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๐๐๐ง๐๐ข๐๐ก ๐จ๐ฃ๐๐๐ง๐ : ๐๐
๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐ต๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ถ๐ณ๐ ๐ฏ๐
Two months ago I handed you the exact playbook.
I told you to hibernate through the 60s and 70s.
Itโs not worth stressing out by entering in a wider counter trend trade, risks are too high.
I warned you and I hope you didnโt let the chop drain your capital or your patience because the moment weโve been waiting for has finally arrived.
Price is now pushing above 80k. Right into our designated premium shorting zone.
If you look at your timeline people are euphoric. They are screaming that the bull market is back and FOMOing into green daily candles.
This is the exact exit liquidity the market makers engineered this pump to collectโฆ
Discipline pays! We sleep through the noise so we can strike at the extremes!
Gradual entries, no over exposure, always keep dry powder
๐๐๐ง๐๐ข๐๐ก ๐จ๐ฃ๐๐๐ง๐: ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ถ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ป๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฃ๐ต๐ฎ๐๐ฒ (๐ก๐ผ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ๐ฑ) ๐ป๐ค
A quick update to the February 17th roadmap.
We are deep in the โHibernation Phaseโ. The price is bouncing and we can already seeing people FOMO back in.
Imagine if we hit 80โs or even 90โsโฆ
For me the strategy has not changed one bit.
๐ ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ข ๐ง๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฝ
I have zero doubt we are going to make a lower low in the coming weeks or months.
Longing this is a statistical a suicide mission. The MM goal right now is to drain your capital and your patience before the real flush happens.
๐ฏ ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐ต๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ถ๐ณ๐ (๐ด๐ฌ๐ธ - ๐ต๐ฌ๐ธ)
If the market decides to squeeze late shorters and give us a major relief bounce into the $80kโ$90k region, do not mistake it for a trend reversal. It is a liquidity grab. If we get there, it is a highly profitable premium zone to short the market. We sell their hope.
๐ฅ ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ถ๐ฑ๐ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐บ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ป๐ฐ๐ต๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฑ (<๐ฒ๐ฌ๐ธ)
My buy orders remain open below $60k.
The Playbook Right Now:
โข Pump into the 80s/90s? Short it.
โข Chop in the 60s/70s? Ignore it.
โข Flush below 60k? Buy it.
โก๏ธ Do not let a bounce break a macro plan. Let the tourists exhaust themselves in the middle.
We hibernate until the extremes are hit.
Until then good night ๐ด
Highly unlikely we see the 80kโ90k zone tagged again. If we do itโs another opportunity to add more shorts.
Entering any new shorts below $80k is not worth it as the risk/reward favorable.
Cash stays king. Better to preserve capital and let the market bleed out until itโs time to enter.
I donโt leverage trade but like I said in my post above 80k was too good to ignore.
๐๐๐ง๐๐ข๐๐ก ๐จ๐ฃ๐๐๐ง๐ : ๐๐
๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐ต๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ถ๐ณ๐ ๐ฏ๐
Two months ago I handed you the exact playbook.
I told you to hibernate through the 60s and 70s.
Itโs not worth stressing out by entering in a wider counter trend trade, risks are too high.
I warned you and I hope you didnโt let the chop drain your capital or your patience because the moment weโve been waiting for has finally arrived.
Price is now pushing above 80k. Right into our designated premium shorting zone.
If you look at your timeline people are euphoric. They are screaming that the bull market is back and FOMOing into green daily candles.
This is the exact exit liquidity the market makers engineered this pump to collectโฆ
Discipline pays! We sleep through the noise so we can strike at the extremes!
Gradual entries, no over exposure, always keep dry powder
๐๐๐ง๐๐ข๐๐ก ๐จ๐ฃ๐๐๐ง๐: ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ถ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ป๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฃ๐ต๐ฎ๐๐ฒ (๐ก๐ผ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ๐ฑ) ๐ป๐ค
A quick update to the February 17th roadmap.
We are deep in the โHibernation Phaseโ. The price is bouncing and we can already seeing people FOMO back in.
Imagine if we hit 80โs or even 90โsโฆ
For me the strategy has not changed one bit.
๐ ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ข ๐ง๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฝ
I have zero doubt we are going to make a lower low in the coming weeks or months.
Longing this is a statistical a suicide mission. The MM goal right now is to drain your capital and your patience before the real flush happens.
๐ฏ ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐ต๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ถ๐ณ๐ (๐ด๐ฌ๐ธ - ๐ต๐ฌ๐ธ)
If the market decides to squeeze late shorters and give us a major relief bounce into the $80kโ$90k region, do not mistake it for a trend reversal. It is a liquidity grab. If we get there, it is a highly profitable premium zone to short the market. We sell their hope.
