NFL Stepped Up Boost
0.01 U
Fair value +457663
Steelers ML vs Bengals
Seahawks Commanders Under 40.5
Colts ML vs Texans
Browns ML vs Panthers
Patriots Jaguars Over 45.5
Bills -7 vs Chargers
Chiefs Dolphins Under 45.5
Raiders ML vs Saints
Broncos ML vs Rams
Titans ML vs Giants
Vikings Buccaneers Under 42.5
CFB Saturday 50% AP Boost
0.05 U
Fair value +72055
Wyoming ML vs Hawaii
Ole Miss +4 vs Florida
Iowa State ML vs Utah
Oklahoma State ML vs West Virginia
Missouri ML vs Mississippi State
Stanford ML vs Georgia Tech
Nevada ML vs Air Force
CFB 50% Parlay Boost
0.1 U
Fair value +35690
San Diego State ML vs Toledo
Wyoming ML vs Hawaii
Cincinnati ML vs Kansas State
Missouri ML vs Mississippi State
Stanford ML vs Georgia Tech
Nevada ML vs Air Force
It’s really this simple.
It’s not about who you think will win the game. It’s about the value you’re getting on the bet.
If your bet has a 1/3 chance of cashing, you’re looking at +200 as a fair price.
If a sportsbook is offering you +300, that’s a massive edge.
I don’t care that the bet will only win 33 times out of 100. You only need it to win 25 times out of 100 to break even.
Bet it 100 times at +300 and have it cash 33 times:
33 wins × 3 units = +99 units
67 losses × 1 unit = -67 units
+32 units
Obviously, this example is extreme because you’re rarely going to find that much +EV on a bet.
But that’s the point. You’re not betting on who you think will win. You’re betting on whether the number you’re getting is good enough.
One of the biggest mistakes bettors make.
They ask:
“Who is going to win?”
Instead, ask:
“Is the price being offered better than the probability of the outcome?”
That small change in thinking completely changes how you approach sports betting.
CFB Friday 50% SGP Boost
1 U
Fair value +896
Temple ML vs Army
Under 51.5 points Navy vs UAB
Clemson ML vs California
Under 32.5 California Team Total
We hit big on CFB last weekend let’s see if we can do it again
WILD TREND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL 🤯
Teams on a short week and off an OT game, like Green Bay, are 5-27 ATS (15.6%)
If they’re also a single digit favorite, they’re 0-15 ATS
@CalSportsLV
Florida -4.5
There’s a difference between college and NFL. Cooper Rush may be the better NFL QB but Chambliss would almost certainly be the better college QB right now
Question of the day
Florida is -3 right now vs Ole Miss and Trinidad Chambliss
What would this line be if Ole Miss were starting Cooper Rush at QB?
I know my answer but I need feedback now
𝐍𝐅𝐋 𝐒𝐮𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐯𝐨𝐫 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤 𝟑 𝐏𝐢𝐜𝐤𝐬 𝐈’𝐦 𝐂𝐨��𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠
𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐞𝐟𝐬 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐃𝐨𝐥𝐩𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐬 (𝟖𝟓%) - It would be shocking to see the Chiefs go down this week. The Dolphins are a team I will likely be targeting all year in Survivor
𝐒𝐞𝐚𝐡𝐚𝐰𝐤𝐬 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬 (𝟕𝟒%) - I’m fading the Commanders this week who will be led by Marcus Mariota and will have to find a way to put up points against a good Seahawks D
𝐋𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐉𝐞𝐭𝐬 (𝟕𝟐%) - The Lions have been unimpressive, but this spot is good. A home game after a long week off after TNF. Jets were just in an OT dogfight with Green Bay
𝐒𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐑𝐚𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬 (𝟔𝟎%) - We’ll see if I muster enough courage to take the Saints here who will be very low owned and a chance to get leverage on the field