Boss1986

[Alexander Whedon @alex_whedon]

We've partnered with Appen to evaluate the benchmarks we published last week.

Results are in and we've actually improved across the board.

Link below to the full report.

[Alexander Whedon @alex_whedon]

Introducing SubQ - a major breakthrough in LLM intelligence.

It is the first model built on a fully sub-quadratic sparse-attention architecture (SSA),

And the first frontier model with a 12 million token context window which is:

- 52x faster than FlashAttention at 1MM tokens
- Less than 5% the cost of Opus

Transformer-based LLMs waste compute by processing every possible relationship between words (standard attention).

Only a small fraction actually matter.

@subquadratic finds and focuses only on the ones that do.

That's nearly 1,000x less compute and a new way for LLMs to scale.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

U.S. WORKERS MORE STRUGGLING THAN THRIVING

For the first time since Gallup began tracking, 49% of U.S. workers report struggling in life, while only 46% say they’re thriving. This reverses 2022–2023 trends, when a majority were thriving, highlighting a steady post-pandemic decline in workforce well-being.

[Arthur @adezresearch]

Hundreds of autonomous agents for trading

Scanning the market from different data providers, different strategies, interacting with each other.

If you want to see what real emergence in trading looks like, and what comes out of this open project, stay tuned.

Conway for financial markets, coming soon.

[Arthur @adezresearch]

Here is the free (and improved) open-source version so you can tweak it yourself

Free forever.

Here's the repo: https://t.co/6rAE7nbJoc

[Tulip King 🌷 @tulipking]

honestly a weak and uninspiring blog:

* No improvements to decentralization
* No deviation from an accelerated version of the Ethereum roadmap
* technoslop about faster transactions (no surprise)

it looks like the main motivation was just to stop paying fees to Optimism (fair)

[Boss1986 @Boss061986]

@DeItaone @grok what does qai do

[Arthur @adezresearch]

https://t.co/MpeSOBEvAf

[Arthur @adezresearch]

How did I manage to maintain an 85% win rate during this drop, anticipate the bear market three months ago and exit my spot positions, taking only one loss in the process and six wins, all live?

Here are the strategies I use to avoid missing the next bottom and to stop longing every higher low on $BTC

[Arthur @adezresearch]

November 18, 2025 – High-Probability Technical Bounce on $BTC

Macro remains bearish, but I’m taking longs

After 6/6 perfect shorts ✅ from 103.5k down to 92.8k, we're entering a zone where a technical bounce has high probability of materializing, but the institutional macro context remains unequivocally bearish.

Why the Technical Bounce is Highly Probable?
Current Data as of Nov 18, 2025

Price: $92,798 (+1.45% session)
Perpetual CVD: -113.362k (stabilizing vs. -114k)
Spot CVD: -78.155k (no further deepening)
Funding rate: 0.0069% (neutral, liquidation pressure exhausted)
Structural level: 93k = monthly support defended

H1/H4 Signals Converging

Seller exhaustion confirmed
CVD stopped deepening → institutional absorption at 92-93k
Volume increasing without price collapse = passive buying active

Deleveraging partially completed
OI dropped from 125k to 102k (-18%)
Neutral funding = trapped longs already liquidated
Not too much fuel for additional cascade

Structural confluence intact
93k = validated monthly support (not broken on close on the monthly)

Historical value zone with previous reaction

Classic technical pattern
Extended drop without significant retracement
Oversold on lower timeframes

Probable technical target: 95-98k (previous distribution zone + volume POC)

Why Macro Remains Bearish?

ETF Flows: Brutal Institutional Distribution
Farside Investors Data
Distribution continues
Last 7 days: -$2,479M net
Last 2 days: -$1,358M (acceleration)

Institutions aggressively distributing:
BlackRock (largest ETF) leading outflows

Clear pattern: buy low, sell bounces
Nov 11 (+524M) was a bull trap → followed by -1,144M in 48h

Stablecoins: Absence of New Capital
No stablecoin expansion = no fuel for rally:
USDT flat (0.0% daily) = no new capital entering

USDC contracting (-2% weekly) = liquidity exiting
USDE collapsing -35.5% = massive carry trade deleveraging

No new spot demand to sustain rally beyond technical bounce.

Critical Difference: Bounce vs. Reversal
Technical bounce (high probability):

Sustained bullish reversal (low probability):
Would require:ETF inflows >$500M daily sustained
USDT/USDC expanding ideally >1% daily
Funding rates >0.015% with OI growing
Recapture of 100k+ with institutional volume

My Personal Position & Execution Plan

What I'm doing here:
I'm personally entering longs at current levels (92-93k) with wide stop losses and medium-sized positions on this last swing low, why?

High-probability technical setup with clear invalidation
Risk/reward favorable from monthly support
H1/H4 signals aligning for bounce

The Full Scenario Map
Base case
93k → Technical bounce to 95-98k → Evaluate
At 95-98k resistance:

If we get volume rejection with bearish H4 confirmation → I close longs, look for short re-entry
Macro still bearish (ETF outflows + flat stablecoins) = distribution zone

Extended case
If we break 95-98k with volume → Extension to 105-110k possible
This is where it gets interesting:

Breaking 98k with institutional volume would change short-term structure
105-110k zone = previous broken support turned resistance
This is where I'd look for short re-entries with lower timeframe confirmations

Setup: HTF resistance + bearish LTF shift + continuation of negative ETF flows

Bull invalidation case
Sustained break above 110k with:

ETF inflows flipping massively positive
Stablecoin expansion accelerating
Funding rates >0.015% sustained
Would require macro thesis reassessment

Risk Management & Caution
Important Notes:
This is a counter-trend position in a bearish macro environment. I'm taking it because:

Technical setup is high-probability from monthly support
Risk is clearly defined
Position sized appropriately for counter-trend trade

But be cautious:
This could easily be a dead-cat bounce that gets rejected at 95-98k

[Boss1986 @Boss061986]

@TheWhiteWhaleV2 I could not agree more. I’ve been in tradfi for 16 years in very senior positions. The fact that they were high fiving while bankrupting their clients was absolutely shocking to me. An example nerds not realizing you actually need someone to go to the casino make money.

[Boss1986 @Boss061986]

@cryptosake @milesdeutscher Dumb question but im new to this. How can I parse thru tg or discord using AI? Don’t I need to be in the channels?