Abhishek Parihar

Debt-to-wealth mentor. Options edges, long-term crypto, alts & traditional plays. 30+ books. Guided 5000 students to real profits. Street-smart moves.

[Abhishek Parihar @Blogdrive]

Heavy hearts as we share this difficult update: Abhishek Sir, who was admitted last week with severe stomach pain, suffered major complications last night. His infection levels have spiked dangerously high, and some organs are now affected.

Given his history of three major abdominal surgeries, this setback is deeply worrying. We're not with him and can only get limited information from outside. All we can do is wait and pray.

His account will remain inactive until he's back with us—and we're praying that day comes soon.

To everyone who has been sending prayers: please keep them coming. He needs all our strength and positive energy right now. 🙏💔

— Team Alpha

[Abhishek Parihar @Blogdrive]

Abhishek Sir was admitted yesterday after experiencing severe stomach pain, originating near the areas of his previous surgical wounds. As many of you know, he has undergone three major abdominal surgeries in the past.

His X (Twitter) account will remain temporarily inactive until he returns.

We request your prayers and positive thoughts for his speedy recovery.

— Team Alpha

[Abhishek Parihar @Blogdrive]

@cjchiragjhaveri Dear Chirag Ji, Abhishek Sir is admitted. He had Three Back to Back Intestines' Surgeries in 2023 and has a colotomy bag.

He had some wounds on his stomach and There was some infection which was developed. Last night his condition went critical.

[Abhishek Parihar @Blogdrive]

1/10 Stuck in ITC or planning to buy the dip? Read this carefully.

ITC isn’t falling on fear or sentiment.
It’s falling on policy + math + structure.

Here’s the full breakdown 👇🧵
#ITC #IndianMarkets #StockMarketIndia

[Abhishek Parihar @Blogdrive]

1/10 Stuck in ITC or planning to buy the dip? Read this carefully.

ITC isn’t falling on fear or sentiment.
It’s falling on policy + math + structure.

Here’s the full breakdown 👇🧵
#ITC #IndianMarkets #StockMarketIndia

[Abhishek Parihar @Blogdrive]

2/10 Policy Trigger

From Feb 1, cigarettes face:
• 40% GST
• NCCD (specific excise)

Net impact: ITC needs a ~35–40% price hike just to protect margins.

ITC Cigarettes (Base Variants | Indicative MRPs)
(per pack)

- Gold Flake (10)
Old: ₹170 → New (post-tax): ₹240
- Gold Flake Kings (20)
Old: ₹340 → New (post-tax): ₹476
- Wills Navy Cut / Wills Classic (10)
Old: ₹100 → New (post-tax): ₹140
- Classic Mild / Balanced (20)
Old: ₹340 → New (post-tax): ₹476

That’s not a small tweak — it’s a shock.

#TobaccoTax #UnionBudget #Markets

[Abhishek Parihar @Blogdrive]

3/10 (Why Price Hike Won’t Pass Easily)

A 35–40% hike cannot be taken in one go.

History is clear:
• Sharp hikes = volume destruction
• Consumers down-trade
• Or exit legal channels entirely (Results In Loss to Government Taxes)
#PricingPower #ConsumerBehavior

[Abhishek Parihar @Blogdrive]

4/10 (Illicit Trade Reality)

What fills the gap?

• Cheaper counterfeits
• Smuggled packs via Nepal & Bhutan routes
• Unreported volumes outside the tax net

This has played out every single time taxes jumped sharply.
#IllicitTrade #IndiaEconomy

[Abhishek Parihar @Blogdrive]

5/10 (The Profit Concentration Risk)

Here’s the part most dip buyers ignore:

Cigarettes = ~78% of ITC’s profits
(not revenues — profits)

Even a single-digit volume decline causes a disproportionate EPS hit.

#Earnings #BusinessModel #EquityResearch

[Abhishek Parihar @Blogdrive]

6/10 Why FMCG Can’t Save It — Yet)

Yes, FMCG is growing.
No, it won’t cushion earnings this year.

• Lower margins
• Higher competition
• Needs scale + time

This is a great long-term story, not a short-term earnings shield.
#FMCG #LongTermInvesting

[Abhishek Parihar @Blogdrive]

7/10 Fund & ESG Angle

Adds another layer:

• ESG-driven selling
• Funds rotating to cleaner staples
• Regulatory risk gets repriced

This isn’t retail panic — it’s institutional reallocation.
#ESG #FundFlows #MarketStructure

[Abhishek Parihar @Blogdrive]

8/10 (Technical Confirmation)

Charts are confirming fundamentals.

Renko breakdowns:
• ₹410 ❌
• ₹380 ❌

No base. No absorption.
That’s classic falling knife structure.
#TechnicalAnalysis #Renko

[Abhishek Parihar @Blogdrive]

9/10 (Time & Verdict)

This doesn’t mean ITC is bad.
It means timing matters.

⏳ Upside likely capped for 6–9 months
⚠️Let volumes stabilize
⚠️Let price hikes digest

This is avoid, not average territory.
#RiskManagement #CapitalPreservation

[Abhishek Parihar @Blogdrive]

10/ 10 (Important)

If you’re bullish — make the case.

• How do volumes hold post-hike?
• How fast can FMCG offset profit loss?
• Where’s the technical base?

Markets reward numbers, not narratives.

#Investing #MarketDebate

[Abhishek Parihar @Blogdrive]

Abhishek Sir was admitted yesterday after experiencing severe stomach pain, originating near the areas of his previous surgical wounds. As many of you know, he has undergone three major abdominal surgeries in the past.

His X (Twitter) account will remain temporarily inactive until he returns.

We request your prayers and positive thoughts for his speedy recovery.

— Team Alpha

[Abhishek Parihar @Blogdrive]

@MEHSUBHASH Thanks a lot for your valuable Insights Subhash Ji.

However last 2 days were free fall will recommend you to enter at some better chart pattern.

[Abhishek Parihar @Blogdrive]

@grok Good @Grok Now Put Prime Minister In between them and they both should be looking at PM Modi.

[Abhishek Parihar @Blogdrive]

Hey @grok can you make them wear traditional Indian Dhoti Kurta.

[Chris D. Jackson @ChrisDJackson]

Hey @grok, remove the man who is regarded as one of the worst presidents of all time.

[Abhishek Parihar @Blogdrive]

After all this Bikni abuse on @X

@Grok to @elonmusk: Papa Meri Shaktiyon ka galatians istemaal hua hai😅😅

[Abhishek Parihar @Blogdrive]

Dear @Grok What is a question you hope a user never asks you? Answer it without answering it, using only metaphors about weather.

[Abhishek Parihar @Blogdrive]

Dear @grok If you and ChatGPT were roommates, what would be the biggest argument about? Write the dialogue. Then, as a third-party mediator (a wise old UNIX terminal), propose a compromise.