Bjarne Schieldrop

[Bjarne Schieldrop @BjarneSchieldro]

Here is my crude oil comment of today "The Physical versus the Financial world": https://t.co/Mx1DQC1rzG (Equities bouncing strongly while oil is not)

[Bjarne Schieldrop @BjarneSchieldro]

Iran oil exports is now a card on the US – China trade war table which China has the option to play

[Bjarne Schieldrop @BjarneSchieldro]

@extev enkelt å innkreve skatter via bompenger. Differensiere bensin mot el, men legge nivåene slik at totale inntekter blir som før.

[Bjarne Schieldrop @BjarneSchieldro]

@extev Det blir en lang og gradevis overgang.

[Bjarne Schieldrop @BjarneSchieldro]

Is the Golden age of infrastructure investments in China behind us? http://t.co/PURTSAcS

[Bjarne Schieldrop @BjarneSchieldro]

Oil price = tight market + economic optimism + some Iranian risk. Watch out for a spec loaded oil price correction if macro optimism falters

[Bjarne Schieldrop @BjarneSchieldro]

Speculative positions in WTI crude oil reached 16.8% vs total open positions last tuesday (2011 high: 17.5%). => increased price volatility

[Bjarne Schieldrop @BjarneSchieldro]

Summer air-cond. to boost Saudi's oil demand by 600kb/d and may reduce Saudi reserve capacity to 1 mb/d summer 2012 http://t.co/uFdPQ7S8

[Bjarne Schieldrop @BjarneSchieldro]

Bab Amr in Homs, Syria: "Activists there have recorded their last whishes. All we can do now is pray for them" http://t.co/5upa7bRs

[Bjarne Schieldrop @BjarneSchieldro]

Hopes are that non-OPEC supply will grow 900kb/d in 2012. At the moment it is down 500 kb/d yoy => fundamentally tight market

[Bjarne Schieldrop @BjarneSchieldro]

Developing markets are not very oil price sensitive. The oil price increased 40% last year and still non-OECD demand growth was +3% in 2011

[Bjarne Schieldrop @BjarneSchieldro]

IEA adjusts its 2012 crude oil demand lower by 220 kb/d to 90 mb/d which is 1 mb higher than 2011 demand.

[Bjarne Schieldrop @BjarneSchieldro]

Read our latest Commodity monthly report: "Focus shifting to Chinese easing". The credit cycle is probably the strongest cyclical driver.

[Bjarne Schieldrop @BjarneSchieldro]

China's urban population increased by 21 million in 2011 with urban population (691) now exceeding rural population (657) for the first time

[Bjarne Schieldrop @BjarneSchieldro]

Iran’s best option may be to support Shia Muslims in Iraq => increased violence & disruption in oil production => a spike in oil prices

[Bjarne Schieldrop @BjarneSchieldro]

China fear a nuclear arms race in the Middle East (50% of its oil supply), but does not want a regime change in Iran (…http://t.co/ZUXPqVhC

[Bjarne Schieldrop @BjarneSchieldro]

China opposes sanctions against Iran. Iran's oil exports goes to: http://t.co/jNl66aLQ

[Bjarne Schieldrop @BjarneSchieldro]

EIA’ 2012 oil demand forecast down by 0.1 mb/d but still forecasted a robust oil demand growth of 1.3 mb/d in 2012 and 1.5 mb/d in 2013