@BenBrey Tariffs are a tax. They raise the prices of targeted imports at the border; broad macro effects depend on how much they slow demand. At best, they’re price-up, growth-down, which can net to disinflation only if demand destruction dominates.
@dampedspring Ahh, I don't know your book, but I guess you're betting on more rate cuts rather than fewer. I didn't bet that way, but I suspect you're right.
@dampedspring I should add I don't really have an opinion of, or hold any position in long-term bonds. OTOH, I have a fairly substantial position in short-term treasuries.
@dampedspring For risk assets. For the economy, I think we're sliding, but I don't expect that to be reflected in markets until next year. Just a disagreement on timing.
@martypartymusic@CNBC Funny how he was against bitcoin in your portfolio until BlackRock started IBIT. Now he thinks you should invest in it. Coincidence?
@NikLentz Keep cool. Andy has had a lot of losers of late after a hot streak. If you understand these things better, you understand it's just reversion to the mean, the Sports Illustrated jinx.
@JosephPolitano ChatGPT's analysis "policy analysts estimate that the proposed Medicaid cuts could result in hundreds of avoidable deaths annually in many congressional districts, with the total number potentially reaching into the tens of thousands nationwide .americanprogress.org"
@DsrPrivate Thanks, Andy. Good, well-reasoned analysis. It may just be me, but the Jekyll & Hyde analogy does not work for me. I always have to go back and figure out which is which.