Econ Brah

Macro/Behavioral Economics, Crypto Trade Copier, Shitty Model Maker

AVAX hentai dude

[Econ Brah @BrahEcon]

Nobel Prize Winning Economist Say:

[Econ Brah @BrahEcon]

@boldleonidas He cooked with this one

[Econ Brah @BrahEcon]

@CryptoParadyme When the obvious cycle happens and you hit 100k+ followers for calling the bottom, what will you do with your newly won fame?

[Econ Brah @BrahEcon]

My GOAT has been in a war of attrition with some of the worst people on the internet and still has time to drop bangers like this, very strong follow.

[Maoist Landlord™️ @fleshsimulator]

At what point do you have to say 'skill issue'

[Econ Brah @BrahEcon]

@kamikazecash This is correct, but to unwind it for current participants is the hard part. You'd need people to keep paying in until, say, 40, then be allowed to opt out fully. They'd still be plus in retirement after they started taking that money home to invest.

[Econ Brah @BrahEcon]

We could save a lot of new traders a lot of time by having a 5 minute video called "Its over fitting and it doesn't predict shit." Just tape "bias-variance trade off" over your monitor.

[Aporia @0xaporia]

Great follow if you want to understand curve fitting, because his charts are a live demo of it.

Curve fitting = building a model that matches past data really well, by tuning it until it lines up. But a model that explains the past perfectly and a model that predicts the future are not the same thing.

Every model has knobs. On a chart, the knobs are things like: which lows you connect for a trendline, the length of a moving average, log vs linear scale, the period on an oscillator, where you anchor Fibonacci levels, the start/end dates you choose to show, etc.

The more knobs you add, the more closely you can match any history, including the random noise in it. With enough knobs, you can draw a model that fits any past chart almost perfectly. It appears like insight but in reality, it's just having enough free knobs. So a tight fit on past data tells you almost nothing on its own. The question is always: how many knobs did you turn to get there? A model that needs 8 hand-picked knobs to fit the past is far weaker than one that needs 1.

Fitting the past and predicting the future are pulling against each other, and past a certain point every additional knob you spend on a tighter historical fit is bought at the cost of predictive power. When the past stops matching, you add another knob. "It's an extended cycle now." "It's liquidity-weighted." Each adjustment re-fits the model to what already happened. In hindsight (and *only* in hindsight), it always looks right.

1) Develop model
2) Add/change knobs to fit
3) “Subscribe to my paid newsletter”
4) Watch model crash and burn
5) Back to 2)

[Econ Brah @BrahEcon]

"What if this is the bottom"

Go look at past BTC macro bottoms. It's puke into low vol sideways for well over a month. When it's the bottom you'll have time.

[Im_human @Im_human_too_]

Gen Z gave up alcohol for stuff like this

[Mr. S.T.A.R. @favelaoverlord]

“Anti-data center stuff is CCP propaganda” is usual cope for the fact that the American university-media-TikTok complex produces the most insane and virulent forms of degrowth leftism imaginable.

[Air Katakana @airkatakana]

you see a guy with a 6-pack and mistakenly think he's a chad

no, that is an autistic man and his autistic special interest is being hot

one wrong turn and that 6-pack would have been a binder of magic the gathering cards

[Yugiman101 @Yugiman101]

Gym Goals

[Degen CPA @DrewVento]

The hardest part about being dumb and broke and in your 20s is realizing you’re 37.

[Econ Brah @BrahEcon]

@barkery91 banger

[Econ Brah @BrahEcon]

You might have noticed i missed some days, but its only because I dont give a shit. 🫡

[Kajino @furuyagi0116]

“fang and pile ”

[Kajino @furuyagi0116]

“ Late-Blooming “

[factorydoge @factorydoge69]

claude confirm all my pre existing cognitive biases and amplify them by sycophantically agreeing with all my ideas. make no mistakes.

[Econ Brah @BrahEcon]

@cremedupepe @sheikhswampert Just saw this and did a double take. My boy made it.

[Econ Brah @BrahEcon]

@CryptoParadyme One of the best still kicking around CT fr