Friday was brutal.
I know I covered a bunch of this stuff on stream and videos over the weekend but I wanted to put a few things down in writing.
First things first: take care of yourselves.
If your head is fucked up, it might make sense to take some time before getting back in the saddle.
That being said, you have to get back on the horse but do so with the right mindset.
This is a lonely profession, so take the time to try to clear your mind and check in with your trading friends.
I know a thing or two about getting rekt.
I ate shit 3 big trades in a row before this crash and took a hit on this move.
I also lost millions on FTX and I’ve experienced every significant market crash since 2013-2014.
So I know what it’s like.
You can rebuild and recover.
Always.
Most of you are young and without a lot of dependents.
Even if it may seem like it, it’s not the end of the world.
One of the biggest immediate obstacles is adjusting to your current capital base.
You absolutely have to purge your all-time high net worth.
If you chase it, revenge trade towards it, or let it live rent-free in your mind you’ll just make terrible decisions.
So get rid of it.
I recommend creating a new account and starting with a fresh slate.
Loss of confidence is a huge factor, so I recommend sizing down and adjusting to your new trade size.
It sucks, it hurts the ego, but being process-oriented is how you can grow sustainably.
This crash was particularly brutal because even "safe" leverage levels got blown up.
If you’re going to use leverage, use a hard stop and isolated margin where possible to avoid portfolio-wide risk.
So practically:
1) Take a break and a breather. Chat to friends. Don’t rush.
2) Purge your all-time high net worth. It’s not real and was never real in the first place.
3) Start a fresh account.
4) Recalculate and adjust your position sizing to your new balance and focus on being process-oriented.
5) If you’re super capital constrained, consider getting a job in crypto (see my next tweet)
McDonalds jokes aside, it’s really nice to trade knowing you’ll have income either way and crypto has a ton of job openings for crypto natives and people who aren’t tourists.
That’s your edge - use it. You probably don’t need to trade full-time anyway.
Lastly, if you wanna leverage trade but want to do it without liquidation risk, you can try out @Breakoutprop.
Yeah, I know it sounds awful shilling my own product in these circumstances, but realistically it’s one of the best and safest ways to trade crypto leverage.
You’re not on the hook for any losses, there are no deposits, there’s no cross-margin or any of that shit.
You just pay for the test and that’s it - if you draw down you lose the account and nothing more.
Just the upfront eval fee.
Whatever, personal shit aside, it’s been awesome to see the community together when we get collectively hit by a nuke.
Will fire up some more content in the near future and will do my best to help you guys out, or at least be a source of entertainment in shit times.
Arthur Hayes: Is The US Promoting Stablecoins Only to Resolve Its Debt?
During an interview with Kyle Chasse, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, pointed out that in many parts of the world such as Latin America and developing Asia, people have a strong demand for US dollars due to high inflation of their local currencies and deposit rates lower than nominal GDP. However, they can hardly access US dollars because local regulations restrict foreign banks from providing US dollar-denominated banking services, which makes stablecoins like Tether highly popular. He believes this situation is expected to unlock trillions of US dollars in capital from the Global South, with the potential market size of stablecoins possibly reaching $34 trillion. He also mentioned that Besson and Trump's promotion of stablecoins has geopolitical significance; essentially, it is to let the private sector promote stablecoins globally, ultimately facilitating the purchase of Treasury bills. The core goal is to attract price-insensitive buyers to buy Treasury bills rather than focusing on innovation, and this move is in line with the interests of U.S. monetary policy.
Source: https://t.co/civuBPS0Qa
The time has come:
On Wednesday, the Fed will cut rates for the first time in 2025 and "blame" a weak labor market.
This will be just the 3rd year since 1996 with Fed rate cuts while the S&P 500 is at record highs.
What happens next? Let us explain.
(a thread)
@CollinRugg It's obvious they were trying to conceal "something" from a crowd of journalists.
Weird hand transfers, awkward silence and smiles.... The whole thing reeks of panic and cover up.
NEW: French media is shutting down social media rumors that French President Emmanuel Macron was caught with a bag of cocaine during a trip to Ukraine.
The moment was caught during a train ride from Poland to Ukraine when reporters entered the room.
Macron was meeting with the Chancellor of Germany Friedrich Merz, and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Social media users are speculating that Macron was caught with a bag of cocaine, and some are suggesting that Merz was concealing a coke straw or spoon.
French media outlet Liberation is now rushing to defend the leaders, claiming there is "no evidence" to support the claims.
The outlet is suggesting that the item Macron grabbed was a handkerchief, and the item Merz had was a "stirrer."
Any other suggestion is a "conspiracy theory," according to the French outlet.