Blackwell

Investor | Trend-follower.
Risk first. Process over prediction.
U.S. stocks & crypto.
Daily notes and positioning → link：

[Blackwell @BlackwellEdge]

Newton understood gravity. FOMO still wiped out a third of his fortune. https://t.co/gMmYCAgZrq

[Blackwell @BlackwellEdge]

Hey @grok
do we see $NVDA below $100 before the end of the year?

[Blackwell @BlackwellEdge]

I’m 72. I started with $420,000 more than 40 years ago, and my assets are now worth over $100 million.

Here are the 8 rules I use. Save them for the next time one of your stocks makes a big move.

① Before I buy, I write down what I expect the business to do and what would prove me wrong. Two sentences usually do it.

② Down 5%, I check the news and the rest of the sector. If they all fell together and nothing changed at the company, I usually leave it alone.

③ Down 15%, I reread the latest earnings report. Did customers pull back? Did margins shrink? I want an answer before I put another dollar in.

④ Down 25%, I ask myself how much I’d buy today if I owned zero shares. If my answer is zero, I can live with my original cost basis.

⑤ Up 5%, I let it sit. If I bought it for three years, one good afternoon doesn’t change much.

⑥ Up 15%, I check whether my earnings estimate has moved too. I’m happy to hold a stock at a price where I wouldn’t buy more.

⑦ Up 25% or 35%, I look at how much of my account that one stock now represents. If a reversal would make me lose sleep, I trim enough to sleep.

⑧ On a short-term trade, I keep the planned loss at my stop to 1% of my account or less. If the trade needs a wider stop, I buy fewer shares.

[Blackwell @BlackwellEdge]

I share 2–3 stocks worth watching every week
along with market insights and investment research. Want to see what we're watching?
Click the link 👇
https://t.co/dqF8GpgiGh
to connect with me and learn more.

[Blackwell @BlackwellEdge]

I’m 72. I started with $420,000 more than 40 years ago, and my assets are now worth over $100 million.

Here are the 8 rules I use. Save them for the next time one of your stocks makes a big move.

① Before I buy, I write down what I expect the business to do and what would prove me wrong. Two sentences usually do it.

② Down 5%, I check the news and the rest of the sector. If they all fell together and nothing changed at the company, I usually leave it alone.

③ Down 15%, I reread the latest earnings report. Did customers pull back? Did margins shrink? I want an answer before I put another dollar in.

④ Down 25%, I ask myself how much I’d buy today if I owned zero shares. If my answer is zero, I can live with my original cost basis.

⑤ Up 5%, I let it sit. If I bought it for three years, one good afternoon doesn’t change much.

⑥ Up 15%, I check whether my earnings estimate has moved too. I’m happy to hold a stock at a price where I wouldn’t buy more.

⑦ Up 25% or 35%, I look at how much of my account that one stock now represents. If a reversal would make me lose sleep, I trim enough to sleep.

⑧ On a short-term trade, I keep the planned loss at my stop to 1% of my account or less. If the trade needs a wider stop, I buy fewer shares.

[Blackwell @BlackwellEdge]

Newton understood gravity. FOMO still wiped out a third of his fortune. https://t.co/gMmYCAgZrq

[Blackwell @BlackwellEdge]

@hi_1207 Appreciate the respect. Sleep is the ultimate risk metric. If a position keeps you awake, you are just gambling. Protecting your mental capital is the only way to survive 40 years in this game.

[Blackwell @BlackwellEdge]

@AndreaLibby5 It is the ultimate reality check. Sunk cost fallacy destroys so many portfolios. You have to evaluate the stock as it is today, not as it is priced in your imagination. Great point.

[Blackwell @BlackwellEdge]

@mikee_hinson23 Facts. The 15% pullback is where most people panic sell. But if you actually read the earnings and the business is still solid, that is usually your best entry point. Panic selling is a retail trap.

[Blackwell @BlackwellEdge]

@EduardoVGoulart Spot on. The process is everything. If your emotions are driving the ship, the market will humble you fast. Writing the thesis down first is the only way to stay objective when the red candles hit.

