Michael Erwin

March Madness expert - your best source for NCAA Tournament bracket tips, predictions, and info. Ultimate goal: achieve the impossible - the perfect bracket

[Michael Erwin @BracketNinja]

🧵🧵 Champ DNA 🧵🧵

To win your pool, gotta pick the champ, so this is the most important thread I'll post. No surprises this year with Tier 1...

Tiers
T1: All the 1-seeds
T2: 2-Connecticut, 3-Michigan St, 3-Virginia
T3: 5-Vanderbilt

DO NOT pick any other team as your champ.

[Michael Erwin @BracketNinja]

Belmont Stakes Handicap Helper

I put together some info to take a good look at the Belmont Stakes race
No model or sim - just aggregated info
Not much time before the race, but I wanted to share
Reads much better on pc than mobile...
https://t.co/2qVZ9cMj8v

[Michael Erwin @BracketNinja]

Belmont Stakes Handicap Helper

I put together some info to take a good look at the Belmont Stakes race
No model or sim - just aggregated info
Not much time before the race, but I wanted to share
Reads much better on pc than mobile...
https://t.co/2qVZ9cMj8v

[Michael Erwin @BracketNinja]

Great question. Sorry I didn't see it until now. There is just a bigger gap between the top seeds and the lower seeds than there has been historically.
The models got it right this time. The double-digit seed most likely to advance to the Sweet 16 was Texas and Texas is the one that did it. Not a real Cinderella. A P5 team with top level talent and a top level coach.

[Michael Erwin @BracketNinja]

Model Comps - Cinderellas

A Cinderella is a double-digit seed that reaches the Sweet 16

All-time average = 2.2/yr

We’ve only had two tournaments (of 40) without one (1995 and 2007).

Last 3 tournaments - only 1 each.

Models predict only 1 this year.

[Hoop Herald @TheHoopHerald]

This video is great

The rise of Houston Basketball in Kelvin Sampson’s tenure has been amazing

From begging people to come to games to blowing teams out in the Tournament

[NCAA March Madness @MarchMadnessMBB]

LIU's Eddie Munyak scored his first career points in a #MarchMadness game and LOOK at what it means to him 🥹

[Michael Erwin @BracketNinja]

@FIVESTARINVEGAS True. If Houston gets past A&M and Illinois.
Still good point about guard play, which really does matter in the tournament

[Michael Erwin @BracketNinja]

Region F4 Chaos Score

Indicates whether a region is more or less likely to have a 1-seed winner

Arizona and Michigan have their work cut out for them

Florida and Duke have relatively smoother paths

thread...

[Michael Erwin @BracketNinja]

@moneygo8t Totally agree

Seriously, it was weird to watch

[Michael Erwin @BracketNinja]

🤦🏼‍♂️
Not good, Duke.

Struggling against a 16 could be a bad sign.

Just a quick look at the 7 closest 1v16 games I could find:

3 lost in the Second Round
3 lost in the Elite 8
1 lost in the Final Four

Wow

[CBS Sports College Basketball 🏀 @CBSSportsCBB]

"We thought it was going to be a cakewalk going into this game so now we know what it is so we just have to respond back."

Duke's Maliq Brown spoke with @TracyWolfson at halftime.

[Michael Erwin @BracketNinja]

@moneygo8t I thought they still had a chance, if they didn't face Arizona or Michigan in the final.

Florida's path looks decently better now than I previously thought.

But if either Arizona or Michigan reach the final, it's hard to see anyone beating them

[Michael Erwin @BracketNinja]

@moneygo8t

[Michael Erwin @BracketNinja]

If Duke turns this around and wins it all, it’ll be historic.

No 1-seed has ever recovered from such poor 1-seed performance to win the tournament

A F4 run wouldn’t be unprecedented

[Captain Lou @moneygo8t]

@BracketNinja Really bad

[Michael Erwin @BracketNinja]

@moneygo8t Daaaang! Thanks for sharing. That’s pretty compelling.
There’s a first time for everything, but…..

[Michael Erwin @BracketNinja]

My $billion bracket is still alive!

[Trilly Donovan @trillydonovan]

The single greatest day on the sports calendar is here.

[Michael Erwin @BracketNinja]

Good luck everyone

[Michael Erwin @BracketNinja]

@DaveWilsonBiz 💯

[Michael Erwin @BracketNinja]

@Cincyrunstnorth @wjstevenson Yep

[Michael Erwin @BracketNinja]

Louisville's Mikel Brown out this week.
Brown's a key player.

I'd think twice and maybe thrice about picking Louisville to survive the first weekend without Brown.

In the ACC Tourn without Brown, they beat SMU (another 11-seed), but it was a tight game
h/t @wjstevenson

[Michael Erwin @BracketNinja]

Model Comps - Bracket Busters

BBs are 6+ seeds that reach the Elite 8, wreaking bracket chaos.

Average number of BBs is 1.6.

In the last 10 tournaments, we’ve averaged 1.8.

Models predict we'll only have 1 this year

6-Tennessee and 6-Louisville: co-favorites

[Michael Erwin @BracketNinja]

@Spooky_Pirate

[Michael Erwin @BracketNinja]

🧵🧵 Champ DNA 🧵🧵

To win your pool, gotta pick the champ, so this is the most important thread I'll post. No surprises this year with Tier 1...

Tiers
T1: All the 1-seeds
T2: 2-Connecticut, 3-Michigan St, 3-Virginia
T3: 5-Vanderbilt

DO NOT pick any other team as your champ.

[Michael Erwin @BracketNinja]

I would rather that you just said "thank you" and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you gather the data and build a model. Either way, I don't [care] what you think you're entitled to!

[Michael Erwin @BracketNinja]

🧵A Few Good Bracket Tips🧵
Y'all, we live in a world that has brackets, and those brackets have to be entered into bracket pools. Who's gonna give fire bracket tips? You? You,
Lt Bracketologist?

[Michael Erwin @BracketNinja]

I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to someone who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very bracket gold that I provide and then questions the manner in which I provide it.