✑ MTNN: 7%
Those weights may never return, simply because Dangote Refinery now occupies a meaningful portion of the portfolio.
So yes, there will likely be a permanent reallocation of capital.
Force 2: New money continues entering the market
Fund managers do not operate with fixed pools of capital forever.
Every month:
✑ Pension funds receive new contributions.
✑ Mutual funds receive fresh subscriptions.
✑ Insurance companies collect premiums.
✑ Foreign investors may allocate capital.
✑ Retail investors continue buying.
Suppose a fund grows from ₦100bn to ₦120bn over the next year. Even if Dangote Refinery continues to represent 25% of the portfolio, the remaining 75% has also grown in absolute terms.
Immediately after the IPO:
✑ Dangote Refinery: ₦30bn
✑ Other stocks: ₦90bn
One year later, assuming assets grow to ₦150bn while maintaining the same portfolio weights:
✑ Dangote Refinery: ₦37.5bn
✑ Other stocks: ₦112.5bn
Notice what has happened.
Although the percentage allocation to the other stocks is lower than before, the absolute amount invested in them has actually increased because the overall pool of capital has expanded.
That is why I do not think this will be the armageddon many people expect.
Yes, there will likely be short-term selling pressure. Yes, there will be a structural reallocation of capital towards Dangote Refinery.
But over time, as fresh capital continues entering the market, much of that pressure should be absorbed. The long-term outlook for the broader market is therefore likely to be far less severe than many currently fear.
In your twenties, your biggest asset isn’t money. It’s time and earning potential.
A portfolio compounding for forty years beats a bigger one compounding for fifteen.
Which means the priority order is skills first, habit second, amount third.
Invest something monthly even if it’s small. You’re building a system, not a balance.
Nobody taught us this in school. So I will.
How to start investing from zero in Nigeria.
Step one. Fix your foundation first. Before you invest a single naira, you need three things in order. A small emergency fund of at least one month of expenses in a liquid account. Zero high-interest debt eating your returns before they arrive. And a clear picture of your monthly income and spending. You cannot build wealth on a leaking foundation. Plug the holes first.
Step two. Start with the safest instrument available. Treasury Bills. You are lending money to the Federal Government of Nigeria and collecting between 18% and 22% per annum. The government has never defaulted on a T-bill. You can access them through your bank, Cowrywise, or PiggyVest starting from N50,000 through your bank or as low as N1,000 through fintech platforms. This is where your first investment naira should go T-bills. I did not say stocks or crypto.
Step three. Open a mutual fund account. Cowrywise gives you access to over 20 mutual funds managed by ARM, Stanbic IBTC, and United Capital from as little as N100. A money market fund inside Cowrywise is essentially a professionally managed pool that buys T-bills and bonds on your behalf and passes you the returns. It is T-bill exposure without the paperwork. Start here if T-bills directly feel complicated.
Step four. Add Nigerian stocks when you are ready. The NGX crossed 192,000 points in early 2026, rewarding patient investors who stayed in quality names through the volatility. You do not need a broker in a suit. Download Trove or Bamboo. Start from N1,000. Buy one stock in a company you understand. GTCO. MTNN. Dangote Cement. Hold it. Watch it. Learn the rhythm before you add more.
Step five. Add dollar exposure. Nigeria's inflation is running at approximately 30% in 2026. Every naira you leave uninvested loses purchasing power daily. Risevest, Bamboo, and Trove all let you invest in US stocks and ETFs from your phone. A single unit of a S&P 500 ETF like VOO gives you exposure to the 500 largest companies in the world simultaneously. This is your naira devaluation hedge.
Step six. Be consistent, not perfect. The single most important variable in wealth building is not which platform you use or which stock you pick. It is consistency. N5,000 invested every month for five years at 18% per annum becomes more than N500,000. The math works if you show up every month. Set an automated deduction and remove yourself from the decision entirely.
You do not need to be rich to start investing in Nigeria in 2026. You need N1,000 and a phone. The barrier is not money it never was. The barrier was information and now you have it.
These four names form the core of my long-term holdings on the NGX.
1. Aradel
• Production continues to rise
• Refining contribution is growing
• Earnings expanding aggressively
• Stock has more than doubled year to date
2. MTN Nigeria
• H1 service revenue hit ₦3 trillion (up 26%)
• Profit after tax rose 71% to ₦707 billion
• Free cash flow exceeded ₦700 billion
• Data remains the clear growth engine
3. HBM Nigeria
• Volumes improving
• Operating margins expanding
• H1 profit up 57% to ₦208 billion
• Ownership change showing in the numbers
4. Zenith Bank
• Maintained trillion-naira profit levels in 2025
• Q1 2026 profit already at ₦314 billion
• Strong capital position and consistent dividend history
• Stock nearly doubled year to date
Four different engines delivering consistent earnings power.
