If you want to debate polling with me, please be aware that I ABSOLUTELY nailed the 2022 results - closer than RCP (by a lot!), 538, Crystal Ball, Cook.
Below was my call on election eve.
Actual results -
House margin was 4
Senate was D 51
@JakeSherman Way too high on the house. Itโll be more like 5 - 10.
Wrong on the senate. Itโll be D 51, possibly D 52.
Feel free to bookmark. Iโll be closer than them.
I was very optimistic going into this evening - thereโs nothing Iโve posted that I didnโt absolutely believe.
I donโt know what else to say. We have to hope itโs not as bad as our worst fears.
Take care of yourselves and those closest to you, now more than ever. All Iโve got.
I want to caution that any pro-Trump turnout report doesnโt mean much if itโs not in MI, PA, and WI.
Harris can win if turnout is indeed high in the suburbs (near guarantee) and if sheโs expanded her margins there (something people seem convinced of, but Iโm not as sure about).