BoxKickBot

Data Scientist, Rugby Analytics and Opinions

[BoxKickBot @BoxKickBot]

@brettruganalyst Hey Brett, is the data used to create this graphic available somewhere, would be great to pull it apart to see what other trends I can find!

[BoxKickBot @BoxKickBot]

Quick update on Irish kickers vs their Six Nations counterparts:

🟢 Byrne — 104.38 (top 10th percentile)
🟡 Crowley — 98.39 (83rd)
🟡 Frawley — 97.48 (89th)
🔴 Prendergast — 96.02 (94th)

Byrne now moved into 5th overall and comfortably the best-rated Irish kicker.

[EK Rugby Analysis @ek_rugby]

New backline move just dropped🧠

[BoxKickBot @BoxKickBot]

O.Chesum deciding to celebrate over going for a more optimal kick under the posts may be what decides this amazing test match

[BoxKickBot @BoxKickBot]

@andy_o_rugby In order to maintain a 100 score has to complete their kicks at a rate that is equal to the average rate at which kicks are scored

For example, if the global average of Cons & Pens kicked is 70% then that would translate to 100 rating if a player consistently at 70% each game

[BoxKickBot @BoxKickBot]

Ireland’s out-half debate has become a place-kicking debate lately, and you can see why.

I’ve indexed a PlaceKickRating (100 = average) across recent fixtures for Byrne / Prendergast / Crowley.

🧵

[BoxKickBot @BoxKickBot]

@ek_rugby posted a thread about this exact example (and many more!) yesterday - I think spot on with lack of intent when it comes to the chase and formation set for ball retrieval - completely out-worked and out-thought!

[BoxKickBot @BoxKickBot]

@will_owen9 @SquidgeRugby @Ian_madigan

[BoxKickBot @BoxKickBot]

I think there’s a blind spot in how box kicking gets analysed.
People talk about the kick and the chaser.
But what’s actually being coached is the kick-chase formation: winning the space so you can win the ball. 🧵

[BoxKickBot @BoxKickBot]

And this is where Andy Farrell’s frustration makes sense: the second wave can’t be passive.

If there’s no intent to sprint, fold, and arrive on the regather/next ruck, your “contestable” becomes an isolated catch or a French counter.

[BoxKickBot @BoxKickBot]

Caveats:

• This is a simple model, but it passes the smell test. Public data is limited and sample sizes can be small.
• Without kick XY we can’t properly control for degree of difficulty. That’s the difference between “form” and “true ability”.

[BoxKickBot @BoxKickBot]

Worth zooming out on the Ireland-only view for a second.

Now the uncomfortable bit: when you put Ireland’s three alongside the likely Six Nations kickers, the baseline looks higher elsewhere more often than not. Ireland aren’t miles off, but they’re chasing.