๐ฅ ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ถ๐ฑ๐ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐บ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ป๐ฐ๐ต๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฑ (<๐ฒ๐ฌ๐ธ)
My buy orders remain open below $60k.
The Playbook Right Now:
โข Pump into the 80s/90s? Short it.
โข Chop in the 60s/70s? Ignore it.
โข Flush below 60k? Buy it.
โก๏ธ Do not let a bounce break a macro plan. Let the tourists exhaust themselves in the middle.
We hibernate until the extremes are hit.
Until then good night ๐ด
๐๐๐ง๐๐ข๐๐ก ๐จ๐ฃ๐๐๐ง๐: ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ถ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ป๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฃ๐ต๐ฎ๐๐ฒ (๐ก๐ผ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ๐ฑ) ๐ป๐ค
A quick update to the February 17th roadmap.
We are deep in the โHibernation Phaseโ. The price is bouncing and we can already seeing people FOMO back in.
Imagine if we hit 80โs or even 90โsโฆ
For me the strategy has not changed one bit.
๐ ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ข ๐ง๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฝ
I have zero doubt we are going to make a lower low in the coming weeks or months.
Longing this is a statistical a suicide mission. The MM goal right now is to drain your capital and your patience before the real flush happens.
๐ฏ ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐ต๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ถ๐ณ๐ (๐ด๐ฌ๐ธ - ๐ต๐ฌ๐ธ)
If the market decides to squeeze late shorters and give us a major relief bounce into the $80kโ$90k region, do not mistake it for a trend reversal. It is a liquidity grab. If we get there, it is a highly profitable premium zone to short the market. We sell their hope.
๐ฅ ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ถ๐ฑ๐ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐บ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ป๐ฐ๐ต๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฑ (<๐ฒ๐ฌ๐ธ)
My buy orders remain open below $60k.
The Playbook Right Now:
โข Pump into the 80s/90s? Short it.
โข Chop in the 60s/70s? Ignore it.
โข Flush below 60k? Buy it.
โก๏ธ Do not let a bounce break a macro plan. Let the tourists exhaust themselves in the middle.
We hibernate until the extremes are hit.
Until then good night ๐ด
๐๐๐ง๐๐ข๐๐ก ๐จ๐ฃ๐๐๐ง๐ : ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฑ๐ผ๐บ ๐๐ผ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐๐๐ผ๐บ
๐ป
We are in a confirmed Bear Market nothing newโฆ.
The primary driver of losses right now is not price collapse, but boredom.
Retail are forcing capital into a statistically negative environment simply to feel activeโฆ donating liquidity in a zone designed to chop them up. ๐ช
๐ซ ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ "๐ก๐ผ-๐๐ผ ๐ญ๐ผ๐ป๐ฒ" ๐ถ๐ ๐ฎ ๐ง๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฝ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ง๐ผ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐๐
Trading above ๐ฒ๐ฌ๐ธ is currently negative EV.
This range is a volatility vacuum, designed to bleed impatient capital through chop and fake-outs.
Most participants are losing money here because they lack the discipline to do nothing.
This is the time to be strategic, to be patient and letting the tourists fight over scraps while the chart paints a clear roadmap for the next ๐ฎ ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐.
๐ฏ ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐ป๐ถ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ป๐๐ฟ๐: ๐ง๐ฎ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ผ๐๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐ฃ๐น๐ฎ๐
Entry at ๐ฑ๐ต๐ธ is strictly a ๐๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ต๐ป๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ฒ, not a marriage.
It is highly lucrative if timed correctly, but it is a swing trade, not a lifestyle. Risk management here must be tight.
๐ฆ ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐๐น๐ ๐๐ป๐๐ฟ๐: ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐๐ฐ๐น๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ผ๐๐๐ผ๐บ
The real opportunity lies around the ๐ฑ๐ฌ๐ธ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ด๐ถ๐ผ๐ป. (Maybe even below but letโs not be too greedy!)
This is the macro target where I intend to deploy ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ผ๐๐ ๐๐ถ๐๐ฒ for the next bull cycle.
This is not a trade it is long-term positioning for a multi-year horizon.
โณ ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ข๐ป๐น๐ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐บ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ฑ๐ด๐ฒ
The market will likely give us these prices, but not before it makes you wait until you are disgusted.
The algorithm of a bear market is designed to exhaust your patience before it fills your bids.
The question is not if the price will get there, but whether you will still have capital left to deploy when it doesโฆ
๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ด๐: Have a clear plan and do nothing until the price meets your plan.
โก๏ธ Discipline over activity. Execution over emotion.