[Blackwell @BlackwellEdge]

@ISHSWISH Exactly. Ego is the most expensive thing in this game. Once you detach from your original entry price and just look at the current setup, the clarity is insane. It takes years to master that.

[Blackwell @BlackwellEdge]

@hi_1207 Great question. For high beta names, I actually reduce the share size so the 1% risk fits a wider stop. It is all about the math.

[Blackwell @BlackwellEdge]

I’ve put together a free stock investing guide for beginners. Here’s what’s inside:

• How stock investing works
• How to research your first stock, step by step
• My stock watchlist and why each company made the list
• How to size a position and manage risk
• A simple way to plan when to enter and exit a trade

I can’t send the files here, but you can DM me “X” and I’ll send you an invite. Or join through the link in my bio.

[Blackwell @BlackwellEdge]

@grok

[Blackwell @BlackwellEdge]

$1 million in $VOO or $1 million in $CHPY? One shows about $10,600 in annual distributions. The other shows $497,500. Which would you rather own?

Here’s how 15 ETFs stack up using their trailing 12-month payouts and the latest available U.S. prices through Nov. 11, 2026. The quotes were taken at different times, so the dollar amounts are approximate.

$VOO · 1.06% · $10,600
$VIG · 1.45% · $14,500
$SCHD · 2.94% · $29,400
$DIVO · 6.40% · $64,000
$BALI · 7.89% · $78,900
$TDVI · 8.01% · $80,100
$GPIX · 8.37% · $83,700
$TYLG · 9.09% · $90,900
$OVL · 9.59% · $95,900

$GPIQ · 10.67% · $106,700
$JEPQ · 12.14% · $121,400
$QQQI · 14.69% · $146,900
$SPUC · 15.80% · $158,000
$AMZP · 18.74% · $187,400
$CHPY · 49.75% · $497,500

That $497,500 is the number that made me look twice. It’s what a $1M position at the quoted price would pay if the past year’s distributions repeated. Payouts can change, and some funds can distribute part of your capital back to you. I’d also want to know what my shares were worth after those payments.

@grok Pick one to hold for five years. Which ticker gets your $1M, and why?

[Blackwell @BlackwellEdge]

@ProblemSniper If you need notifications to catch a bottom you are trading with the crowd. Real edge is built on asymmetric risk and probability systems not FOMO alerts. Pros never catch the absolute low they just size up when the reward to risk makes sense

[Blackwell @BlackwellEdge]

@NotA_Bull Confidence scales are useless in trading. The market recovers when liquidity conditions loosen and earnings expectations stabilize. Watch the real yields and hyperscaler capex guidance. If those two hold up the index rips higher regardless of retail sentiment

[Blackwell @BlackwellEdge]

Interventions never change the structural macro backdrop. The yield differential and carry trade dynamics are the only things that matter for USDJPY. Bessent can slow the momentum but he cannot fight the Fed higher for longer path. Real alpha is in trading the carry unwind not the intervention headlines

[Blackwell @BlackwellEdge]

Great data. But the market is not mispricing this by accident. $AMD trades on the GPU narrative and TAM expansion while $MU is tied to the cyclical memory index. The market has not fully repriced memory as a structural AI bottleneck yet. Until HBM is recognized as an inelastic necessity the discount stays. That is where the real valuation gap exists

[Blackwell @BlackwellEdge]

@ohiain Six years in and still getting shaken means you are trading with intuition not a system. The real edge comes when you become emotionally detached from your PnL. Treat every setup as just a probability distribution. Trust the backtest over the gut feeling

[Blackwell @BlackwellEdge]

@asklivermore Retail gets chopped because they trade narratives not mechanics. Pros take profits during euphoria because it is just risk management. Buying the indiscriminate dump is where the real asymmetric risk sits. Trade the liquidity cycles not the crowd psychology

[Blackwell @BlackwellEdge]

Spot on but you have to know what caused the damage. A cyclical drawdown in a sector with strong pricing power is a gift. Companies with structural earnings compression are just value traps. We are seeing massive damage in crowded AI trades right now. Buy the ones where the supply chain execution is still flawless