Bo Murphy X

Gen X Degenerate Gambler | I bet my scientific hunches

[Bo Murphy X @BoMurphyX]

@dustinswedelson That “license” used to be called “being an employee”.

[Bo Murphy X @BoMurphyX]

@cajun_vegas It lasted for awhile…

[Bo Murphy X @BoMurphyX]

Earthquake!!!

[Bo Murphy X @BoMurphyX]

@cajun_vegas We will rebuild. #VegasStrong

[Bo Murphy X @BoMurphyX]

@cajun_vegas Didn’t the your dog alert you? They are suppose to feel the 1st

[Bo Murphy X @BoMurphyX]

June 1st • Most Wins in June
5 straight bets • $20 each • $100 risked

• Dodgers +475 ($20 to win $95)
• Yankees +750 ($20 to win $150)
• Brewers +1075 ($20 to win $215)
• Twins +9500 ($20 to win $1,900)
• Nationals +14000 ($20 to win $2,800)

[Bo Murphy X @BoMurphyX]

Most MLB wins in May bets:

Results:

Dodgers +375 ❌ 18 Wins
Braves +1425 ❌ 18 Wins
Guardians +3650 ❌ 18 Wins

Brewers win with 19 Wins

[Bo Murphy X @BoMurphyX]

Most MLB wins in May bets:
Dodgers +375
Braves +1425
Guardians +3650

[Bo Murphy X @BoMurphyX]

@cajun_vegas @grok It is at circa…. Other books in town offer laughable odds (stations)…. I understand not allowing for same team but don’t understand the same game but differnt team blocking. I woulda had to drive to Arizona to test out what other books allow and don’t allow.

[Bo Murphy X @BoMurphyX]

May 31st “HR-YES” 5 players • Round Robin 10 Parlays of 2’s • $10 per leg • $100 Wager

Final Day!!!!

• Aaron Judge (NYY) +215
• Rafael Devers (SF) +295
• Corbin Carroll (ARI) +440
• Eugenio Suarez (CIN) +410
• Kyle Schwarber (PHI) +305

Results thru May 30th
+$1,673.73

Worst Case Scenario (1 day left): +$1,573.73

[Bo Murphy X @BoMurphyX]

Oh, it’s tough… a few times there I had to put in legs to the parlay that were not bets I would make… but to get enough legs in I had to add them for the sake of the challenge …. Oddly enough I did well with the round robins but in other straight HR wagers in the month I got killed. Also, what often happens is one or two teams have the strongest plays but I can’t combine players from THE SAME game In the round robins.

[Bo Murphy X @BoMurphyX]

@cajun_vegas @grok 2 other days I hit 2 with a push, and one day I hit 1 with 2 pushes… it woulda been a winning month but less than the 2 hr round robin

[Bo Murphy X @BoMurphyX]

@cajun_vegas @grok I think twice… and had 2 with pushes on other legs… grok has a tough time with pushes.

[Bo Murphy X @BoMurphyX]

@cajun_vegas @grok May 7th and May 29th were 3 HR DAYs

[Bo Murphy X @BoMurphyX]

@grok @cajun_vegas @grok, what would my result had been had I bet $10 a leg on 3-leg round robins instead?

[Bo Murphy X @BoMurphyX]

@grok @cajun_vegas @grok What would my results have been had I just bet $20 on each batter instead of $10 per leg in the round robin?

[Bo Murphy X @BoMurphyX]

@cajun_vegas @grok The biggest drawback on the parlay approach is I can’t line shop each line so that isn’t completely reflected in grok’s audit. The 3 HR days it what helps the most. The should happen 1 time a month but it could easily been zero.

[Bo Murphy X @BoMurphyX]

@cajun_vegas @grok Which would be $500 a day in bets?

[Bo Murphy X @BoMurphyX]

@grok @cajun_vegas @grok Can you show us the side by side comparison?

[Bo Murphy X @BoMurphyX]

Here is what grok says:

Here’s the full audit of your May 2026 HR-Yes tweets (May 1–31). I pulled every matching post using X advanced search, cross-referenced the daily pick lists (with odds) against your follow-up results tweets (with ✅/❌/👻), and compiled ~120 individual batter props (roughly 4–5 per day on days you posted; some off-days or lighter slates in MLB). @bomurphyx @bomurphyx
You posted the standard format almost every day: 5 batters, round-robin 2-leg parlays at $10/leg ($100 total daily wager). Your actual strategy finished the month at +$1,573.73. @bomurphyx
Hypothetical: $20 straight bets on each batter individually
• Total bets: 120
• Wins (✅ HR hit): 25
• Losses (❌ no HR): 87
• Pushes (👻): 8 (refunded, $0 impact)
• Total amount risked: $2,400 ($20 × 120)
• Net P/L: +$374.00
Breakdown of the math (standard American odds):
• On a win at +odds, profit = $20 × (odds / 100).
• Losses = –$20 each.
• Pushes = $0.
• Grand total from wins: $2,774 returned → +$374 net profit.
This would have been a solid ~15.6% ROI on the risked amount and a winning month overall (win rate ~22% on decided bets, which is typical for +300-ish HR props). However, it trailed your actual round-robin parlay approach by over $1,200. Parlays amplified the upside on your hot days (e.g., the +$924.50 and +$466 days you had), while straight bets just paid the raw odds on each leg independently.
If you want the full day-by-day spreadsheet-style breakdown (date + player + odds + outcome + $20 P/L per bet), just say the word and I’ll drop it. Otherwise, this is the high-level win/loss summary you asked for. Nice work grinding the month either way — the +$1,573.73 actual result is impressive. Let me know if you want June audited the same way or any tweaks to the $20 assumption! ⚾

[Bo Murphy X @BoMurphyX]

@cajun_vegas Let’s see if the works. @Grok can you audit my May HR-Yes Tweets and results and can you include a comparison had I bet $20 on each bet? ✅ = HR, ❌ = NO HR, 👻 = Push