The CRASH is imminent! - The End of the US Real Estate cycle - 18.6 Year Cycle. 📉🏘️
The 18.6 year US real estate cycle is coming to its end. This cycle has played out over 200 years and will most likely continue, as that is what cycles do, until one day they break. There will be a point in time when this cycle will no longer play out as anticipated. But so far the market has proven it is something to follow.
🏛️The housing market, or what it actually is, the land market, is what drives the global economy. The real estate market value is close to 400 trillion US dollars. Almost 4 times more than the second largest asset in the world, which is oil at around 110 trillion. When the real estate market goes down in value, people take less risk as their safe haven no longer increases in value. There are a lot of reasons why the real estate cycle is ending, not only based on the 18.6 year cycle. If you take a look at Nonfarm Payrolls you can see that the job market is starting to slow down. Jobs are still being created, but not at the same pace as before, and that shift is important. The real estate market depends heavily on people having stable income. When payrolls start rolling over, even slightly, it means fewer people can afford homes, and eventually that pressure builds up.
📈At the same time, the US10Y has been high, and it is looking like it wants to go higher from here. This directly impacts mortgage rates. When the 10 year yield goes up, borrowing money becomes more expensive, which means monthly payments on houses increase a lot. Even if prices stay the same, fewer people can afford to buy. This slowly drains demand from the market.
Another thing that has grown a lot in recent years is the Private Credit Market. This is basically lending happening outside of traditional banks. It has been a way to keep money flowing into the system, especially into businesses and real estate. The problem is that a lot of this debt is tied to higher interest rates today. If companies or property owners can’t refinance or handle the higher costs, it can lead to stress, defaults, and forced selling. It doesn’t always break instantly, but it adds pressure under the surface.
In the final phase of the 18.6 year cycle, things usually don’t just collapse right away. First, you often see a push higher in certain areas. Commodities start to move, inflation picks up, and assets like oil tend to spike late. That’s often one of the last signals before things turn. We are already seeing parts of this with agriculture starting to move, which likely reflects rising inflation pressures.
After that phase, the pressure starts to show more clearly. Housing activity slows, jobs weaken, and debt becomes harder to manage. Then eventually, the market rolls over. Not always all at once, but in a sequence.
💸When the real estate cycle ends, there is almost no asset that won’t go down. There is no safe haven. Not gold, not silver, not Bitcoin. Everything tends to sell off hard, at least in the initial phase. The dollar will most likely be the best place to sit. The narrative will likely be that you should move into gold during a recession. It might also be that wars have ended and that there is nothing to worry about anymore. Don’t fall for it.
That’s why this phase is important. It’s not just about prices going up or down, it’s about understanding what is happening underneath the surface.
📊It is important to point out that when the real estate market tops, the stock market usually tops around 1 year after. Keep in mind this does not have to play out the exact same way, but if it does, we might see a stock market top around October this year. It could also be the case that we have already topped. It is incredibly hard to know where the top will be, and no one can predict it.
If the top is not in, I expect a strong rally that will be aggressive and volatile. When will this happen? To begin with, I think we get a bounce from current levels. We might go down a few percentages more, but not much more than that. Then we get a rally for a few weeks. Whether this turns into a larger rally, I don’t know yet. To me, it is more likely that we rally for a few weeks, then top out and continue down. Sometime during June or late summer, we could start the bigger rally, if the larger top is not already in.
📌Anyhow, the markets have been going up for many years. You can see that almost every index has made gains of 50–100% over the past few years. I have been a strong bull since 2022 and became more cautious in 2025. Now I am definitely leaning more bearish, as almost everything from the ending phase of the 18.6 year cycle has played out.
In the end, regardless of how this last rally (if we get one) plays out, I think the market is very likely to go down over the coming years. Yes, years. I don’t expect a huge catastrophic drop any time soon. I think that will occur later, more likely 2027–2028. I think the stock market could find a bottom around 2029. There will be volatile periods, sideways periods, and bear market rallies along the way.
🎯The downside targets are based on historical drawdowns, where the average is around 50% from the top. Sometimes less, sometimes more. It is also based on areas where a lot of volume has taken place, along with Fibonacci and VPVR levels. Of course, these targets do not have to be met, and they do not need to happen exactly in January 2029 either. But it is my estimate of where things could be heading.
