Brent premium for prompt delivery is surging.
It's up 22% today.
In just one month, it went from -$0.50 to +$12.46/bbl.
This move is absolutely unprecedented.
It's not just refined products... The physical oil market is extremely tight.
๐จ๐ข๏ธThe DOE just redefined the SPR's floor.
Not 250 to 300 million barrels, the level industry has always treated as the practical limit.
Now it says the true cavern mechanics floor is roughly 70 million, tripling the theoretical emergency cushion to about 246 million barrels.
The reserve is at 311.4 million, the lowest since 1983, after shedding more than 104 million barrels since February.
Here is the problem with the new math.
A July GAO audit found the SPR can only draw down at 61% of its intended rate and refill at 56%, after a delayed 1.4 billion dollar overhaul.
The agency's own words: operational capability to meet mission demands is at risk.
Whatever the caverns theoretically hold, the pumps move it at barely half design speed.
The floor matters less than the flow.
source @MarioNawfal