Boagweus | Trader of No-Mind

Charts are koans. Profits are illusions.

[Boagweus | Trader of No-Mind @Boagweus]

The Zen Trader Manifesto

The Market is the Master.
I do not predict.
I do not fight.
Price is the dance.
Charts are koans.
Boagweus is just a name.

[CJ @IntlSpeculator]

The longer term your approach, the less need there is for precision in execution.

Precision is something I realized after many years is an added hurdle for me to climb that I'm not naturally good at.

Sure, buying on a 1m chart and being up 12R in a day is great. Dopamine flowing.

The problem for me is the endless assault of market fuckery and the risk of getting psychologically mauled by a string of mistakes etc.

Not everyone's got what it takes to play that game, and that is something I struggled to accept.

Now I try to embrace my strengths instead which is being patient and picking the best stocks/assets.

Thus the game has changed from having to be there at the open and frantically trying to get the best entry possible to max out size.

To now zooming out and making strategic buys in order to build up positions to ride for many months or more.

Attaching a random weekly chart of a TML. These types of moves can play out for a year or more, offering many buypoints along the way.

[Linda Raschke @LindaRaschke]

SPs tested both Globex lows and AND Globex highs today. My friend calls this a "double dinger". Yellow dots are NYSE opening. Bit of play around PDH...

[Linda Raschke @LindaRaschke]

Initial target met overnight. Will the market retest down in the US session? Globex prices are tested better than 92% of the time, (either high or low.)

[Linda Raschke @LindaRaschke]

Gold: structure implies gold should give everything its got to the upside today (white dot)...which may or may not be much...! (i.e. see prior "white dot")

[R. Patrick Kent (RPK) @RPKent]

Quad 1 day yesterday in a Quad 4 month on a collapse in volume...

[Linda Raschke @LindaRaschke]

SP pit session: Since the initial Buy Day technicals unfolded overnight, this s where Taylor would say, "Buy Day Highs Made First" - wait to buy a higher low, and an early short trade could have also been made since the market was up so much.

[Linda Raschke @LindaRaschke]

Look how perfect this "cave-fill" repair was on Nov Beans.

[Lance Breitstein 🇺🇸🌎 @TheOneLanceB]

To me, this was the far more likely outcome versus a dividend cut, given the cash reserve + need for the co to keep easy access to the debt market.

On Friday’s call w the @smbcapital interns, I showed them how you can stress-test your views using Claude or ChatGPT. Probabilities favored the trade and even if divy cut, price was cushioning you as well.

Fundamental view + technical setup + AI assistance = one good trade.

[Larry Cheng @larryvc]

GameStop Provides Fiscal Year 2026 Outlook:

https://t.co/zirktLK0vs

[Linda Raschke @LindaRaschke]

Beans: Sell Short day kicked in overnight and it ate the tail. Many times the "play for the day" starts Sunday night and Monday morning is a consolidating rhythmn.

[Mike Bellafiore @MikeBellafiore]

"Every independent market participant must map out their own unique boundaries for what qualifies as an A+ setup." 👇👊

[Mike Bellafiore @MikeBellafiore]

The way to get better while developing as a trader is:
a) make trading easier
b) simulate real-time conditions
c) make trading harder

a) Make trading easier: Break down the components of a successful trade. For example, work on improving stock selection during an AM meeting.

b) Simulate real-time conditions: Playback a trade with real-time speed and make a trade decision. Get more reps.

c) Make trading harder: Be placed in a hot seat and challenged to support a trade decision. Make practice harder than market sessions.

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

Like a lot of big themes what tops such a space is an extended churning which looks like another breakout but actually is a full sell into buy orders used as liquidity for an exit.

The dotcom bubble had many -15% to -30% drawdowns along the way to its top.

I think the AI bubble can continue into the end of the decade but for now I think a correction is due.

Especially the leveraged ETFs have been able to detach fully via $SOXL $KORU and alike as the move was so fast even decay couldn't touch it.

I think those will end up fading double as hard through the extended time we will need to work off the massive leverage in the space.

Pause for now and I could be wrong and cut the thesis quickly if wrong, but things are aligning for now.

Best of world would be an AI crash of about -20 to -30%, healthy rotation into ex-AI and Energy, Q4 bottom and we enter the 98-00 period into 2028 with a massive revival in the space.

[Linda Raschke @LindaRaschke]

Nightly homework and preparation: the areas I show are easily noted the night before. I have them marked off on charts for each market. Hard to trade if you are doing your analysis on the fly when instead you should be concentrating on your game plan, stalking and managing.

[Linda Raschke @LindaRaschke]

COPPER: This is the structure we like to see at the end of a daily downswing: Failure test" = higher low, the "U-turn" take out last pivot.

[Linda Raschke @LindaRaschke]

and look what is still at the top of the RS list...! Cocoa. Momentum begets momentum when in a positive feedback loop!

[Linda Raschke @LindaRaschke]

Gold weeklies: It's minor problematic that the last downswing was greater than the previous downswing. This makes it less likely that GC will put in a V bottom as well. 4077 is the 120 minute EMA, and that might be the play for now.

[Linda Raschke @LindaRaschke]

Silver: climax bar with close outside KC...different than the gold in that it made new momentum lows on this last swing down. However, silver has been known to "V"...

[0xDipper @Dipper_pol]

Benoit Mandelbrot, the father of fractal geometry:

a 10-sigma market crash has odds of roughly 1 in Avogadro's number. by the Gaussian math taught in every business school, it simply can't happen.

"It should never happen. It happens every day, somewhere, to somebody."

October '87? a 23-sigma day. and 10-sigma moves, he says, are "all over the place."

his verdict on the Gaussian risk model taught in every business school: "sheer idiocy."

~70-min lecture, free. the mathematician Taleb calls his master, on why markets break the math ↓

[Linda Raschke @LindaRaschke]

Oh Oh....they are buying CPB! Never a good sign for the markets! (one of the lowest correlations to the indexes...)