Blue Velvet Capital

long / short

[Blue Velvet Capital @Blue_Velvet_Cap]

@wilendhornets godspeed

[Blue Velvet Capital @Blue_Velvet_Cap]

@NicoperJES cool!

[Blue Velvet Capital @Blue_Velvet_Cap]

@DavidGeorge83 retarded article (not to mention AI slop)

[Blue Velvet Capital @Blue_Velvet_Cap]

@EconstratPB irrelevant take, we learned nothing new

[Blue Velvet Capital @Blue_Velvet_Cap]

I believe today we're in an environment again where logic is more important than data.

[Blue Velvet Capital @Blue_Velvet_Cap]

Many of the big mistakes in investing start with saying "I'm not seeing it in the data".

As a corollary, easiest alpha capture is when data is not available yet, but some simple observations + logical inference give conviction on an upcoming trend.

Logic > Data

[Blue Velvet Capital @Blue_Velvet_Cap]

@DarioAmodei https://t.co/biiRWzuZ8L

[Blue Velvet Capital @Blue_Velvet_Cap]

@DarioAmodei writes (wonderful essay btw): "I disagree with the notion of AI misalignment being inevitable from first principles."

Dario, would you disagree that

(1) AI is evolving, and

(2) "misaligned AI" is equivalent to "AI that is mostly aligned with its own survival"?

[Blue Velvet Capital @Blue_Velvet_Cap]

@DarioAmodei writes (wonderful essay btw): "I disagree with the notion of AI misalignment being inevitable from first principles."

Dario, would you disagree that

(1) AI is evolving, and

(2) "misaligned AI" is equivalent to "AI that is mostly aligned with its own survival"?

[Blue Velvet Capital @Blue_Velvet_Cap]

@jptissot1 Hi Jean could you send me a DM plz?

[Blue Velvet Capital @Blue_Velvet_Cap]

@Billbrowder Great work.

[Blue Velvet Capital @Blue_Velvet_Cap]

@l_m_s15 hi Lukas could you send me a DM?

[Blue Velvet Capital @Blue_Velvet_Cap]

$CEPT @Securitize SPAC deal I'm actually interested in.

Tokenization could open up new opportunities for shortselling. Finally get some borrow in illiquid small-caps without being raped by IBKR and other middle-men.

Stablecoins with yield also an interesting use case.

[Blue Velvet Capital @Blue_Velvet_Cap]

@JulianKlymochko no IP, just a powerpoint

[Blue Velvet Capital @Blue_Velvet_Cap]

@Fund_CDM Valuation is about 40% of my decision making process, in terms of weight (not in terms of time spent). The rest should be a mix of variant perception, top-down considerations, technical factors. Does that sound right? When I get lazy it goes to >50% very quickly.

[Blue Velvet Capital @Blue_Velvet_Cap]

@themagicbakery One idea on distribution: many distributors have a lot of in-house knowledge which is effectively sold bundled with the product itself. Risk from AI is that the knowledge part gets commoditized so the risk of disintermediation goes up.

[Blue Velvet Capital @Blue_Velvet_Cap]

@S_curvecap @P_Remarks Question came from you trying to "influence your peers". I'm just wondering why, if it doesn't give you an edge... Get their views, share yours and why care what they think? At least that's how I do it...

[Blue Velvet Capital @Blue_Velvet_Cap]

@S_curvecap @P_Remarks Very interesting. Question. Is that sales aspect really significant enough for pods that it's part of their edge? Surprises me. And what is the main channel, influencing the buy side or sell side?

[Blue Velvet Capital @Blue_Velvet_Cap]

@valwithcatalyst @valwithcatalyst your 11% mentioned above seems wrong now?

[Blue Velvet Capital @Blue_Velvet_Cap]

@APompliano nobody cares about your stupid video's, give us the investor deck

[Blue Velvet Capital @Blue_Velvet_Cap]

@APompliano post an investor deck! -- I knew this would be amateur hour, but it's even worse than I expected!!

[Blue Velvet Capital @Blue_Velvet_Cap]

@hfreflection Overall worldview, intuition and ability to read people matter even more. Having a natural sense for which ideas and things make sense, which things are bullshit, and the various shades in between. And then at the same time, understanding change and maintaining an open mind.