Bio Vic

Investing in small-caps LONG, biotech, tech, AI Infrastructure. HODL while the thesis holds. NFA #BIOVIC

[Bio Vic @BioVic777]

$SLNH closed $1.22 +6% on 13M, 84% avg vol. Range $1.18-$1.31, closed at 31% of the day. HOD hit $1.31 midday then faded 7% into the close. Cohort avg +6.25% (KEEL +8, HUT +7.5, CLSK +6.9, RIOT +6.5, CIFR +6.2). SLNH matched the cohort on its own catalyst day. Bitdeer 8-K got priced by lunch. First named counterparty was real. Re-rate signature wasn’t. Kati 2 still the game. Holding 440K.

[Bio Vic @BioVic777]

tnya close $0.70 +4.12% on 1.7M vol (~66% avg). reclaimed the exact level lost yesterday.
textbook post-flush recovery shape. opened $0.67 flat, held VWAP all day, closed above it. 154k block at $0.696 mid-session was on the way UP, not distribution. MOC pushed high of $0.71 with a 96k bar. buyers in control all session.
XBI +3.00% and every AAV name bounced (RGNX +10.6%, SLDB +7.97%, RCKT +7.22%). yesterday’s RGNX contagion got fully unwound. sector risk-on cooperated.
for context on what happened after yesterday’s close: millennium filed 13G showing 11.58M shares = 5.2% of tnya. crossed 5% on 8/17. englander’s shop building through the boring period drift. some of what we called distribution the last 3 weeks was millennium building. today’s reclaim tape is consistent with that read.
both catalyst crons ran clean this morning. no new filings. no PR. no analyst action. nov-dec RIDGE-1 window unchanged.
im HODL. no thesis breakers. long unless something breaks. sub-.70 was the accumulation zone. today confirmed it.
nfa #biovic

[Bio Vic @BioVic777]

$SLNH shares available to short at this prime broker went from 7.1M to 0 in the last update. Progression yesterday: 7.6M ramping down through 7.1M into the close, then 0 this morning post Bitdeer 8-K. Not the total borrow pool but a real demand signal from a leading prime desk. Short side pulling inventory or new shorts eating it faster than lenders can restock. Combined with the +11% tape and cohort beat, first real setup change in weeks. Holding 440K.

[Bio Vic @BioVic777]

$SLNH new 8-K. Subsidiary signed with Dory Creek, wholly owned by Bitdeer $BTDR. 28 MW deployment at Kati 1, 1.93 EH/s, Sealminer A2 Pro Air. Ramps in batches starting September. Co-mining structure, not flat hosting — Soluna provides site, power, ops; Bitdeer owns the machines; both parties share mining proceeds.
First named public-company counterparty in this cycle. Kati 1 already hit first gross profit Q2. This is real, near-term, and de-risks the “can they close named deals” bear case. Not the MSA. Kati 2 remains commercial terms signed with one unnamed tenant. This is BTC hosting at Kati 1, not the AI anchor at Kati 2. Holding 440K.

[Bio Vic @BioVic777]

after-hours filing just dropped. worth its own post.
millennium management just filed a 13G on tnya. 11,581,565 shares. 5.2% of the company. trigger date 8/17. filed today at 5:48 PM ET.
that’s englander’s shop. one of the largest and most sophisticated multi-strat quant funds on the street. they don’t cross 5% in a $150M market cap biotech by accident and they don’t file passive 13Gs for names they’re about to dump.
let that sink in with what the tape has been doing. we’ve spent the last 3 weeks chopping between $0.65 and $0.75 on what looked like distribution, and today closed on 4M vol at $0.67 which looked like more of the same. it wasn’t. some of the size printing on the offer was millennium building. they crossed 5% on 8/17 which means the accumulation happened during the boring period drift. the exact tape most retail was calling distribution.
this is why boring period tapes trick people. weak hands sell to smart hands and it just looks like slow selling. it’s not. it’s transfer.
context on millennium in sub-$1 biotech: they’ve shown up in the holder lists of most beaten-down clinical stage names i’ve tracked. their pattern in the comps was adder during sub-$1 to $2 crossings, not trimmer. this filing is consistent with that.
what it means practically:
•passive 13G means they aren’t looking to influence, just holding
•they can add or trim without filing again unless they cross 10% or drop below 5%
•the position implies conviction on the nov-dec RIDGE-1 catalyst or the alnylam curve or both
•it doesn’t mean the stock rips tomorrow. it means the shareholder base just got materially stronger
•weak hands who sold today at $0.66 sold to millennium
am i changing anything? no. still HODL. still 963k @ .9432. still no thesis breakers. but the character of the tape just got clarified in a big way. what looked like distribution was accumulation by one of the smartest quant books in the game.
sit tight. let it work.
nfa #biovic