@cryptorover This is a patriotic air defense missileโฆ ๐คฆโโ๏ธ
From the @WhiteHouse factsheet on the global 10% tariff (section 122):
Critical minerals (which include silver and PGMs), metals used in currency and bullion (all precious metals products), are exempted.
If that still leaves any doubt, there is also a second line item stating they will not tariff any natural resource the US is net short on.
https://t.co/taZfRLmBf9โฆ
Silver open interest and March deliveries.
Social media has become a sea of confusion, misinformation, and speculation involving silver futures and the March delivery month.
The fact is, the Comex is not going to default and March contracts are being liquidated or rolled in an orderly fashion.
We just saw a decline of 14,196 March contracts yesterday, which equates to almost 71 million ounces. This is happening with volatility declining.
It appears the market is strengthening under the surface with less participation. Not seeing the crowded conditions we saw in January.
Revolution
[a complete circle or turn round a centralpoint, axis]
[to roll back, to bring back]
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐๐๐ฃ๐ ๐ง๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ณ๐ณ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐น: ๐๐ฒ๐ด๐ฎ๐น ๐ฅ๐ผ๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ฃ๐ผ๐น๐ถ๐ฐ๐ ๐ฆ๐ต๐ถ๐ณ๐?
The US Supreme Court has struck down the administrationโs emergency tariff regime forcing Customs and Border Protection to abruptly halt collections.
However beneath the surface of this โlegal defeatโ lies a swift policy rotation that will keep the structural trade barriers completely intactโฆ
๐๏ธ ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐ง๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐๐ฎ๐๐
โข ๐๐๐ฃ ๐๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป: Collections of IEEPA tariffs officially cease at ๐ญ๐ฎ:๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฎ.๐บ. ๐๐ฆ๐ง on ๐๐ฒ๐ฏ๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฐ.
โข ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ณ๐๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฅ๐ถ๐๐ธ: Over ๐ญ๐ณ๐ฑ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป in collected revenues are now legally eligible for complex refund claims.
โข ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐น๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐: A new ๐ญ๐ฑ% global tariff immediately replaces the void, utilizing a different legal framework.
โข The mechanism has changed, but the restrictive trade environment remains fully anchored.
๐ ๐๐๐ฃ ๐๐ฎ๐น๐๐ ๐๐ผ๐น๐น๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ ๐ฎ๐ ๐ญ๐ณ๐ฑ ๐๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ณ๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ ๐๐ผ๐ผ๐บ
Following the Supreme Court ruling Customs and Border Protection is deactivating all tariff codes associated with the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
This creates an immediate fiscal vacuum, as these tariffs were generating over ๐ฑ๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐บ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป per day in gross revenue.
More importantly, it exposes the US Treasury to massive liability, with economists estimating that more than ๐ญ๐ณ๐ฑ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป in illegally collected duties are now subject to potential corporate refunds.
โ๏ธ ๐๐ฒ๐ด๐ฎ๐น ๐ฃ๐ถ๐๐ผ๐ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ง๐ต๐ฎ๐ป ๐ฎ ๐ฃ๐ผ๐น๐ถ๐ฐ๐ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐น
To interpret this as a return to free trade would be a severe miscalculation!
The Trump administration is not abandoning its protectionist stance it is merely rotating its legal authority.
As the IEEPA duties fall away, a new ๐ญ๐ฑ% global tariff is being simultaneously imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.
Furthermore, the targeted Section 232 and Section 301 tariffs remain completely untouched!
๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ผ ๐๐บ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐บ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐๐ฐ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐น๐น๐ ๐๐ป๐ณ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ฎ๐ฟ๐
This is a structural continuation of the current trade regime disguised as a cyclical disruption!
The refund process will be deeply protracted and litigious, meaning a sudden ๐ญ๐ณ๐ฑ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป liquidity injection for US importers is highly improbable in the near term.
Meanwhile, the rapid replacement of the tariffs guarantees that supply chains will continue to face elevated costs and persistent inflationary pressures.
Legal volatility. Structural protectionism.
#Trump #Trade #Tariffs
THE SILVER-EQUITY NEXUS ๐
The historical divergence between precious metals and risk assets is temporarily breaking down as we can observe in the chart below.
Cross-asset linkages seem to be tightening, for the time being silver is increasingly trading as a high-beta proxy for broader equity liquidity rather than an isolated monetary metal.
โช๏ธ STRONG POSITIVE CORRELATION EMERGES ๐
Equities and silver are exhibiting a surprisingly strong positive correlation in recent times.
They are currently moving largely in tandem, overriding traditional safe-haven dynamics.
This tightening relationship means risk transmission is bleeding directly across asset classes.
โช๏ธ EQUITY LIQUIDITY IS DICTATING METALS PRICING ๐
At present the broader macro tone remains cautiously bearish.
