brad plumer

Reporter at @nytclimate.

email: [email protected]
signal: bradplumer.54

[brad plumer @bradplumer]

@Astoll15 jefferies has been all in since the morning

[brad plumer @bradplumer]

@atrembath because of timelines to develop projects, my understanding is that most of the projects coming online this year were permitted pre-Trump. So if you're trying to argue that permitting barriers are fake (?) you might need another year or two to see that in deployments

[brad plumer @bradplumer]

@atrembath @heatmap_news @emilypont hardcore EIA fans

[brad plumer @bradplumer]

@atrembath @TheBTI @TedNordhaus that is very cool, congrats!

[brad plumer @bradplumer]

@DByers21 agree, and few are as transparent as IEA about policy assumptions. guess we'll see in the next WEO when they do CPS and STEPS and we can see how big a difference it makes.

(i do think there's a case that CPS is its own form of wishcasting, but agree it's more straightforward.)

[brad plumer @bradplumer]

@DByers21 fair points, though we don't say what you put in quotes. pros and cons to current policy vs stated policy.

one thing i wonder is how much of the difference in IEA STEPS vs OPEC is due to using current policy vs OPEC simply projecting much higher GDP/capita.

[brad plumer @bradplumer]

@NiyerEnergy that is super interesting—iirc there are quite a few utilities/regulators out there who have said let's focus on getting to ~80% and worry about the rest when we get there

[brad plumer @bradplumer]

@NiyerEnergy in the solar/wind/clean firm scenario what's the rough contribution of each? ie how big a role does clean firm play in the gen mix? (or is that not how it works)

[brad plumer @bradplumer]

@binarybits dunno, seems like they care a lot https://t.co/QQUeeIU42E

[brad plumer @bradplumer]

@RyanAlimento @atrembath ah ok. I just don’t get how the final House bill can have a shorter window/faster phaseout for all of wind/solar/batteries/geothermal AND nuclear and still lead to more spending. But I’ll read more closely

[brad plumer @bradplumer]

@RyanAlimento @atrembath that is surprising to me. thought everyone agreed that final house version is waaaay more restrictive on solar/wind/batteries than SFC and I assume those three drive most of the spending. but maybe that misses something

[brad plumer @bradplumer]

@atrembath are you comparing SFC draft with the initial House Ways and Means bill or the version that ultimately passed? (agree if it's the former, not the latter)

[brad plumer @bradplumer]

@ppavnr would there be any significant budgetary savings from doing this? (you probably induce somewhat fewer wind/solar projects on net but the ones that do get built are potentially more expensive, depending on the battery requirements)

[brad plumer @bradplumer]

@atrembath is this a metaphor for the miracle of time-saving technologies or was he saying his kids secretly tossed books into the machine when no one was looking?

[brad plumer @bradplumer]

More detail here on why this is a potentially pretty significant tweak for new nuclear projects.

(Though not as much of a boost as the original IRA, which would keep tax credits for new reactors until at least 2032—and probably longer.) https://t.co/xBkQd0jS7i

[Adam Stein @Dr_A_Stein]

The manager's amendment to the reconciliation bill keeps the tax credits for advanced nuclear and expanding existing plants if construction starts by the end of 2028. A lot of projects could meet this deadline if they apply to the NRC soon and seek a LWA, or buy long lead items

[brad plumer @bradplumer]

New House GOP text has faster phaseout for IRA clean electricity credits—you gotta start building 60 days after the law passes and put it in service by the end of 2028, or no credit.

There's an exception for nuclear—you can claim the credit if you start construction by end 2028.

[Jake Sherman @JakeSherman]

HERE IS THE MANAGER'S AMENDMENT

https://t.co/05yzfCatm7

[brad plumer @bradplumer]

@Dr_A_Stein oh interesting thank you. will have to read the IRS guidance more closely.

[brad plumer @bradplumer]

@FacemireJon agreed that's my guess. maybe oklo or kairos can squeak in there? or interest in nuscale picks up.

[brad plumer @bradplumer]

Oh wait, sorry. The full tech-neutral clean electricity credits will only apply to plants that are "in service" by 2028, which is a major restriction — this is a MUCH faster phase out than it first looked.

[brad plumer @bradplumer]

Looking at IRA:
—phase down of tech-neutral clean electricity credits after 2028, to zero by 2031
—termination of EV tax credits after end 2026
—termination of hydrogen tax credits after end 2025
—new restrictions on foreign entity of concern for domestic manufacturing credits

[Laura Weiss @LauraEWeiss16]

BREAKING NEWS: House Republicans are out with their tax bill extending the 2017 tax cuts, granting Trump’s campaign priorities & more

UPDATED TIME - Markup kicks off 2:30 p.m. tomorrow

The bill is 389 pages !!

READ IT HERE: https://t.co/ybuYbGLR9U