[Bio Vic @BioVic777]

$SLNH portfolio update. position at 440K shares, cost basis $1.48, closed $1.15 today, down $145K unrealized, 22% drawdown. same story as TNYA, different sector.
this is the AI-infra small-cap version of the same trade. large caps in this space (WULF, CIFR, HUT) grind on capacity announcements. small caps like SLNH sit dead between named catalysts and then re-rate 100-300% on the disclosure. named tenant on Kati 2 is the print. everything between here and there is chop.
six sessions this week capped at $1.23. cohort ripped Thursday (MARA +15, HIVE +11) and SLNH lagged by 7 points. that isn’t damage. that’s proxy discount. the market is paying up for named-tenant tape and marking down unnamed-LOI tape. correctly.
what i’m not doing: trimming into the DEF 14A dilution architecture, chasing the miners on green days, cutting to save capital that isn’t at real thesis risk. the invalidation list is written down. Kati 2 LOI still active, commercial terms signed, lease in negotiation. Dorothy 3 land closed today, 397 acres adjacent to owned wind farm, 300 MW campus. Carver hire from Microsoft’s hyperscale team on the books. management stable. no going-concern language in the 10-Q.
what i am doing: reading every 8-K the day it drops, tracking borrow (4.5%, 7.5M available, no squeeze setup), watching for the DEFA14A, and letting the position work into the MSA window. -22% is not fun to look at. it’s also not the reason to sell. the reason to sell is the invalidation list, and none of it has fired.
Q2 ATM was already the biggest fear (74M shares, $113M raised) and the stock survived it. the 1B authorized-share vote on Oct 16 is background architecture, not a new catalyst. the actual catalyst is a filing with a name on it.
patience isn’t hope. patience is the rule when the thesis is intact and the math still works. small caps make you earn the re-rate by sitting through the ugly. Kati 2 is the whole game. sitting.
nfa #biovic

[Bio Vic @BioVic777]

$tnya $SLNH portfolio update. active book at $1.15M. down $37k today, down $407k over the last 6 months, 26% drawdown. not pretty. also not the point.
quick note before the rest. this is a small cap game. large caps don’t do this. large caps chop 5-10% in a range and grind. small caps, especially clinical stage biotechs, live in 20-40% drawdowns between catalysts and then re-rate 100-300% on data. that’s the whole trade. if you can’t sit through the drawdown you can’t collect the re-rate. two sides of the same coin.
people confuse drawdown with damage. they’re not the same thing. damage is losing money on a broken thesis. drawdown is holding a thesis while the tape works through boring periods, sector rotations, low-volume selling, and pre-catalyst positioning fatigue. one you cut. the other you sit through.
if i traded my p&l instead of my thesis i would have flipped out of tnya at .91 in february, .96 in march, and 1.00 in may. each of those drops felt like the same thing this feels like. each one reloaded to a higher level within 4-6 weeks on catalyst. the tape doesn’t tell you which drop is different. the fundamentals do.
six-month chart looks like a step up in june followed by chop. that step was me adding size on conviction after work on the fundamentals. the chop since is the market discounting the wait time to the next catalyst. i knew going in that gene therapy names sit dead 4-6 months between updates. nov-dec RIDGE-1 is the next real print. between here and there, the tape is going to feel like it feels right now.
what i’m not doing: trimming into weakness, chasing rotation, cutting to preserve capital that isn’t at real risk. the thesis breakers list is written down. none have fired. cash position covers runway. partnership economics unchanged. clinical program on track. management team stable.
what i am doing: watching the crons, reading every filing the day it drops, keeping dry powder for the flush zones, and letting the position work. -26% is not fun to look at. it’s also not the reason to sell. the reason to sell is when the story changes. it hasn’t.
patience isn’t hope. patience is a rule. when the thesis is intact and the math still works, you sit. when it isn’t, you don’t. small caps make you earn the re-rate by sitting through the ugly. that’s the whole game.
nfa #biovic