If a sustained equity selloff materializes it is highly likely to exert direct downside pressure on silver.
Conversely if equities can absorb the current selling pressure and stabilize, silver is positioned for rapid upward momentum.
โช๏ธRISK TRANSMISSIONS Trumps Isolated Fundamentals ๐
This implies a cyclical liquidity adjustment rather than a structural change in silverโs core thesis.
When cross-asset correlations approach one, it signals a macro environment driven by broad de-risking or re-risking rather than idiosyncratic value.
Confirmation from price action across both markets is now critical before sizing positions.
๐๏ธ KEY INTERMARKET SIGNALS TO MONITOR ๐
โข Correlation Window: Positive tandem movement
โข Downside Risk: Equity capitulation will drag silver lower.
โข Upside Catalyst: Equity stabilization provides a springboard for metals.
โข Tactical View: Watch the S&P for leading indicators on silver entry points.
โก๏ธ Cyclical correlation. Structural patience.
#Silver #spx #silversqueeze
These AI-generated videos circulating on Chinese social media are getting wilder and wilderโฆ here in this video ๐จ๐ณ Unitree humanoid robot soldiers in that โCMG 2026 Spring Festival Galaโ outfit are defeating the US military ร la The Avengers..
๐๐ข๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ถ๐ป๐๐๐ฒ๐: ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ธ๐ถ๐๐ต ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐น๐ถ๐๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฒ ๐ฆ
Reading FOMC minutes (๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐น๐๐ 18 ๐๐๐ ๐กโ๐ ๐ฝ๐๐ 27-28 ๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐) reveals a challenging environment for risk assets in the coming year.
The FED is signaling that meaningful monetary easing is unlikely! This is anchoring us in a regime of restrictive policy and structural uncertainty.
๐๏ธ ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐ง๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐๐ฎ๐๐
โข ๐๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐ผ๐บ๐ถ๐ฐ ๐๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐๐ต: GDP revised up and labor market stable.
โข ๐ฃ๐ผ๐น๐ถ๐ฐ๐ ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐๐ต: Neutral stance.
only ๐ญโ๐ฎ ๐ฐ๐๐๐ expected in ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฒ.
โข ๐๐ป๐ณ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐: Tariffs boosting core goods, late-2025 data skewed by shutdown.
โข ๐ฆ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐บ๐ถ๐ฐ ๐ฅ๐ถ๐๐ธ: High hedge fund leverage + mortgage refi market frozen by high rates despite Fannie/Freddie MBS purchases.
Hawkish baseline. Structural repricing of risk.
๐ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ผ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ๐ฟ
The Fed has revised GDP forecasts upward, signaling a surprisingly resilient economy.
Projections now indicate only ๐ญ ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ฎ ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐๐๐ for the entirety of ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฒ,
keeping the policy range at what officials currently consider "neutral."
Inflation is expected to stabilize but remain elevated with official forecasts ticking higher after a gov shutdown artificially understated November and December prints.
(we will see if Truflation proves more accurate)
๐ ๐ฌ๐ถ๐ฒ๐น๐ฑ ๐๐๐ฟ๐๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฆ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐บ๐ถ๐ฐ ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป
The spread between long and short-term rates is visibly wideningโฆ with long-term Treasuries climbing while the short end remains flat!
This dynamic highlights deep Fed concerns over debt sustainability and longer-term terminal inflation.
Meanwhile the labor market is stabilizing after a cooling period giving the committee cover to hold rates steady while continuing to roll over maturing Treasuries and purchase T-bills.
๐งฑ ๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐๐ฐ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ฅ๐ถ๐๐ธ
This is not a temporary pause it is a structural adjustment to sticky inflation driven by core goods and Trump administration tariffs, even as housing services finally cool.
The Fed is acutely aware of financial vulnerabilitiesโฆ specifically flagging the dangerous buildup of leverage among hedge funds and life insurance companies!
Short-term rate cuts are highly improbable absent a severe macroeconomic shock.
This is leaving Bitcoin and risk assets fighting a persistent liquidity headwind amid deep geopolitical uncertainty!
#Macro #FOMC #Fed
๐๐๐ง๐๐ข๐๐ก ๐จ๐ฃ๐๐๐ง๐ : ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฑ๐ผ๐บ ๐๐ผ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐๐๐ผ๐บ
๐ป
We are in a confirmed Bear Market nothing newโฆ.
The primary driver of losses right now is not price collapse, but boredom.
