March Madness expert - your best source for NCAA Tournament bracket tips, predictions, and info. Ultimate goal: achieve the impossible - the perfect bracket
🧵🧵 Champ DNA 🧵🧵
To win your pool, gotta pick the champ, so this is the most important thread I'll post. No surprises this year with Tier 1...
Tiers
T1: All the 1-seeds
T2: 2-Connecticut, 3-Michigan St, 3-Virginia
T3: 5-Vanderbilt
DO NOT pick any other team as your champ.
Belmont Stakes Handicap Helper
I put together some info to take a good look at the Belmont Stakes race
No model or sim - just aggregated info
Not much time before the race, but I wanted to share
Reads much better on pc than mobile...
https://t.co/2qVZ9cMj8v
Belmont Stakes Handicap Helper
I put together some info to take a good look at the Belmont Stakes race
No model or sim - just aggregated info
Not much time before the race, but I wanted to share
Reads much better on pc than mobile...
https://t.co/2qVZ9cMj8v
Great question. Sorry I didn't see it until now. There is just a bigger gap between the top seeds and the lower seeds than there has been historically.
The models got it right this time. The double-digit seed most likely to advance to the Sweet 16 was Texas and Texas is the one that did it. Not a real Cinderella. A P5 team with top level talent and a top level coach.
Model Comps - Cinderellas
A Cinderella is a double-digit seed that reaches the Sweet 16
All-time average = 2.2/yr
We’ve only had two tournaments (of 40) without one (1995 and 2007).
Last 3 tournaments - only 1 each.
Models predict only 1 this year.
This video is great
The rise of Houston Basketball in Kelvin Sampson’s tenure has been amazing
From begging people to come to games to blowing teams out in the Tournament
Region F4 Chaos Score
Indicates whether a region is more or less likely to have a 1-seed winner
Arizona and Michigan have their work cut out for them
Florida and Duke have relatively smoother paths
thread...
🤦🏼♂️
Not good, Duke.
Struggling against a 16 could be a bad sign.
Just a quick look at the 7 closest 1v16 games I could find:
3 lost in the Second Round
3 lost in the Elite 8
1 lost in the Final Four
Wow
"We thought it was going to be a cakewalk going into this game so now we know what it is so we just have to respond back."
Duke's Maliq Brown spoke with @TracyWolfson at halftime.
@moneygo8t I thought they still had a chance, if they didn't face Arizona or Michigan in the final.
Florida's path looks decently better now than I previously thought.
But if either Arizona or Michigan reach the final, it's hard to see anyone beating them
If Duke turns this around and wins it all, it’ll be historic.
No 1-seed has ever recovered from such poor 1-seed performance to win the tournament
A F4 run wouldn’t be unprecedented
Louisville's Mikel Brown out this week.
Brown's a key player.
I'd think twice and maybe thrice about picking Louisville to survive the first weekend without Brown.
In the ACC Tourn without Brown, they beat SMU (another 11-seed), but it was a tight game
h/t @wjstevenson
Model Comps - Bracket Busters
BBs are 6+ seeds that reach the Elite 8, wreaking bracket chaos.
Average number of BBs is 1.6.
In the last 10 tournaments, we’ve averaged 1.8.
Models predict we'll only have 1 this year
6-Tennessee and 6-Louisville: co-favorites
🧵🧵 Champ DNA 🧵🧵
To win your pool, gotta pick the champ, so this is the most important thread I'll post. No surprises this year with Tier 1...
Tiers
T1: All the 1-seeds
T2: 2-Connecticut, 3-Michigan St, 3-Virginia
T3: 5-Vanderbilt
DO NOT pick any other team as your champ.
I would rather that you just said "thank you" and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you gather the data and build a model. Either way, I don't [care] what you think you're entitled to!
🧵A Few Good Bracket Tips🧵
Y'all, we live in a world that has brackets, and those brackets have to be entered into bracket pools. Who's gonna give fire bracket tips? You? You,
Lt Bracketologist?
I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to someone who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very bracket gold that I provide and then questions the manner in which I provide it.