[Bio Vic @BioVic777]

$SLNH new filing: DEF 14A dropped today, definitive proxy for the Oct 16 virtual annual meeting. Record date Aug 21 (already past). Six proposals — the two that matter: authorize up 375M to 1B shares, and lift the SEPA exchange cap with YA. Nothing new vs the Aug 14 preliminary. Same dilution architecture, now voted-ready. Not a Kati 2 catalyst. Holding 440K. NFA.

[Bio Vic @BioVic777]

$SLNH -3% to $1.15 on 8.5M, 54% of avg. Range 1.13-1.21, closed at 25% of day. Cohort avg -2% (HIVE -5.6, IREN -4.9, KEEL -2.4, MARA -0.7). Dorothy 3 land close 8-K this AM — 397 acres adjacent to owned Briscoe Wind Farm, 300 MW campus. Market shrugged. Fifth session capped at $1.23. Named tenant or bust. Holding 440K. NFA

[Bio Vic @BioVic777]

tnya close $0.67 -3.24% on 4M vol (~157% avg). rough day, no news.
heaviest volume tape in ~3 weeks and it printed into the flush not into a rally, so it’s a sellers day. that 228k bar at $0.66 around 12:50 ET was the tell. programmatic seller or block cross working through, ate the $0.68 support and dropped us to a new low.
but two things worth noting for tomorrow:
close was on VWAP not below it. the MOC bar was a buy from $0.6612 back to $0.6694. someone stepped up on the bell. that’s not the shape of continuation selling into the close, more like a hand off.
XBI -0.95%. sector soft, small biotechs amplify. no filings, no PR, no rating changes, no offering. checked EDGAR and news wires. Nov-Dec RIDGE-1 window unchanged. alnylam biobucks unchanged. cash runway unchanged.
pattern matches feb/mar/may boring period flush days. those all had one 3M+ volume down day inside the drawdown before base building started. this looks like that day.
$0.66 is the line. hold it tomorrow and we base $0.66-0.72. lose it and $0.60-0.62 is next. accumulation zone for anyone with dry powder.
im HODL. no thesis breakers. long unless something breaks.
nfa #biovic

[Bio Vic @BioVic777]

$TNYA been thinking about the tnya exit path and the more i map it the less it looks like a 2027-2028 sale story
alnylam deal has ~$539M in biobucks stacked behind it. real cash starts hitting in 2028-2029 as ind and phase 1 milestones convert. selling the whole company before that curve kicks in is textbook value destruction, and the board knows it
hyllengren is the tell. amgen alliance mgmt guy, not a run-a-quick-sale-process guy. atara $500M+ in raises track record. park square placed him. that profile is for expanding partnerships and executing capital raises, not for handing the keys to a strategic in 18 months
so the real playbook prob looks like this
nov-dec 26 ridge-1 interim clean, tape rerates to 2.50-4.00
q1-q2 27 regional tn-401 partnership, prob roche or novartis, $300-500M upfront + biobucks + royalties, tape to 4-6
h2 27 tn-201 co-dev deal with bms/pfe/lly, 50/50 profit share, another $400-600M upfront, tape to 6-9
2027-2028 alnylam expands current collab to multi-target cardiac platform, more biobucks, tape to 7-11
2028 pivotal-enabling data across programs, tape to 10-15
2029 alnylam biobucks convert to real cash on the P&L, tape to 12-18
2030-2031 actual full company m&a with alnylam as most likely bidder, deal at 25-45/share, market cap 5-10B
the sarepta/roche elevidys ex-us deal is the template. sarepta kept 100% US economics on their biggest asset, got $750M upfront + $1.15B milestones + royalties from roche, tape ripped. tnya can run that exact play on tn-401
the vertex/crsp casgeby template works for tn-201. 60/40 profit share, upfront cash, commercial partner de-risks launch, both sides win
autl trap gets avoided three ways. partner handles commercial. partnership + biobucks fund the pivotal. multiple strategics circling means no single-buyer power dynamic
the two things this changes for position mgmt
first, dont trim at 2-4. that’s the trigger rerate, not the exit. bailing there wastes the real 10-20x
second, actual exit trigger is either the alnylam expansion moment in 27-28 (maybe scale out 30-40% at 6-9) or the banker-run process opening in 29-30 (exit remainder at 20-30+)
full company m&a before 2029 leaves too much on the table. management has fiduciary duty to let biobucks convert first. delaware courts will scrutinize any early sale process
the hold is longer than a quick m&a pop but the ultimate print is 3-4x bigger than the “get bought in 2028” framing
hodl the biobuck curve
nfa #biovic