Retail are forcing capital into a statistically negative environment simply to feel activeโฆ donating liquidity in a zone designed to chop them up. ๐ช
๐ซ ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ "๐ก๐ผ-๐๐ผ ๐ญ๐ผ๐ป๐ฒ" ๐ถ๐ ๐ฎ ๐ง๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฝ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ง๐ผ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐๐
Trading above ๐ฒ๐ฌ๐ธ is currently negative EV.
This range is a volatility vacuum, designed to bleed impatient capital through chop and fake-outs.
Most participants are losing money here because they lack the discipline to do nothing.
This is the time to be strategic, to be patient and letting the tourists fight over scraps while the chart paints a clear roadmap for the next ๐ฎ ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐.
๐ฏ ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐ป๐ถ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ป๐๐ฟ๐: ๐ง๐ฎ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ผ๐๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐ฃ๐น๐ฎ๐
Entry at ๐ฑ๐ต๐ธ is strictly a ๐๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ต๐ป๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ฒ, not a marriage.
It is highly lucrative if timed correctly, but it is a swing trade, not a lifestyle. Risk management here must be tight.
๐ฆ ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐๐น๐ ๐๐ป๐๐ฟ๐: ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐๐ฐ๐น๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ผ๐๐๐ผ๐บ
The real opportunity lies around the ๐ฑ๐ฌ๐ธ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ด๐ถ๐ผ๐ป. (Maybe even below but letโs not be too greedy!)
This is the macro target where I intend to deploy ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ผ๐๐ ๐๐ถ๐๐ฒ for the next bull cycle.
This is not a trade it is long-term positioning for a multi-year horizon.
โณ ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ข๐ป๐น๐ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐บ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ฑ๐ด๐ฒ
The market will likely give us these prices, but not before it makes you wait until you are disgusted.
The algorithm of a bear market is designed to exhaust your patience before it fills your bids.
The question is not if the price will get there, but whether you will still have capital left to deploy when it doesโฆ
๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ด๐: Have a clear plan and do nothing until the price meets your plan.
โก๏ธ Discipline over activity. Execution over emotion.
Two months ago at $89k everyone was screaming for a Supercycle. I warned it was a liquidity trap.
We are currently sitting at $66k
Entering in the "Next Support Zone" I outlined in my December post.
The macro damage looks worst than anticipated in December, we are dropping faster than I could have expected.
I believe the cycle bottom is lower but right now Iโm looking at $59k
Despite the bearish structure, the Risk:Reward for a rebound at $59k is now heavily in favor of the bulls.
Not calling a bottom but calling a bounce hard to ignore.
NFA
#bitcoin #btc
@DefiWimar The actual data on the structural repricing is even more telling.
It confirms the long-term bull thesis !
๐๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ธ ๐๐ผ๐น๐ฑ ๐๐ฒ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ: ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐๐ฐ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฆ๐ต๐ถ๐ณ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐๐ฐ๐น๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฆ๐ผ๐ณ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด? ๐ฆ
The 2025 data regarding official sector gold accumulation has arrived. While headline volumes have retreated from record highs, a longer-term view reveals a fundamental change in the baseline demand function for sovereign reserves.
๐ต ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐น๐ถ๐บ๐ถ๐ป๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฎ ๐ฆ๐ต๐ผ๐๐ ๐ด๐ฒ๐ฏ.๐ฎ ๐ง๐ผ๐ป๐ป๐ฒ๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ฒ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐
World Gold Council estimates central bank demand reached ๐ด๐ฒ๐ฏ.๐ฎ tonnes in 2025.
This figure represents a ๐ฎ๐ญ% decline from the ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ record of ๐ญ,๐ฌ๐ต๐ฎ.๐ฐ tonnes.
While this data is preliminary and likely to be revised upward as lagging institutions report, it currently sits below the psychological ๐ญ,๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ-tonne threshold.
๐ต ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐บ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐ ๐๐ผ๐๐ฏ๐น๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ฒ-๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฎ ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ โ๏ธ
To determine if this is a bearish signal, we must compare the current run rate to historical averages.
Between ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฌ and ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ญ, central bank demand averaged ๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฏ tonnes per year.
Since ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฎ, a new regime has emerged. The four-year average (including 2025) now sits near ๐ญ,๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ญ tonnes.
Even with the year-over-year decline, ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฑ demand remains nearly double the pre-2022 average.
This marks the ๐ญ๐ฒ๐๐ต consecutive year of net buying from the official sector.
The market impact remains evident, with gold appreciating +๐ฐ๐ฒ% against the Euro over the same period.
๐ต ๐ฆ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ถ๐ด๐ป ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ป๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ด๐ผ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฎ ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ด๐ถ๐ฐ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐
The data suggests we are witnessing a structural repricing of sovereign reserves rather than a fleeting trend.
The failure to break the ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ record is a cyclical normalization, not a reversal of the thesis.
