$ETH - The price has broken below the 2D Bull Market Support Band, which has been a strong reversal spot over the last couple of months, and this is a clear sign of weakness, especially considering that the price also broke below the 0.618 Fibonacci POI, sitting at $3.1K.
Because of this, I believe that on the short-term, the most likely outcome is further downside into the high-timeframe support range marked in green, sitting at $2.7K, before a more durable reversal to the upside.
That said, for now, I’m not making any move. As I mentioned in some of my prior updates, I kept some cash on the side in case this wasn’t the true breakout, and I plan to accumulate more once the price taps into the high-timeframe support range.
However, if the price were to lose that high-timeframe support range, I would fully hedge my spot position in order to mitigate the downside risk, since that would open the door for an even deeper pullback.
But for now, I’m staying patient and waiting for more confluences and confirmations before taking a more decisive stance.
$ETH - The market structure has improved a lot over the last couple of days, as the price has managed to durably hold above the 1D Bull Market Support Band, which has been a strong reversal spot over the last couple of months, and also break above the 0.618 Fibonacci POI around ~$3.1K.
That said, the price has now rejected at the 0.5 Fibonacci POI near ~$3.4K, which was expected, given that this level has been an important POI in the past as well.
Going forward, I believe that as long as the price continues to hold above the 1D Bull Market Support Band and the 0.618 Fibonacci POI, the most likely outcome remains further upside, and my positioning remains unchanged.
$BTC - I really like the market structure here, as the price has managed to break above and reclaim the lost high-timeframe support range marked in purple, which is a clear sign of strength.
Tomorrow, I’ll be sharing an in-depth video on Bitcoin, as this is the first major development we’ve had in months. Until now, the price repeatedly failed to break above this range and kept rejecting there.
At this point, I believe we could see a quick retrace back toward this range, followed by a more durable reversal and continuation to the upside, essentially a fakeout before expansion.
We can already see signs of this developing in the Velo data: over the last couple of hours, price has been moving lower while open interest has been increasing, and funding rates are drifting toward negative territory, which is a clear sign that bears are doubling down on their shorts.
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