If you are interested in holding 2 to 3 solid stocks for 3-5 years, you can pick them from this list. These are some of the best performances in NGX today and are good to hold long term
ZENITHBANK
SEPLAT
MTNN
GTCO
DANGCEM
PRESCO
FIRSTHOLDCO
UCAP
STANBIC
TRANSCORP
WAPCO
OKOMUOIL
ASSESSCORP
This is not all
choose 2 to 3 of them
research on them properly
invest with long term goal
If you will need the money in the next 2 years don't invest it
NFA
That iPhone vendor gave you an iPhone 15 or 14 in a sealed carton and you're happy?
Just know you're simply unboxing an already used phone that was repackaged.
Anything from iPhone 15, 14, 13 downwards, you can no longer find brand new ones.
The only iPhones whose new ones you can still surely find in 2026 are the 17 and the 16 series.
It doesn't mean the repackaged iPhones are automatically bad, but I'm only saying don't be deceived. But then, they might even be refurbished.
Don't get played by unscrupulous vendors who will sell a used or refurbished phone for the price of a new one.
If you're buying a sealed iPhone, here's the safest way to verify it's truly brand new:
▫️Before activation:
- Check the serial number, IMEI, and model number printed on the box.
- Paste the serial number in Apple's official Check Coverage page (I'll drop the link in the comments).
- If Apple indicates the device hasn't been activated, that's a strong sign it has never been used.
- If it shows a warranty expiration date, then the iPhone has been activated by someone before.
▫️After opening the box:
- Turn on the iPhone.
- Connect it to Wi-Fi and complete the initial setup yourself.
- Check the battery health and cycle count.
- The battery health of a brand new iPhone should be 100%.
- And the Cycle Count should be between 0 to 5 (which is even because of tests from the factory.)
- If the cycle count is around 10, 15, or more, that phone has been slightly used before.
- Finally, confirm that the serial number and model number in "Settings → General → About" are exactly the same as what's printed on the box because some sellers might print a fake serial number.
In case you're buying physically, if a seller refuses to let you perform these checks before completing the purchase, consider it as a red flag.
Don't get scammed.
Stay sharp! 🪒
You can save up to ₦300,000 if you buy a chip-unlocked iPhone.
That's probably why a lot of people continue to buy such phones.
But there are a lot of problems that come with them, which the vendor might not even tell you.
To begin with, we all know that some phones imported from abroad are usually locked to specific carriers like AT&T, Verizon, and the like. So, you'll need to unlock them before you can use the SIM cards of other countries such as Nigeria.
To bypass this lock, some sellers will now use a small chip (R-SIM) that allows your local SIM card to work on the phone.
Mind you, "chip unlock" is different from an actual "factory unlock" that will allow you to use any SIM card at any time without issues.
With "chip unlock"...
Technically, the phone network is actually still officially locked. It has only been bypassed.
Due to this, chip-unlocked iPhones have a lot of limitations and problems:
- You can lose network at any time.
- You start having "No Service" notifications.
- You must not reset your iPhone.
- You must not update your phone's software.
- You cannot switch SIM as you wish.
- The phone's resale value is also as good as worthless.
Such iPhones have given a lot of people very serious issues.
Avoid them completely.
Your peace of mind is better than the money you're trying to save.
In fact, before paying for any iPhone...
- Go to Settings > General > About.
- Then scroll and check Carrier Lock.
- If it says "No SIM restrictions," the phone is officially unlocked. If not, the phone is still locked.
Be wise.
And
Stay sharp! 🪒
I don’t think people understand how wealthy Claude would make you if you lock in. There’s a gallery of Claude skills that could level up your AI game👇🏽
Link: https://t.co/ImGvy2hguF
If you’re looking to squeeze better returns out of your short-term cash without taking wild equity risks, the FAAM High Yield Investment Scheme (HYIS) is one option worth looking at
Here is a quick breakdown of how it works
It is a privately managed, fixed-income product designed to give better yields than standard bank deposits
It is for Investors looking to park capital safely while staying ahead of conventional savings rates
It has higher yield than standard money market funds, but built with capital preservation in mind
It’s an easy option to consider if you're building out a low-risk, income-generating layer in your portfolio
This is basically how to start using there app MyInvestar
Download the app
Create an account
Complete kyc verification
Fund your wallet
Then go to the Invest/Products tab and select your preferred product
High Yield Investment Scheme (HYIS): For higher fixed-income returns
FAAM Money Market Fund (MMF): For daily interest accrual and flexible withdrawals
Vault: For locked fixed savings
Enter your desired investment amount and confirm the lock in period or tenure
This is not a financial advice, always remember to do your own research