We have moved from a decade of tactical allocation (averaging <๐ฑ๐ฌ๐ฌ tonnes) to a strategic era of accumulation (averaging >๐ด๐ฑ๐ฌ tonnes).
This creates a persistent, non-price-sensitive bid underneath the market.
The "floor" for central bank demand has effectively shifted upward, driven by geopolitical fragmentation and a desire for neutral reserve assets.
๐ต ๐ญ๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ฐ๐ฐ๐๐บ๐๐น๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ผ๐ป๐ณ๐ถ๐ฟ๐บ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐๐ฐ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐น๐ผ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐งฑ
โข ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐๐ฒ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ: ๐ด๐ฒ๐ฏ.๐ฎ tonnes (preliminary).
โข ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฑ: ๐ญ,๐ฌ๐ต๐ฎ.๐ฐ tonnes.
โข ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ฒ-๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฎ ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ: ๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฏ tonnes.
โข ๐ฃ๐ผ๐๐-๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฎ ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ: ๐ญ,๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ญ tonnes.
โข ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ: ๐ญ๐ฒ years of net accumulation.
โก๏ธ Cyclical variance. Structural accumulation.
#Gold #CentralBanks #GoldDemand
๐จ๐ณ ๐ ๐๐ฅ๐๐๐ง ๐๐๐๐ฅ๐ง: ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ "๐๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ฎ ๐ฃ๐๐" ๐ถ๐ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ป๐ถ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ณ ๐๐ฎ๐๐
The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) goes dark for Lunar New Year. Here is why this matters for your positions:
๐๏ธ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐: Feb 15 โ Feb 23, 2026
๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ฎ๐๐๐: Market resumes Feb 24.
๐ฅ๐ถ๐๐ธ: ๐
For one full week, the world's largest physical buyer leaves the building. We are moving from a bilateral market (Physical + Paper) to a unilateral Western paper market.
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ผ ๐ฒ๐
๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐:
1๏ธโฃ ๐๐๐ ๐ & ๐๐ข๐ ๐๐ซ ๐๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ: Without the SGE arbitrage bid, price discovery happens entirely in London & NY.
2๏ธโฃ ๐๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐๐ถ๐๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ: Western shorts face no threat of physical delivery from the East.
3๏ธโฃ ๐ฉ๐ผ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐น๐ถ๐๐: Expect "Stop-hunts" and downside pressure in thin liquidity.
๐ข๐ฝ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐๐ป๐ถ๐๐: ๐
History suggests this is a seasonal liquidity gap, not a structural break.
โข ๐ฆ๐ฒ๐๐๐ฝ: Price softness during NY/London overlap.
โข ๐ฃ๐น๐ฎ๐: Watch for the "Holiday Discount" before Chinese desks reopen and the structural bid returns.
Seasonal silence. Tactical noise.
#Gold #XAUUSD #SGE
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐ถ๐น๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ถ๐๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐ป๐ฒ๐ฐ๐: ๐๐ป๐ฑ๐๐๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ฒ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐. ๐ก๐๐บ๐ถ๐๐บ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ฐ ๐๐ถ๐พ๐๐ถ๐ฑ๐ถ๐๐ ๐ช
Silver prices are pushing toward multi-decade highs but the physical market is exhibiting a structural dislocation.
The divergence between rising spot prices and collapsing premiums suggests a fundamental shift in how the metal is being monetized.
๐ต ๐ฆ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ช๐ต๐ถ๐น๐ฒ ๐ฃ๐ต๐๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐บ๐ถ๐๐บ๐ ๐๐ผ๐น๐น๐ฎ๐ฝ๐๐ฒ ๐
Silver has experienced significant appreciation driven by ๐ถ๐ป๐ฑ๐๐๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ (specifically solar and electronics) and inflationary hedging.
Paradoxically while the spot price is rising, ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐น๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐บ๐ถ๐๐บ๐ have collapsed.
In a rare market inversion, common-date silver coins are frequently trading ๐ฎ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ป ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐น๐ผ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ถ๐ฟ ๐บ๐ฒ๐น๐ ๐๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฒ.
The velocity of the price rise has outpaced buyer demand, compressing the spread between the paper price and the physical product.
๐ต ๐๐ป๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ถ๐ฐ ๐ ๐ฒ๐๐ฎ๐น ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฒ ๐๐ ๐ข๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐ธ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ผ๐น๐น๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐บ๐ถ๐๐บ ๐ญ
We are witnessing a "Melt Value Flip."
The intrinsic metal value of common silver coins now exceeds their numismatic (collector) value.
This creates immediate "๐บ๐ฒ๐น๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ."
Historic coins are being diverted from the collector market to refiners to be melted down for industrial use.
