Here's a piece I wrote for 10star on the importance of new balls.
Does anyone who bets on tennis in-play actually factor this into their strategy or allow it to dictate their models or entry points?
https://t.co/fbs0noAQtM
Dzumhur the more talented player out the two with the greater weapons and versatility to his game yet the market are opposing him. Why?
1. Dellien come through Quals
2. First clay match for Dzumhur
These are important factors however the market have gone too far in my opinion
@TidbitsTennis@mp9tennis Agree with your point. Market always overreact with these travel fades. In this case the schedule also helps Nardi out and even if it didn't is basilashvilli really playing well enough to capitalise. Loss to Bueno is AO quals and routined by T.Faurel in Quimper. Poor form atm
Eala drifting from a fav to an almost 2.2 underdog. Well that makes no sense. Was the market wowed by Sonmez in AUS or are they heavily factoring in travel time for Eala from the Phillipines. Either way feel like they've overreacted on both accounts. Can't justify Sonmez as fav.
Y.Wu price getting pumped out to 2.5 right now from around an evens SP. Doesn't make a load of sense to me. Either some big Marozsan fans out there or someone has some injury info on Wu. Exhibtion matches suggest he's fit so if thats the case would've had him like 1.8
Thank god Stanimal beat Rinderknech. That Shanghai run was such a fluke and the bookies keep pricing him off it even tho he's now lost 4 on the trot. There are some players whose games I hate. Rinderknech is one of them. I'm sure he's a nice guy tho classy runner up speech
Matia Bellucci should really be so much better than he is. Has an absolute cannon serve. Movements a joke. Lefty. Good hands. But. Every other forehand gets shanked into orbit. Tough one.
Musings:
New Year encourages goal-setting. In gambling, that instinct can work against you. The most dangerous target is a profit goal - when you chase a number, you stop waiting for value and start forcing decisions. Have conviction in your bets profit will take care of itself
This account has been dormant for some time now. Will be re-purposing it for 2026 to share some articles I have written on tennis and gambling. Feel free to engage with the content. Thanks