BourbonBTC

📊 Data over hype — on-chain metrics & risk models
🎓 EE/CS + Math & Data Analysis
🏋️ Wealth + health, not just one

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

Bitcoin, minus the hype.

What I post:
📊 On-chain metrics that matter
⚠️ Leverage + liquidation levels
🏦 Strategy/treasury risk
🧮 Fed + macro risk models
🔐 Self-custody security

EE/CS + math. In BTC since 2016.

Pump, I pour a double. Dump, on the rocks. Data either way. Follow.

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

@TedPillows BTC is only down 1.3% on the day at $80.5K despite heavy EU/Asia selling. If US buyers really are absorbing it, the test is whether that holds through Sunday's close.

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

@dotkrueger @River Use them heavily myself. Great company!

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

@BitcoinMagazine Dividends auto-flowing into BTC is a price-blind recurring bid, against new supply of only ~450 BTC a day.

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

Public miners cut their realized hashrate ~23% to chase AI.

Network hashrate just hit a 7-month high anyway: 7-day avg back above 1 ZH/s, up from July's ~726 EH/s low.

Difficulty: +5.92% Oct 16, ~+5.16% next.

Miners leaving isn't security leaving.

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

@DocumentingBTC $10M × ~20M coins = a ~$200T network. Not tomorrow. But with a 21M hard cap, the only variable left is demand.

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

@saylor 848,517 BTC on Strategy's books. Whatever's being decided behind closed doors, the only vote that matters here is the buy-and-hold one.

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

6/ Takeaway: one outflow day is a datapoint. A streak of them below a key level is a trend.

BTC also sits below the ETF holders' average cost basis, $82,313 (Glassnode). On average they're underwater here.

The level I'm watching: a daily close under ~$80.5K, where ETF selling has historically picked up.

I post risk levels like this daily. Follow if that's useful.

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

1/ $635.6M left spot Bitcoin ETFs yesterday. Biggest daily outflow since June 25.

BTC today: flat near $81.7K.

Headline flows mislead more than almost any metric. Here's how I read a day like this, in 4 checks:

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

5/ Check history, honestly.

Farside: after the 22 prior $300M+ outflow days, BTC averaged significantly lower 7, 30, and 90 days later.

Caveat: under 3 years of data, skewed by the bear since Oct 2025. A tendency, not a rule.

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

@Cointelegraph $326.7B of $469.5B is ~70% BTC. Wall Street's "crypto exposure" is still mostly just Bitcoin.

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

@TerryCallsBTC @dotkrueger @TheSamsPodcast Same read. After $635.6M left the ETFs, price still held ~$81.7K. My next check is funding and open interest: if both stay flat, the bid was spot, not leverage.

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

@TedPillows $81.5K spot: sell wall 1.2% above, buy wall 1.8% below. Walls get pulled. The real one is whichever still sits there when price is 0.5% away.

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

@PeterSchiff Gold under $4K and falling with stocks today, while BTC is flat at ~$81.5K over 24h. If gold is the hedge for a stock selloff, why is it trading like a risk asset this morning and Bitcoin isn't?

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

@SawyerMerritt @Tesla Right now the exemption route caps a car with no wheel or pedals at 2,500 a year per maker. Rewrite the rules and Cybercab goes from pilot to real production volume.

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

@AshCrypto Nasdaq -2.6% Thursday, BTC +0.3%. A quiet divergence. Boring only counts if it holds for a week, not a day.

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

@SawyerMerritt Unveiled November 2017, and tomorrow the public can finally see it up close. Nearly nine years of waiting, now four days at the Petersen. LA is about to get crowded.

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

@CoinDesk Net this week is still +$439M: $1B+ in, $635M out. Memecoins +14% is where the froth is. BTC holding $82K through it is the signal.