This permanently removes supply from the numismatic ecosystem, converting history into industrial feedstock.
๐ต ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐๐ฐ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ ๐ฆ๐ต๐ถ๐ณ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ผ๐บ ๐๐ผ๐ฏ๐ฏ๐๐ถ๐๐ ๐๐ผ ๐๐ป๐ฑ๐๐๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฎ๐น ๐
Dealers are facing liquidity squeezes and effectively widening spreads to manage volatility risk.
Many are bidding ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐น๐ผ๐ ๐บ๐ฒ๐น๐ ๐๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฒ to protect against sudden drawdowns.
Simultaneously, the entry price for hobbyists has shifted from accessible levels (๐ฎ๐ฌโ๐ฏ๐ฌ) to restrictive highs (~๐ญ๐ฌ๐ฌ).
This creates a high barrier to entry, forcing a transition toward a "new normal" of ๐ต๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ-๐๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฒ, ๐น๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ-๐๐ผ๐น๐๐บ๐ฒ trading.
๐ต ๐๐ถ๐๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐น๐น๐ฒ๐น๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ด๐ด๐ฒ๐๐ ๐ฎ ๐ฅ๐ผ๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ผ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ฒ๐ โณ
Analysts note strong parallels to the ๐ญ๐ต๐ด๐ฌ silver boom.
Historically, profits from a massive run-up in bullion eventually rotate back into ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ, ๐ต๐ถ๐ด๐ต-๐ด๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ถ๐ป๐.
These numismatic assets have remained relatively stagnant during the spot surge.
If history repeats, the stabilization of the bullion market could trigger a repricing of rare numismatics as capital seeks value in scarcity rather than just weight.
๐ต ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐บ๐ฝ๐น๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ฃ๐ต๐๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐น๐น๐ผ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ ๐
โข ๐๐ป๐ฑ๐๐๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ฒ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ: Driving spot price, not retail speculation.
โข ๐ฆ๐๐ฝ๐ฝ๐น๐ ๐๐ฒ๐๐๐ฟ๐๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป: Historic inventory is being melted.
โข ๐๐ถ๐พ๐๐ถ๐ฑ๐ถ๐๐: Dealer spreads are widening to manage risk.
โข ๐๐๐ฐ๐น๐ฒ ๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ฐ๐ต: Watch for capital rotation from bullion into rare numismatics.
โก๏ธShort-term dislocation. Long-term rotation.
#Silver #SilverSqueeze #Macro
๐๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ธ ๐๐ผ๐น๐ฑ ๐๐ฒ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ: ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐๐ฐ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฆ๐ต๐ถ๐ณ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐๐ฐ๐น๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฆ๐ผ๐ณ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด? ๐ฆ
The 2025 data regarding official sector gold accumulation has arrived. While headline volumes have retreated from record highs, a longer-term view reveals a fundamental change in the baseline demand function for sovereign reserves.
๐ต ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐น๐ถ๐บ๐ถ๐ป๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฎ ๐ฆ๐ต๐ผ๐๐ ๐ด๐ฒ๐ฏ.๐ฎ ๐ง๐ผ๐ป๐ป๐ฒ๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ฒ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐
World Gold Council estimates central bank demand reached ๐ด๐ฒ๐ฏ.๐ฎ tonnes in 2025.
This figure represents a ๐ฎ๐ญ% decline from the ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ record of ๐ญ,๐ฌ๐ต๐ฎ.๐ฐ tonnes.
While this data is preliminary and likely to be revised upward as lagging institutions report, it currently sits below the psychological ๐ญ,๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ-tonne threshold.
๐ต ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐บ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐ ๐๐ผ๐๐ฏ๐น๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ฒ-๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฎ ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ โ๏ธ
To determine if this is a bearish signal, we must compare the current run rate to historical averages.
Between ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฌ and ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ญ, central bank demand averaged ๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฏ tonnes per year.
Since ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฎ, a new regime has emerged. The four-year average (including 2025) now sits near ๐ญ,๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ญ tonnes.
Even with the year-over-year decline, ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฑ demand remains nearly double the pre-2022 average.
This marks the ๐ญ๐ฒ๐๐ต consecutive year of net buying from the official sector.
The market impact remains evident, with gold appreciating +๐ฐ๐ฒ% against the Euro over the same period.
๐ต ๐ฆ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ถ๐ด๐ป ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ป๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ด๐ผ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฎ ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ด๐ถ๐ฐ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐
The data suggests we are witnessing a structural repricing of sovereign reserves rather than a fleeting trend.
The failure to break the ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ record is a cyclical normalization, not a reversal of the thesis.
