Bobby

[Bobby @Bobby_11F]

@meursault511995 @realroseceline When you put it like this, seems like an even better business than it is!!

[Bobby @Bobby_11F]

@LogicalThesis Being right in size is all that matters 👌

[Bobby @Bobby_11F]

@seper8tor Lovely 🙏

[Bobby @Bobby_11F]

@realroseceline Agreed

[Bobby @Bobby_11F]

@Mr_Derivatives Is the double bottom TOO obvious now? 🤔

[Bobby @Bobby_11F]

@realroseceline Tying this into the $nbis durability question you posed has me rethinking the AI trade. I think $nbis new partner model differentiates them a bit bc of their software stack. But as you said, is it durable long term once hyperscalers have tons of add’l compute via their own DCs?

[Bobby @Bobby_11F]

@realroseceline Love your writing - are you actually working on a book? Would love to read it 🙏

[Bobby @Bobby_11F]

@jsim323 Sure DCF is fine, but they don’t really differ in length as both have been signing 15 year contracts, start dates may differ slightly which impacts DCF. NOI is going to be very similar as well as both are NNN leases, so there’s not much differentiation at all between the two.

[Bobby @Bobby_11F]

Market, Goldman specifically, currently ascribing ZERO value to $GLXY approved & unsigned 830mw

If you apply Goldman’s same value per signed dollar of revenue to Galaxy & their additional 830mw of power as they did for $HUT price target, you get Galaxy share price of $89

[Jonah Lupton @JonahLupton]

Morgan Stanley put out a really great 58-page report this morning as they began covering $APLD, $HUT and $RIOT.

They started $APLD at equal weight with $36.50 price target, implying 21% upside.

They started $RIOT at overweight with $36 price target, implying +53% upside

They started $HUT at overweight with $263 price target, suggesting 141% upside.

MS says their bull case price target for $HUT is $320 which implies 194% upside from yesterday's close.

Three other names mentioned in the report are $WULF, $CIFR and $GLXY.

$WULF price target implies 262% upside
$CIFR price target implies 105% upside
$GLXY price target implies 46% upside

MS is calling these companies "PSPs" which stands for Powered Shell Providers.

Obviously I can't share the full report but I want to highlight a few paragraphs...

What are the key drivers of our bullish stance with respect to these Powered Shell Providers?
(1) The magnitude of improvement in AI capabilities will continue to increase at a non-linear rate;
(2) the value creation for both AI Adopters and AI Enablers is high (with attractive ROIC for AI-related capex);
(3) the demand for compute is likely to be systematically much higher than the supply, with the result that
(4) the economic incentives (like powered shell leases) to eliminate key bottlenecks to the growth of compute will grow;
(5) in the US and Europe, data center (DC) developers face a significant power access bottleneck—especially with recent state-level moratoriums;
(6) Bitcoin-to-DC conversions represent the most attractive "time to power" option for DC developers; and
(7) even if data center developers secure all large US and European Bitcoin company power access, they would still be, in our view, short access to power.

We are seeing signs of increasing willingness among key AI players to pay higher "time to power" in the form of increasingly rich economics to powered shell providers for using their power access to serve DC developers.

In March, we introduced our 15/15/15 framework; the conviction that future powered shell deals would appear with terms of 15 year leases, 15% yields on capex, and $15/watt of equity value creation. Recent deals—like those by $HUT this week and $WULF earlier this month—exceeded our expectations, with terms of 15 years, 17% yield, and $17/watt for the former and 20 years, 18% yield and $19/watt of equity value creation for the latter.

Importantly, we expect future terms for $HUT and $RIOT close to those in the $WULF and $HUT deals, reflecting the strong past precedent and consistency of the former and the strength of sites for $RIOT. In our evaluation of $APLD, we lower our expectations on terms to approximately $10/watt, significantly below our 15/15/15 framework but aligned with $APLD's existing deal terms. If we see evidence that $APLD can replicate terms closer to recent $HUT, $CIFR, or $WULF deals, we would expect to increase our valuations of these stocks accordingly.

That's all I can share for now.

If you can get your hands on this report, I would highly suggest doing so. It's one of the better sell side reports I've seen this year on the DCs/HPCs/PSPs.

NFA.
DYOR.
*We are long $RIOT $CIFR $HUT $WULF at @FirstWaveFund
**Our favorite DC/NC name is still $NBIS

[Bobby @Bobby_11F]

@jsim323 No they did not. But how would you like to value them? That’s a very direct apples to apples way of comparing which company is over or under valued. Same type of assets (data center shell), same end product (MW), same customers (hyperscalers), similar margin profile, etc etc etc

[Bobby @Bobby_11F]

***Morgan Stanley NOT Goldman…apologies…just used to Goldman 💩 on $glxy 😂

[Bobby @Bobby_11F]

@NicolasFlamelX

[Bobby @Bobby_11F]

@RJCcapital If power is the bottleneck, & $NBIS sees these former bitcoin miners with capacity but zero software stack to deploy, why wouldn’t they add this to their offerings? Not saying it’s outrageously bullish but pretty dumb to think expanding the business model & offerings ISNT bullish

[Bobby @Bobby_11F]

@colintrades1 @NicolasFlamelX Easy to make this claim when there’s 2 hours left in the trading week until 4th of July which is less than 2 days away 😂 of course it won’t be announced by July 4th

[Bobby @Bobby_11F]

@SayNoToTrading @StonkChris Good point

[Bobby @Bobby_11F]

@CitronResearch Nope - @CorneliaLake was discussing this in detail in October 2024 👍

[Bobby @Bobby_11F]

“Delivering both - 1.6GW, on schedule” ….

Is @galaxyhq inferring that the additional ~800mw is moving along, or signed??? 🤔

@duncanreucassel
@NicolasFlamelX
@Pentosh1
@cantonmeow

[Galaxy @galaxyhq]

Compute capacity and the runway to build it is increasingly scarce. Helios, our AI data center in West Texas, is delivering both — 1.6GW, on schedule.

[Bobby @Bobby_11F]

@3a4_Gorilla When is that statement from? Last earnings?

[Bobby @Bobby_11F]

@Sandeman52 I do the same, all on my phone. I think smaller the time frame you’re trading, the more screens/tvs needed. Need info and data quicker. Less positions/longer time frames are much easier to manage like your case (and mine)