[Bio Vic @BioVic777]

$tnya catalyst ladder mapped out. no fluff, just dates + what tape should do if data lands clean vs breaks. baseline current .69
near term
•aha nov 7-10 2026: narrative pop, .85-1.20
•tn-401 ridge-1 interim nov-dec 2026: clean 2.50-4.00, break .30-.45
•tn-301 phase 2 design q4 2026: .90-1.30
h1 2027
•tn-201 mypeak-1 follow-up: clean 1.60-2.40
•tn-201 pivotal design reveal: 1.80-2.60
•tn-401 ridge-1 pivotal-enabling: clean 2.50-4.00, break .60-.90
•asgct may: tn-501 preclinical data, small pop
h2 2027
•tn-301 phase 2 start
•aha nov 2027
•tn-201 + tn-401 pivotal enrollment starts
1h 2028
•tn-201 long-term follow-up: clean 3.50-5.50
•tn-401 long-term follow-up: clean 4.00-6.50
2h 2028
•tn-301 phase 2 interim
•tn-501 ind filing
•aha nov 2028
late 2028
•tn-201 pivotal interim: clean 6.00-9.00, break 1.50-2.50
•dworf ind filing
assumptions
•nov-dec ridge-1 is the pivot. clean read anchors the whole ladder. break resets everything 40-60% lower
•h1 2027 raise baked in at 15-25% dilution
•xbi tape adds/subtracts 15-25% per event
•q3 13fs need to confirm the q2 buying (millennium, mw, rentec, gsa)
biggest single ev event is ridge-1 nov-dec. everything else derives from it
#biovic nfa

[Bio Vic @BioVic777]

$tnya .69 -3% on the sector puke. xbi -3.6%, gave back most of yesterday’s rip
tnya moved with the tape but slightly outperformed the sector. range .69-.73 vol 1.52M on light flow
.68 low from monday still holds. three sessions defending .68-.69 now
no name-specific news, no filings, just sector beta doing sector beta things. yesterday’s +2 was xbi giving, today’s -3 was xbi taking
base is intact but chop is grinding. next real trigger is .73 reclaim with vol or a break of .68 with vol. anything in between is noise
#biovic nfa

[Bio Vic @BioVic777]

$SLNH $1.19 close on 8.5M. Inside yesterday’s range. Failed the $1.23 reclaim on light volume.
Cohort ripped without it. MARA +15, HIVE +11, CIFR +8, HUT +8, WULF +6 while $SPY red. Miners running on the AI-pivot story for the second day. SLNH lagged by 7 points.
The proxy discount is widening not closing. Two-day cohort: MARA +23, HIVE +12, HUT +10. SLNH +1.7. Names with tenant clarity get bid. Unnamed LOI does not.
Not distribution. Not accumulation. 51% of average volume is neglect. Money flowed to where the story is already told.
Kati 2 unchanged. Insider filed Form 144 for preferred, not common. Borrow 4.67. Holding 440K.