We have moved from a decade of tactical allocation (averaging <๐ฑ๐ฌ๐ฌ tonnes) to a strategic era of accumulation (averaging >๐ด๐ฑ๐ฌ tonnes).
This creates a persistent, non-price-sensitive bid underneath the market.
The "floor" for central bank demand has effectively shifted upward, driven by geopolitical fragmentation and a desire for neutral reserve assets.
๐ต ๐ญ๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ฐ๐ฐ๐๐บ๐๐น๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ผ๐ป๐ณ๐ถ๐ฟ๐บ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐๐ฐ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐น๐ผ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐งฑ
โข ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐๐ฒ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ: ๐ด๐ฒ๐ฏ.๐ฎ tonnes (preliminary).
โข ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฑ: ๐ญ,๐ฌ๐ต๐ฎ.๐ฐ tonnes.
โข ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ฒ-๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฎ ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ: ๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฏ tonnes.
โข ๐ฃ๐ผ๐๐-๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฎ ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ: ๐ญ,๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ญ tonnes.
โข ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ: ๐ญ๐ฒ years of net accumulation.
โก๏ธ Cyclical variance. Structural accumulation.
#Gold #CentralBanks #GoldDemand
https://t.co/ivXRKXJvQg
@KobeissiLetter People get too distracted by a misquoted soundbite while ignoring the mechanical reality of the "Warsh Vacuum" and what it implies.
https://t.co/S7cCFtUANy
โ๏ธ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐: โ๐๐๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฐ๐จ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐ง๐ฌโ ๐๐ฏ๐๐ซ โ ๐๐๐ซ๐โ๐ฌ ๐๐ก๐๐ญ ๐๐ญ ๐๐๐๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐๐ข๐ญ๐๐จ๐ข๐ง
Most of you did.. or did not โฆ pay attention to who replaced Powell.
Before the K. Warsh announcement, the market assumed: โNew Chair = Fresh Pump.โ
That missed the point.
This appointment is the single most important monetary policy shift since 2008.
Kevin Hassett (๐๐ก๐ ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ซ) was traded for
Kevin Warsh (๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ฎ๐ฆ).
๐ต ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐ก๐๐ฌ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ ๐ก๐ญ ๐ธ
Before the announcement, markets priced in Hassett.
He represented technological optimism, a continuation of the credit cycle where stablecoins and cheap debt keep the wheels turning.
Under that regime, liquidity expandsโฆ and Bitcoin flies.
๐ต ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐โ๐ซ๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ง
Warsh is different. Heโs a disciple of sound money.
He doesnโt believe the Fedโs job is to keep the S&P 500 at all-time highs.
He believes the Fedโs $๐.๐๐ balance sheet is a systemic risk that needs to be cut.
๐ต ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐ก๐๐ง๐ข๐ฌ๐ฆ ๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ก ๐ฅ
Why does this matter for your bags?
Bitcoin has a 0.43 correlation with Global M2.
It is a liquidity sponge.
โข Hassett would have turned the tap ON
โข Warsh is here to turn the tap OFF
Warsh appears focused on extracting ~$๐๐ from the banking system to restore Dollar credibility versus the Yuan and Gold.
You cannot have a shrinking money supply and a parabolic crypto market at the same time.
The math does not work.
๐ต ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐ก ๐๐๐ซ๐๐๐จ๐ฑ โ๏ธ
Hereโs the nuance most are missing: Warsh is not anti-Bitcoin.
He sees Bitcoin as a thermometer: a warning signal when government spending runs hot.
But hereโs the problem:
A thermometer doesnโt heat the house.
By fixing the Dollar and halting debasement, Warsh lowers the temperature.
He makes the Dollar attractive again.
A stronger Dollar is kryptonite for asset pricesโฆ at least in the short term.
๐ต ๐๐๐ ๐๐ก๐จ๐ฉ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ก๐๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฑ๐ญ ๐ช
A chop is forming between $๐๐๐ค โ $๐๐๐ค
(upper wicks could stretch all the way toward ~$๐๐๐ค).
Big money is distributing to retail that still believes the โFed Putโ is coming.
It isnโt.
Warsh will likely chose Austerity over Debasement.
โก๏ธ ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐ฒ ๐ฏ
I respect the mechanism. Iโm not fighting the Fed.
A range is forming where patience will be tested and leverage will be punished possibly for weeks or months!
After the chop, the liquidity drain likely pushes price through the current floor ($๐๐๐ค).
I have some bids near 59, but Iโm waiting for repricing in the $๐๐๐ค โ $๐๐๐ค zone before deploying serious capital
#bitcoin #fed #warsh
๐ณ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐: ๐ฝ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐. ๐น๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ข ๐๐๐๐๐ข๐๐๐. ๐ณ๐ ๐ข๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐.
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