Brian Winter

Latin American politics & barbecue. Editor-in-chief @amerquarterly "O mais brasileiro dos texanos." Opinions mine.

[Eixo Político @eixopolitico]

🇧🇷 AGORA: PL, partido do candidato derrotado Flávio Bolsonaro, reconhece vitória de Lula.

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

I think "I didn't take sides" is more important here than "rigged"

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

Not the bellicose response the Bolsonaro family & Bannon were pushing for.

[Rapid Response 47 @RapidResponse47]

.@POTUS on the election in Brazil: "It looked like another rigged election, frankly. I didn't take sides, but it was a terrible look for the world. Elections have to be indisputable — and it looked very bad to me."

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

The controversial 2-hour delay in voting at some ballot stations in Brazil yesterday only resulted in 34,000 extra votes -- irrelevant, given Lula beat Bolsonaro by 4.43 million

Source: TSE (electoral court)

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

I sense that Brazilian power brokers that matter don't really want to go down the path of a contested election. But we shouldn’t underestimate the power of the Bolsonaro family. They can make life difficult for Lula for weeks and months to come, I told @AP

https://t.co/JWDjYsZlNz

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

NEW: Amid the euphoria of Maria Corina Machado's return, Benigno Alarcón notes: It "implies no concessions for the regime, whose status holds: It tolerates a protected leader’s comeback and punishes the periphery at low cost. One day before the return, it held another local leader of Machado’s party for hours."

Reaction from @benalarcon , @aroliveros and others for AQ :

https://t.co/73bFcWW6mi

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

@emd_worldwide Explicitly mentioned above! Thank you!!

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

What a comeback.

We will need time to properly understand it. But I think this was a 20th century politician who, at the very last possible moment, figured out how to run a 21st century campaign. After his first round loss, Lula started carrying a smartphone for the first time in his life, brought in younger aides who knew how to run a real digital operation, and finally was able to create some excitement in one of the world’s most terminally online countries. The net result was 3 million more people who turned out to vote, fewer spoiled ballots, votes from third-party candidates, and some repented bolsonaristas as well.

Flávio Bolsonaro challenged the results, but he faces an extremely difficult battle. The margin of victory, more than 4 million votes, was too large to be explained by the delay in polling stations closing or any other abnormalities. Big Brazilian power brokers, including the so-called Centrão, are dutifully accepting the result. The Bolsonaros will ask the White House for support, but it’s important that the vast majority of Latin American leaders, including those on the right like Keiko Fujimori and José Antonio Kast, quickly recognized Lula’s victory. They concluded this is over, and the Trump administration may do the same.

For Lula, the good news is that he won, and the bad news is that he won. He ran up a big bill to help make this happen: More than $60 billion in extra spending, welfare payments, debt forgiveness and other fiscal largesse. This in a country with real interest rates above 8% and a debt burden forecast to reach 83% of GDP this year, up a whopping 12 percentage points in Lula’s term. Markets are hemorrhaging in the hours after his victory, and they may get worse until Lula details his plans to cut spending. Lula also faces the most conservative Congress on record, a skeptical business community, and consumers who are struggling under huge debts as well.

But look, Lula would rather deal with those problems than the alternative. He will be the man who defined an entire half-century of Brazilian history, from the metalworkers’ strike he led as a labor union leader in 1979 to the end of his fourth term in 2030. A truly epic story that is still being written, and may yet bring more surprises.

--

For more, including reactions from @DaniCamp0 and Alessandra Ribeiro:

https://t.co/oigT4uyQMD

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

Colombia's new conservative president also recognizing the Lula victory, joining virtually all South American leaders except (so far) President Milei.

[Abelardo De La Espriella @ABDELAESPRIELLA]

En la campaña presidencial colombiana, el presidente Lula apoyó abiertamente a Iván Cepeda y gané yo. En la campaña brasileña, apoyé a Bolsonaro y ganó Lula.

Ni Lula decide por los colombianos ni yo decido por los brasileños. ¡DECIDE LA GENTE! Y cuando el pueblo se pronuncia en las urnas, su voluntad se respeta porque es sagrada. ¡En eso consiste la democracia!

El presidente Lula y yo tenemos grandes y profundas diferencias políticas e ideológicas, pero coincidimos en algo fundamental: Brasil y Colombia se necesitan mutuamente.

Ninguna consideración puede estar por encima de los intereses de nuestras naciones. Colombia y Brasil son países hermanos, con enormes desafíos y oportunidades compartidas.

Tenemos mucho por hacer y trabajar en beneficio de nuestros pueblos. El respeto mutuo, la soberanía y la cooperación deben marcar nuestras relaciones, así como la lucha contra el narcoterrorismo y la minería ilegal, la protección de la Amazonía y el bienestar de nuestros ciudadanos.

¡Firme por la Patria!

¡Que viva Cristo Rey!

(A.D.L.E) 🇨🇴 🐅

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

And now I am expected to sleep??

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

The small community of Latin Americanists has been arguing for 2 years about whether it's a "right-wing wave" or an "anti-incumbent wave" and huh I guess we were all wrong tonight eh

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

Ecuador and Bolivia, too

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

Right wing leaders of Chile and Paraguay very quickly recognizing Lula victory

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

Flávio declines to recognize the result, says he will ask for election to be annulled. Improbable, but signals weeks/months/??? of tension ahead. The Bolsonaros will have biggest bloc in Senate, allied governors and possibly White House in their corner

[Metrópoles @Metropoles]

🗳️ ELEIÇÕES | Flávio não reconhece vitória de Lula e diz que pedirá anulação da eleição

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

👀 At victory rally, Lula hands microphone to Alckmin, who speaks first.

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

It was the turnout, stupid.

3 million more people voted in 2nd round than 1st. Only 3.2% of all voters spoiled their ballots, lowest percentage in a 2nd round this century

Source: @folha

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

Lula wins, and it wasn’t particularly close — 3.5% or more than 4 million votes.

It’s an epic comeback and we will need time to fully understand it. But one thing is clear — the extension in voting hours was not the difference maker in this race.

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

Looks like Lula. Wow

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

Optimism in the Lula camp