美股投资快译

帮助中文投资者打破语言墙 Breaking the Language Barrier for Chinese Investors in U.S. Stocks

[美股投资快译 @BilingualReader]

1965年，Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) 的 India 安装第二台办公室计算机的时候，但工会从中作梗。两年间，积极分子在外面进行了24小时的守夜，阻止机器的安装。

工会赢了。这一次，至关重要的是，州政府站在了工人一边，而不是老板一边：1969年，由 Communist Party of India (Marxist) 领导的 West Bengal 新政府告知LIC，如果他们试图安装机器，将不提供警方保护。

[The Economist @TheEconomist]

States ultimately decide how fast technology is adopted https://t.co/DZ7sLP692Z

[美股投资快译 @BilingualReader]

以���列的大学生里，差生居然是很多的

[The Economist @TheEconomist]

Some at college or university are testing no better than ten-year-olds https://t.co/tuX3cGVZ1q

[美股投资快译 @BilingualReader]

[摩根大通撤回对特斯拉的“强烈卖出”观点…目标股价从145美元大幅上调至475美元 - 中立意见]

摩根大通大幅缓和了对特斯拉的原有悲观论调。

汽车部门分析师从瑞安·布林克曼（Ryan Brinkman）更换为拉贾特·古普塔（Rajat Gupta）后，摩根大通将特斯拉的投资意见从Underweight上调至Neutral，并将目标股价从145美元上调至475美元。

这一变化重要的原因在于，摩根大通长期以来是华尔街对特斯拉最强烈的悲观论者之一。

布林克曼以特斯拉车辆销售���缓、库存增加、现金流负担为依据，提出了2026年底目标股价为145美元的预测，这是在当时股价基础上假设大幅下跌可能性的展望。

新分析师古普塔的观点则不同。

他开始将特斯拉视为不仅仅是电动汽车企业，而是连接自动驾驶、机器人出租车、人形机器人、AI芯片、软件服务等领域的Physical AI企业。 特别是将硬件和软件在产业规模上垂直整合的这一点，他评价为“被低估且被误解”。

摩根大通认为，特斯拉的营收可能从2025年的约950亿美元增加到2030年的约2030亿美元，增长超过一倍，而这一增长的相当部分预计将来自汽车主业之外的自动驾驶·机器人·服务新业务。

不过，监管批准、安全性验证、技���商业化、机器人·机器人出租车扩散速度仍被划定为重大的风险因素。

[GUTE_RachelHan @GuteslaX]

[JP모건, 테슬라 ‘매도급’ 시각 철회…목표주가 145달러에서 475달러로 대폭 상향 - 중립의견]

JP모건이 테슬라에 대한 기존 비관론을 크게 완화했습니다.

자동차 담당 애널리스트가 라이언 브링크만(Ryan Brinkman)에서 라자트 굽타(Rajat Gupta)로 바뀐 뒤, JP모건은 테슬라 투자의견을 Underweight에서 Neutral로 올리고 목표주가를 145달러에서 475달러로 상향했습니다.

이 변화가 중요한 이유는 JP모건이 오랫동안 월가에서 가장 강한 테슬라 비관론자 중 하나였기 때문입니다.

브링크���은 테슬라의 차��� 판매 둔화, 재고 증가, 현금흐름 부담을 근거로 2026년 말 목표주가를 145달러로 제시했으며, 이는 당시 주가 대비 큰 폭의 하락 가능성을 전제한 전망이었습니다.

새 애널리스트인 굽타의 관점은 다릅니다.

그는 테슬라를 단순 전기차 기업이 아니라 자율주행, 로보택시, 휴머노이드 로봇, AI 칩, 소프트웨어 서비스까지 연결된 Physical AI 기업으로 보기 시작했습니다.
특히 하드웨어와 소프트웨어를 산업 규모로 수직통합한 점이 “저평가되고 오해받고 있다”고 평가했습니다.

JP모건은 테슬라 매출이 2025년 약 950억 달러에서 2030년 약 2,030억 달러로 두 배 이상 증가할 수 있다고 봤고, 이 성장의 상당 부분이 자동차 본업이 아니라 자율주행·로보틱스·서비스 신사업에서 나올 것으로 예상했습니다.

다만 규제 승인, 안전성 검증, 기술 상용화, 로봇·로보택시 확산 속도는 여전히 큰 리스크로 남아 있다고 선을 그었습니다.