💰When we get closer, you can start to DCA in. But until then, I don’t see a reason to do so.
Regarding Bitcoin, and its 4 year cycle, I do think it is possible that it bottoms earlier than expected. It is supposed to bottom in October this year, but since many people expect this, I think it could happen earlier. I also think we may not see a new ATH from that low. If the short-term rally becomes extreme, it could still happen, but most likely not.
So what am I saying? I don’t think Bitcoin will see a new ATH until much later, maybe 2029–2030. Whether it will ever see a new ATH again is also a question, and only time will tell.
I am still very bullish on other blockchains like ETH, SOL, and other protocols. But these will most likely not see new ATHs for several years.
What most people have learned over the last 15 years is to DCA into the S&P 500, funds, or ETFs. This has worked for a long time and will likely continue to work over the long term. But if you expect to be in profit within 5 years by DCA’ing every dip from here, I am not sure that will be the best approach.
There will always be people saying “buy the dip” and “buy the fear”. And yes, it has worked many times. But sometimes, it’s better to wait. That’s at least how I see it.
⌛️Things almost always take longer to play out than expected.
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#crash #realestate #sp500 #btc #nasdaq #macro
As you know Sentiment is the biggest indicator of bottoms or tops. That is my Nr 1 indicator to follow. When Bitcoin was at 82k I said that we was most likely going to go down and after the fall we should see what the sentiment says.
If you look at the poll I made yesterday the majority, 77% believe that the bear market bottom for crypto is NOT in yet. As a contrarian this tells me the likeliness of the bottom to be in is quite high.
Target have been 50k for many months now. But as we can see the sentiment is starting to shift from bull to bear.
Based on the poll above there are two scenarios I can see.
Either the crypto market bottoms around here and starts its new cycle OR We will drop way lower than people anticipate. I have seen alot of targets around 50k lately. So if we continue the bear market then I do think we will go lower. Possible 40-45k.
We have to wait and see what the market does. Its possible we also get another leg down to scare investors. We was recently at 59k and I expected a rally up to around 65k due to RSI being HEAVILY oversold on Bitcoins Daily chart. Now when we had that rally its possible we see another test of 59k.
Time will tell. But poll suggests that bottom CAN be in.
Poll in:
https://t.co/MR8pGmdSuh
#bitcoin #crypto #bear #bottom bitcoin:native
As you know Sentiment is the biggest indicator of bottoms or tops. That is my Nr 1 indicator to follow. When Bitcoin was at 82k I said that we was most likely going to go down and after the fall we should see what the sentiment says.
If you look at the poll I made yesterday the majority, 77% believe that the bear market bottom for crypto is NOT in yet. As a contrarian this tells me the likeliness of the bottom to be in is quite high.
Target have been 50k for many months now. But as we can see the sentiment is starting to shift from bull to bear.
Based on the poll above there are two scenarios I can see.
Either the crypto market bottoms around here and starts its new cycle OR We will drop way lower than people anticipate. I have seen alot of targets around 50k lately. So if we continue the bear market then I do think we will go lower. Possible 40-45k.
We have to wait and see what the market does. Its possible we also get another leg down to scare investors. We was recently at 59k and I expected a rally up to around 65k due to RSI being HEAVILY oversold on Bitcoins Daily chart. Now when we had that rally its possible we see another test of 59k.
Time will tell. But poll suggests that bottom CAN be in.
Poll in:
https://t.co/MR8pGmdSuh
#bitcoin #crypto #bear #bottom bitcoin:native
With that said. Bounce from here is imminent. 60k ish, where? 65k+? bitcoin:native
Then we see what happens next.
Most likely more downside. But let the chart do what it does. We can easily make a double bottom here and go up more aswell. We have to read what we have infront of us to try to guess the next steps.
60k to 80k target done.
82k down done.
50k been the next target but before that can be true I want a bounce from here first. That bounce should show you if we have good support here or not. The chart will give you the info and show the strength of the bounce. If you have alot of volume on the bounce and can clearly break above 65k and close above it. Expect more upside. If not, Expect 50k
#bitcoin #crypto
A bounce for bitcoin:native here from 60k ish is imminent. Bitcoin have only been this oversold on the daily RSI 2 times before.
