Independent Investor | Hardcore value seeker since 2010.
Gold trader.
Long $TSLA & $NVDA since 2015.
Currently obsessed with AI and the next wave of innovation.
Broadcom’s earnings will offer another read on AI capex. The G20 summit could also bring signals on macro coordination and AI. With these catalysts converging, volatility risk is rising.
After Waller’s Jackson Hole speech, markets enter a key confirmation phase. Waller speaks on inflation September 3, followed by August Nonfarm Payrolls September 4. Both could shape September rate expectations.
AI is disrupting software’s traditional subscription model. $CRM and others are shifting toward usage and outcome-based pricing. The transition creates uncertainty but could drive future software growth.
This week’s trading environment has become tougher. Style rotation tends to create choppy and unpredictable moves, testing patience while giving back previous gains. It’s important to review the portfolio and replace names that lose key technical levels without a clear catalyst.
$AMZN is expanding AI model access through AWS GovCloud. U.S. government agencies and partners can now use Amazon Nova, along with models from OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, NVIDIA, and xAI through Amazon Bedrock, all within isolated environments built for strict security requirements.
Tensions in the Taiwan Strait are heating up again. Oil is pushing higher while gold has pulled back. After finding support around $4,400, gold is now moving between $4,430-$4,460. For now, selling into rallies remains the preferred strategy.
Waller’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech has raised expectations for a September rate hike. Still, after months of holding rates steady, bond investors remain doubtful that the Fed will actually move. That uncertainty is weighing on today’s open.
Gold is pulling back as Iran tensions ease after four straight days of gains, falling from 4690 to 4610. The 1 hour chart has turned bearish. I would rather stay patient today and wait for a clearer trend before looking for another entry.
The best setup would be NVDA, CRM, and CRWD all rising while chips, software, and cybersecurity strengthen too. That would suggest AI budgets remain healthy and spending is expanding beyond hardware into more parts of the tech market.
Core inflation is still above the 2% target, so the rate debate is not over. What would worry me most is NVDA, CRM, and CRWD all weakening together. That could mean investors are cutting exposure across tech, not just reacting to one stock.
July core PCE came in at 3.3% year over year and 0.2% month over month, both as expected. Second quarter real GDP growth stayed at 1.5% annualized. Inflation is not accelerating, and the economy is still holding up.
If NVDA delivers but AMD and MU pop early and then fade, I would read that differently. It suggests investors trust NVDA, but not the entire AI chain. For related tech names, participation matters more than a few extra points in NVDA.
The real bullish signal is not NVDA rising alone. I want to see AMD, MU, and AVGO move with it. If they do, it tells me investors still believe AI spending is spreading across the broader hardware supply chain.
NVDA earnings are the main event tonight. Even with a strong beat, I do not think all of tech automatically rallies. If NVDA weakens after hours, money could rotate into CRM and CRWD. It sounds strange, but that is exactly what I am watching.
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