[美股投资快译 @BilingualReader]

没有人关心是谁制造了那个价格低于1美元的多层陶瓷电容器（MLCC），它让机架中每个芯片的电压保持稳定，每台AI服务器需要数万个这样的电容器，供货周期已经大大延长，而且正经历前所未有的价格飙升。AI服务器的MLCC需求预计到CY27将增长约5倍。新生产线的建设需要2年时间。瓶颈正在扩散。

[SemiAnalysis @SemiAnalysis_]

Nobody is asking who makes the <$1 multi-layer ceramic capacitor (MLCC) that keeps voltage stable across every chip in the rack, that every AI server needs tens of thousands of, that has long extended lead times, and going through an unprecedented price hike. AI server MLCC demand is growing ~5x by CY27. New production lines take 2 years to build. The bottleneck is spreading.

[美股投资快译 @BilingualReader]

$GEV GE Vernova 首席执行官谈及他们的业务：

“我们每天为全球发电量的 25% 提供电力。这相当于美国这个国家每天电力供应的 50%。超过 7000 台燃气轮机、超过 59,000 台风力涡轮机、超过 60 座核电站以及与之相关的电力设备。我们拥有价值 870 亿美元的服务���单积压，到 2027 年，这将为我们的服务业务带来约 200 亿美元的服务收入。”

[The Transcript @TheTranscript_]

$GEV GE Vernova CEO on their business:

"We're generating 25% of the world's electricity every day. It's about 50% of this country, the U.S.'s electricity every day. Over 7,000 gas turbines, over 59,000 wind turbines, over 60 nuclear plants and the associated electrical equipment attached to that. We've got an $87 billion services backlog that will generate by 2027, about $20 billion of services revenue across our services businesses"

[美股投资快译 @BilingualReader]

鸿海精密（Foxconn 母公司）报���称，四月至五月的销售额增长 34%，超出六月季度的预期。收入达到 1.69 万亿新台币，约合 536 亿美元，五月销售额环比增长 40%。

富士康还在人工智能服务器需求加速后上调了第二季度展望，其服务器业务现已超过智能手机，成为最大的收入贡献者。

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

Foxconn parent Hon Hai reported 34% sales growth for April-May, ahead of June-quarter expectations. Revenue reached NT$1.69T, or ~$53.6B, with May sales up 40% MoM.

Foxconn also raised its Q2 outlook after AI server demand accelerated, with its server business now surpassing smartphones as the largest revenue contributor.

[美股投资快译 @BilingualReader]

你告诉我Anthropic和Google每年给SpaceX支付约260亿美元用于计算资源？？！

这超过了OpenAI和Anthropic运行速度的一半以上，而且这只是计算交易，还完全没算上火箭发射。

埃隆无意中拥有了AI领域三种最稀缺资产中的相当大一部分……电力、芯片和物理部署能力。这里的最佳教训是，如果你在一场淘金热中卖镐头和铲子，你不一定需要自己找到金子。你只需要让其他人继续挖就行了。而且非软件领域的埃隆几乎是不可阻挡的，就像巅峰迈克尔·乔丹那种。

[signüll @signulll]

you're telling me anthropic & google are paying spacex ~$26b a year for compute?!!

this is more than half the run rate of openai & anthropic just from compute deals & that doesn't even factor in the rocket launches at all.

elon accidentally ended up owning a significant portion of three of the scarcest assets in ai.. power, chips, & physical deployment capability. the best lesson here is that if you’re selling picks & shovels during a gold rush, you don’t necessarily need to find the gold. you just need everyone else to keep digging. & also non software elon is pretty much unstoppable, like prime michael jordan type thing.

