Bill Moore

CRO w/ Compeer of Farm Credit System. In MN, but Boston-born & forever linked. Views are own or stolen from others. It's what I see. #IowaState & #Clemson Dad.

[Bill Moore @BillMooreROIC]

"I disagree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it.” Evelyn Beatrice Hall on the 18th-century philosopher, Voltaire.

[Bill Moore @BillMooreROIC]

Beef Packer margins are -4%. Tyson's beef division posted a $151mm loss in Q3, its 7th consec Qly loss. Boom in chicken demand helped offset beef unit, as consumers move toward cheaper alts. Also demonstrated by Pilgrim Pride’s plan to build a new $400mm chicken plant in GA.

[Bill Moore @BillMooreROIC]

Tyson CEO sees a long-awaited cattle-herd rebuild cycle set to begin "in earnest" next year, but any meaningful supply recovery likely won't materialize until '28. The first emerging signs are that ranchers are starting to retain heifers for breeding operations.

[Bill Moore @BillMooreROIC]

Choice Beef approaches $9.50. Years of herd reduction, driven through elevated inflation, high feed costs, and adverse weather across the cattle belt, have shrunk the nation's herd to its smallest size since the early 1970s. Live Cattle Prices are 2x the 10yr historical price.

[Bill Moore @BillMooreROIC]

@DiMecoSarah @truecrimepod She is in the strong gravitational pull of the Albert orbit. She only claimed this a full year later, never recorded it in any report, and her testimony of who and how she supposedly told this doesn't hold water (meaning it was demonstratively false).

[Bill Moore @BillMooreROIC]

@Rebecca58163285 @CoffindafferFBI They are paid

[Bill Moore @BillMooreROIC]

I think if I locked myself alone in my basement for three days, I would not have come up with a worse set of sketches than the ones performed on #SNL50thAnniversary

[Bill Moore @BillMooreROIC]

With A-Rod out of the way, I am buying the Minnesota Timberwolves from Glen Taylor.

[Bill Moore @BillMooreROIC]

Powell did say, "If we saw unexpected weakening in the labor market, that would make us cut rates sooner." Well, the jobs number blew out to the upside today.

[Bill Moore @BillMooreROIC]

Powell threw cold water on a March rate cut today. Stock markets reacted poorly. Interesting to me that the 10-year was also down - by 11 bps.

[Bill Moore @BillMooreROIC]

Corn and beans managed-money are deeply net short - 13% of open interest as of 1/22. Last 3 times it reached similar extreme, spot recovered ~20%. Short-covering is normal in Jan-Apr as markets often add price premium for risks of poor Corn Belt production. (Blmbg)

[Bill Moore @BillMooreROIC]

Unemployment rose in 43 states, even as national joblessness fell (-0.1 ppts), largely thanks to labor strength in Texas

[Bill Moore @BillMooreROIC]

If you have renewed recently, you know. Nationwide average increase in US homeowners insurance rates was 11.3% in 2023, according to S&P.

[Bill Moore @BillMooreROIC]

Fed is changing the rate terms of the emergency bank funding facility (BTFP) to eliminate the free arb for banks, and probably the first step to letting it expire in March - which will likely cause a wide variety of banks to tap the Fed Window.

[Bill Moore @BillMooreROIC]

HNY to all! In case you had other things going on Christmas day, go back and check out my appearance on the 'Business of Agriculture' podcast, The U.S. Economy and What It Means for Ag in 2024, via your podcast outlet, or this YouTube link: https://t.co/CIhJAldxBn

[Bill Moore @BillMooreROIC]

POST Holdings is uncertain the effects the current Bird Flu wave will have on results. Hoping they can procure enough eggs to avoid price spikes. The disease was a tailwind to profits previously, but long run could drive consumers from eggs and dis-incentivize production.

[Bill Moore @BillMooreROIC]

Kellogg's thinks it can gain 500bps of margin improvement with flat sales with cost savings alone - although haven't shared the full story of how to get there.

[Bill Moore @BillMooreROIC]

Kraft/Heinz says it had a 4-6% longer-term adjusted EBITDA growth baked into its budget assuming that gross margins will grow. It also points to the fact that it doesn't need to fully cover inflation because of the cost cutting efficiencies it is generating (~3%/year).

[Bill Moore @BillMooreROIC]

and added. The company says it is making sure customers can buy only a limited amount of product in advance of price hikes.

[Bill Moore @BillMooreROIC]

From Int'l candy & snack food giant, Mondelez, the goal is to recover rising input costs by a similar retail price change, but recognizes with certain products and geography, it’s not always achievable. Nevertheless, it is confident it will get more pricing in the US next year.

[Bill Moore @BillMooreROIC]

Inside of two weeks, the #Fed switched their stance from "don't count on it" to "we'll look at it" language regarding 2024 #RateCuts. Seem to be bending to market pressure despite risks of cutting too early. 10yr T now < 4%