2018 it went up 30% and then went lower.
2020 Corona crash it bottomed at 4k and went to 69k 2021.
So buying bitcoin here is wise. But where to sell? That will the chart tell you. Can bitcoin break above and hold 65k? Then you have a more clear sign of a double bottom. If it rejects then you have bigger troubles.
But first. Up.
Also alot of alts are heavily oversold. Some of them are as oversold as they have ever been on the daily RSI. For example dogecoin:native
This doesnt mean that the bear market is over, It could be. But you could get a bounce and then drop lower for more likely a final bottom. The charts will give you the info and I will update you where we are and what I do think comes next.
The accuracy of the 82k top for bitcoin is actually impressive. Sometimes we nail it sometimes not. But this was a really good call. Now back to the diagonal support.
History says 50k next. What do you think?
bitcoin:native #bitcoin#crypto
Bears have now become bulls, Bitcoin have reached out 80k target we put out when #Bitcoin was bottoming months ago.
I think it is possible to see a touch of the daily 200 MA, This is something that Bitcoin have tested in every single bear market.
You can see the bearish divergences on the daily chart compared to RSI, You can also see the overall structure which is a ascending channel, this is bearish in general.
As I always say, dont do leverage. Buy or sell spot. 50k $BTC is still the target.
Buffett/Berkshire has been hoarding cash for years — now a record ~$397B pile.
Missed huge market gains while sitting in T-bills.
Still net sellers overall, yet buying AI stocks at ATH as BRK stock shows clear relative weakness and lags the S&P badly.
Just saying… the top might be closer than most want to admit.
Im not calling the stockmarket top, but its surely getting closer, 2026-2027 should mark the top for many years on the stockmarket.
#stocks #google #nvidia #ai #ath #crypto $GOOG $BRK.A
200 Daily MA tested and rejected for $BTC.
All targets hittted.
Chance of downside is higher than upside.
Lets see how this all plays out. But according to my analysis we are still in a bear market and the bear market bounce have just been completed.
@ChristianSotoNJ@jasonpizzino You're full of shit, Usually Daily MA 200 get tested in the bear market bounce. And it havent been tested yet, 800 points away, After it have been tested its time for downside.
With that said, And how I believe the markets eventually will roll over to set a new bottom to start the new cycle. It is crucial to always be active. If you are in my lounge Night Owls you should be positioned in both OG Asteroid and SPCX by now. How they will perform is always up to the market. But I do believe these two narratives can become a huge success. You already seeing it on the OG Asteroid. There are other projects that are also interesting in the market. You can also see utility havent had a run at all. If it comes now or later I let be ontouched but it will definetly come.
Just because BTC corrects doesnt mean that you cant be active and you cant hold projects. As no one can see the future it is always good to be exposed. Thats up to everyone on their own. Im not putting out updates how I see the market for others to dump their bags and try to buy the bottoms. I analyze markets overall to have a better view of what could come or not come. Ive been wrong many times, and been right even often. But what is most important, especially in crypto is to be active and research and connect.
There are is always opportunity, every single day. Most of the time the opportunity is not as good as other times. Therefore its better to not buy everything you see, but to observe and try to understand the market and what narratvies might be hot. You dont have to buy stuff daily. You can buy stuff once a week and still have a huge success. Everything comes down to experience.
I like to buy into narratives before they are even relevant. I can buy into narratives that are not hot, but I expect them to be 6 months later. Sometimes im right, Sometimes im wrong. But this is the strategy I like the most. Also buying into OG tickers on mostly ETH is very important, As I do see these to flourish in the future. Especially if ETH remains relevant the next coming 10 years. I do think that OG memes will perform extremely good and will be extremely attractive.
Possible price target for bitcoin the coming months.
$45,000-50,000 per BTC seems like a good price target to reach and how we reach down there we will see. Further down or bottom for the bear market? We will see how the stock market look at that point aswell as sentiment if we reach that area.
When the war started everyone was panicking, We was bullish, not due to the news but due to the overall sentiment + what the chart looked like. Now we do the inverse. As bears become bulls its very likely the bearmarket bounce is done here. But we all know that bear market rallies can be extreme, So we never know if we will make a fake out above the current trendline above us. Time will always tell. But I can definetly see it playing out like this.
Good luck and have fun trading.