[美股投资快译 @BilingualReader]

1935年出生的日本女性中约有13%没有孙辈。而2000年出生的女性，这一预计数字是45%。老年人自然希望在社会福利项目中得到良好对待，但他们也关心未来几代人所承受的经济负担。换句话说，人们既自私又利他。然而，随着与未来几代人联系的减弱，老年选民越来越不倾向于支持长期解决方案——更乐意接受那些会给未来几代人带来负担的财政赤字。

[The Economist @TheEconomist]

Getting buy-in from older people is the big challenge, writes Shirakawa Masaaki, a former head of Japan’s central bank https://t.co/s1xMzgqxJF

[美股投资快译 @BilingualReader]

James Watt 在1760-1780年代的发明使蒸汽机效率足够高，能够为工厂提供动力。这导致了一段经济高速增长时期，似乎与通货膨胀调整后工资的停滞期相吻合。在1790年至1840年间，工资几乎没有变化，即使资本家获得了巨额利润。

[The Economist @TheEconomist]

Mass unemployment induced by AI would be unprecedented https://t.co/bSxzuajBSV

[美股投资快译 @BilingualReader]

日本已经处于一种缓慢进行的“丽兹·特拉斯”式爆炸之中——货币贬值的同时收益率却在上升——这种状态已持续3年。日本是最好的例证，证明利用央行人为压低收益率毫无作用。你最终还是会陷入危机。

https://t.co/Jygilm6KjH

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

Japan has been in a slow-motion "Liz Truss" blow-up - whereby the currency falls even as its yields rise - for 3 years. Japan is the best illustration that using your central bank to artificially cap yields accomplishes nothing. You still end up in crisis.
https://t.co/pFGlrwogEE

[美股投资快译 @BilingualReader]

今年的5月9日莫斯科的胜利日阅兵式没有任何胜利的意��。20年来，坦克和其他军用车辆首次没有隆隆驶过红场，以庆祝苏联在击败纳粹德国中的作用。俄罗斯当局认为将装甲车和导弹运载车塞进附近的集结区风险太大——它们将成为一个过于诱人的目标，因为Ukraine’s越来越有效的无人机。

[The Economist @TheEconomist]

As casualties soar in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin looks ever more beleaguered at home https://t.co/UY5LvwEG1z

[美股投资快译 @BilingualReader]

在 Austin 的道路上，绝大多数 Tesla @robotaxi 都是无人监管的，这还是第一次…… https://t.co/3HI7hh43O8

引用原文: @MilMileBattery 继续扩张 $TSLA

现在德克萨斯州有 **38** 辆无人监督的 Robotaxi，高于之前的 36 辆

两辆车都是在 AUSTIN 增加的

[Jeff Lutz 🔋 @thejefflutz]

For the first time, a MAJORITY of the Tesla @robotaxi (s) on the road in Austin are UNSUPERVISED … 👀

[美股投资快译 @BilingualReader]

“你会发现最容易赚钱的地方在体育，”他说。“体育吸引了所有那些病态的年轻人，我猜。”他澄清说，这里的“病态”指的是赌博成瘾者。

在Kalshi上，他观察到，大量的休闲交易者只是对他们希望发生的事情押注“是”。“这在加密货币��股票交易所中是看不到的，那里人们交易的是证券，”他说。

量化交易公司SIG联合创始人杰夫·亚斯（Jeff Yass）在2020年的一次体育博彩播客中表示：“无论是体育博彩、扑克游戏还是期权交易，其核心都是确保你是在与一个不如你聪明的人对赌。”

[The Wall Street Journal @WSJ]

A WSJ analysis found 67% of Polymarket profits goes to just 0.1% of accounts, while most traders are in the red. Most Kalshi users also lose money. https://t.co/Bq3Ei9e8WD

[美股投资快译 @BilingualReader]

温斯顿·丘吉尔用砖块对抗他的抑郁症。他会在肯特郡的乡间宅邸里砌砖砌上几个小时。他加入了砖瓦工工会。1921年，他写文章解释了为什么这有效。心理学花了另外75年才赶上这一步。

他把自己的抑郁症称为“黑狗”。它追随了他几十年。他对抗它的方法听起来就像它本身一样基本：一块接一块地砌砖，一小时又一小时。

丘吉尔在《斯特兰德杂志》上的一篇长文中阐述了他的理论。他写道，那些靠思考谋生的人，无法仅仅通过休息来修复疲惫的大脑。他们必须动用自己的另一部分。那部分能驱动眼睛和双手的部分。木工、化学、装订、砌砖、绘画。任何能把身体拖入一个大脑无法独自解决的问题的东西。

现代心理学现在将此称为行为激活。这是目前研究最多的抑郁症治疗方法之一。抑郁症设下了一个行为陷阱。你感觉糟糕，于是停止做事，做得越少，就越少有值得感觉好的事情。感觉更糟让你做得更少。这个循环收紧，直到你无法在里面呼吸。