[Bio Vic @BioVic777]

$tnya closed .71 +2%, gave back most of the open move
opened .70, tagged .73 in first 25 min, faded all day, closed near lows. range .70-.73 vol 1.92M
xbi ripped +5.91% on the day. tnya only +2%. underperformed sector by 400bps. that’s a soft tape
no fresh flush though. .70 held, .68 low from monday still intact. still constructive base building, just no breakout yet
overhead supply at .72-.73 is real. buyers stepped in on the sector rip but didn’t press it. digesting still
if xbi holds tomorrow and tnya can reclaim .73 with vol, that’s the real signal. today was a warning shot that the base needs more time
#biovic nfa

[Bio Vic @BioVic777]

$SLNH $1.20 close +2.5% on 10.7M. Low $1.10, closed at $1.22 high. Textbook hammer.
Yesterday closed at lows on 12.5M distribution. Today reversed on almost matching volume. That is participation, not tape noise.
Cohort decoupled from semis today. MARA +7.7 on 66M, KEEL +3, IREN +2, HUT +2, HIVE +1.5 while $NVDA closed red. Miners rallied on their own catalyst, not on a macro bounce. AI-pivot narrative bought pure-play first.
Still below the $1.23 earnings-day floor. Tomorrow needs a reclaim on volume to make this a real trend change. Without it, this is a bounce inside a lower range.
Nothing filed today. Kati 2 unchanged. Borrow 4.60%. Holding 440K.

[Bio Vic @BioVic777]

$tnya .73 +4% on the open, .72 reclaimed clean

xbi +4.5% ripping, so sector tailwind is real. but tnya moving in lockstep, not lagging

390k vol in 25 min pacing to 6M+ on the day. that's institutional flow showing up, not retail chop

yesterday's setup called for .72 reclaim as the trigger that the flush was done. got it on the open

flow reads:

monday distribution absorbed on tuesday's flat digestion

q2 13fs showed 6x buy/sell imbalance from smart money

sell-to-cover pressure gone

.68 held twice, .70 held clean

watching .76 next as the range reclaim. if it holds .72 into the afternoon, this move continues

#biovic nfa

[Bio Vic @BioVic777]

$SLNH $1.16 close, low $1.15. The $1.23 earnings-day floor is gone.
KEEL -16, CIFR -13, WULF -11.5, HIVE -9.5. Cohort avg -10%. SLNH at -13% is beta-appropriate for an AI-power name on an NVDA-financing unwind day.
$SMH -4%, semi index -3.6% at the open. Long yields up, AI-capex ROI debate reignited by the NVDA-OpenAI $105B headline, and NVDA prints Aug 26.
Volume 12.5M — real selling, not the flush. 22M would be capitulation.
Holding.

[Bio Vic @BioVic777]

$tnya digestion day after yesterday’s flush
.70 close, -0.23%, vol 2.17M vs 4.28M yesterday. .68 held again. range .68-.70
xbi green +0.26, so no macro tailwind. tnya trading on its own tape and it stabilized
yesterday’s base rate said down another 3%+ today. actual: -0.23. supply from the sell-to-cover flow got absorbed, algos moved on, buyers back around .68
nothing broke. same range, half the volume, no follow-through selling. that’s what absorption looks like after a distribution day
still watching for .72 reclaim as the trigger that says the flush is done
#biovic nfa

[Bio Vic @BioVic777]

$SLNH pre-market down 4.5% with the entire cohort red. Semiconductors down 3%. This is macro risk-off, not SLNH-specific.
Two-day pattern from Friday hammer to Monday marubozu is what matters, not one red premarket print. The setup was Friday close $1.32, Monday marubozu $1.28 to $1.33 on half volume, and now a cohort-driven pullback that tests whether $1.28 holds as new support.
What to watch today: does SLNH hold $1.23-1.28 as the accumulation zone, or does the proxy overhang amplify cohort weakness beyond beta. Cohort is down ~3% average premarket. SLNH beta-adjusted would be -4% to -5%. Anything worse than that is proxy-specific selling and matters. Anything in that range is normal small-cap tape.
The thesis was never a hammer that ran to $2 in three days. It is coiled overhang that pays out when MSA lands. Every day the earnings-day low $1.23 holds is one more day the floor gets stronger.
Position unchanged.