行为激活从行动端打破这个循环。你先安排活动，即使你身体的每一个部分都不想做。去做它会产生小的奖励：墙砌得更直了，一幅画填满了，一个乱糟糟的房间变干净了。这些小的奖励慢慢重塑大脑。行动先行，感觉随后而来。

华盛顿大学的研究人员在2006年对此进行了测试。他们研究了241名患有重度抑郁症的成人，并比较了三种治疗：行为激活、常规谈话疗法和抗抑郁药。对于抑郁最严重的人来说，行为激活的效果与药物相当。它胜过了谈话疗法。2014年对26项试验中超过1500名患者的回顾性审查证实了这一结果。

像砌砖这样的体力劳动在此基础上还有额外的好处。它挤走了反刍思维，那些在抑郁症最糟糕阶段反复折磨人的坏念头。砌砖需要双手，并砖块一个接一个地提供反馈：每个砖块是直的还是歪的。一个小时后，你就能精确看到自己砌了多少墙。没有空间留给那些精神上的咀嚼。

乔治·马克在他帖子中用的那句话，“抑郁症讨厌移动的目标”，是很好的诗句。它背后的科学更犀利。抑郁症讨厌一个有别处可去的大脑。

[Anish Moonka @anishmoonka]

Winston Churchill fought his depression with bricks. He'd lay them for hours at his country home in Kent. He joined the bricklayers' union. And in 1921 he wrote about why it worked. It took psychology another 75 years to catch up.

He called his depression the "Black Dog." It followed him for decades. His method for fighting it back was as basic as it sounds: laying brick after brick, hour after hour.

Churchill spelled out his theory in a long essay for The Strand Magazine. People who think for a living, he wrote, can't fix a tired brain just by resting it. They have to use a different part of themselves. The part that moves the eyes and the hands. Woodworking, chemistry, bookbinding, bricklaying, painting. Anything that drags the body into a problem the mind can't solve by itself.

Modern psychology now calls this behavioral activation. It's one of the most-studied depression treatments out there. Depression sets a behavior trap. You feel bad, so you stop doing things, and doing less means less to feel good about. Feeling worse makes you do even less. The loop tightens until you can't breathe inside it.

Behavioral activation breaks the loop from the action side. You schedule the activity first, even when every part of you doesn't want to. Doing it produces small rewards: a wall gets straighter, a painting fills in, a messy room gets clean. Those small rewards slowly rewire the brain. Action comes first, and the feeling follows.

Researchers at the University of Washington put this to the test in 2006. They studied 241 adults with major depression and compared three treatments: behavioral activation, regular talk therapy, and antidepressants. For the people who were most severely depressed, behavioral activation matched the drugs. It beat the talk therapy. A 2014 review of more than 1,500 patients across 26 trials backed up the result.

Physical work like bricklaying does something extra on top of this. It crowds out rumination, the looping bad thoughts that grind people down during the worst stretches of depression. Bricklaying needs both hands and gives feedback brick by brick: each one is straight or crooked. After an hour you can see exactly how much wall you built. No room left for the mental chewing.

The line George Mack used in his post, "depression hates a moving target," is good poetry. The science behind it is sharper. Depression hates a brain that has somewhere else to be.

[美股投资快译 @BilingualReader]

Roundhill 刚刚为世界首个预测市场 ETF 提交了新的生效日期，定于 5 月 11 日星期一，所以只是推迟了几天。猜测他们今天与工作人员进行了通话，但不确定，请继续关注... $REDP $BLUP https://t.co/AtvxpSD2l2

[Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas]

Roundhill just filed new effective date for the world's first-ever prediction market ETFs for Mon 5/11, so just pushed back a few days. Guessing they had call with Staff today, not sure tho, stay tuned... $REDP $BLUP

[美股投资快译 @BilingualReader]

市场对 $META 因 CapEx 增加而施加惩罚的反应，在我看来，将被证明是非常错误的。

在 $META Q325 财报电话会议上，Zuck 已经很好地解释了，如果 $META 为内部需求过度建设计算基础设施，他们���以将其出售给外部方。

我们正处于计算需求与供给失衡的最大时期之一，而且这种失衡似乎正在恶化，而不是改善。$GOOGL GCP 首席执行官 Kurian 预计，需求将在未来 10 年内超过供给。

$META 巨大的 AI 计算能力，要么以其产品形式带来投资回报（他们已经在展��这一点），要么/并且通过向外部公司出售计算能力带来巨大回报。$META 投资于 AI 数据中心计算是一项巨大的资产，而不是现金消耗，这与他们之前大规模的元宇宙投资类似。

市场却将其视为负面因素，而不是在计算资源受限的世界中一个巨大的战略优势。

[Rihard Jarc @RihardJarc]

The market reaction of punishing $META because of the increase in CapEx will turn out to be very wrong IMO.

In the $META Q325 earnings call, Zuck already explained well that if $META overbuilds their compute infrastructure for internal needs, they can sell it to external parties.

We are in one of the biggest compute demand/supply imbalances that seems to be getting worse, not better. $GOOGL GCP CEO Kurian expects demand to be bigger than supply for 10 years.

$META's enormous AI compute capabilities will either return ROI in the form of their products (which they are already showing) or/and give great ROI by selling compute to external companies. $META investing in AI data center compute is a big asset, not a cash burn, similar to what metaverse investments were in large.

The market is viewing it as a negative, instead of an enormous strategic advantage in a compute-constrained world.

[美股投资快译 @BilingualReader]

Workday 的 GRR 达到 97%。ServiceNow 达到 98%。两者都位居公共 B2B 技术栈的顶端。

而两者都面临风险。

原因如下：

它们的 GRR 并非建立在产品热爱之上，而是建立在锁定效应上。

- Workday 推动 4-6 年的续约周期。每年仅有约 20% 的客户面临续约。即使 30% 不续约，GRR 仍能维持在 94%。

- ServiceNow 对 1 年期合同收取 10% 的溢价。大多数客户默认选择 3 年期选项。即使一半客户在续约时流失，GRR 也仅下降约 17%。

长期合同掩盖了衰退。留存率计算隐藏了多少客户正在悄然寻求退出……但就是找不到出口。

这不仅仅是 Workday 或 ServiceNow 的问题。这是一种模式：

- Salesforce 将每笔主要企���交易引导至 3-5 年。
- Oracle Fusion 从 3-4 年起步。RISE 通过 50% 以上的终止费将你锁定。
- SAP 的标准合同内置 3-5 年。

如今，企业级 GRR 超过 92%？几乎总是意味着长期锁定。这与年度合同时代看到的信号不同。

对于 Workday 和 ServiceNow 来说？合同时钟正在滴答作响。当预算转向……锁定机制最终崩解时，会发生什么？

[SaaStr.ai @saastr]

Workday has 97% GRR. ServiceNow has 98%. Both sit on the top of the public B2B stack.

And both are at risk.

Here's why:

Their GRR isn't built on product love. It's built on lock-in.

- Workday pushes 4-6 year renewals. Only ~20% of its customers are up for renewal each year. Even if 30% don’t renew, GRR still prints 94%.

- ServiceNow charges a 10% premium for 1-year terms. Most customers take the 3-year option by default. If half churn at renewal, GRR only dips ~17%.

Long-term contracts mask decay. The retention math hides how many customers are quietly seeking an exit... but just can't find the door.

And this isn’t just a Workday or ServiceNow problem. It's a pattern:

- Salesforce nudges every major enterprise deal to 3-5 years.
- Oracle Fusion starts at 3-4 years. RISE locks you in with 50%+ termination fees.
- SAP’s standard contracts are 3-5 years baked in.

Today, GRR above 92% in enterprise? Almost always means long lockups. Not the same signal we saw with annual contracts.

For Workday and ServiceNow? The contract clock is ticking. What happens when the budget pivots... and the lock-ins finally break?

[美股投资快译 @BilingualReader]

@jefflijun @diyas_1989 可以参考一下美国的CFIUS，很多年后都可以退，或者要求再卖掉。

[美股投资快译 @BilingualReader]

$BAC 美國銀行：「中低收入家庭正在大幅撤退，而高收入者仍然更加活躍。而且差距正在擴大——這表明負擔能力壓力正在將流動性本身變成一種奢侈品。」 https://t.co/GG9pLivyXP

[The Transcript @TheTranscript_]

$BAC Bank of America: "Lower- and middle-income households are pulling back sharply, while higher earners remain far more mobile. And the gap is widening – suggesting that affordability pressures are turning mobility itself into a bit of a luxury good."