Always bet the break

Don't bet the break...
(Cycling betting, Strategy, Game Theory)

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

The young Americans are going to be a pain to race against for the next 15 years in world championships.

Simmons, Jorgenson, McNulty, and seemingly Sheffield are just powerhouses who will make life hard, and I think thrive in the types of long, hard races that natl teams contest

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

This used to be every single tour.

Such a 90s/00s route.

I'm kind of fine with going TT heavy once every ~5 years. Give the Dumoulin's of the world a chance.

I do think it's unbecoming of the director to mention specific riders by name, as having influenced the route.

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

I can't with this guy, but the irony of him commenting on "sharing when you see a Tour de France contender training in Europe, even when that isn't publicly available information" is incredible.

[CyclingUpToDate @CyclingUpToDat3]

Michael Rasmussen slams “bizarre” Visma silence after amateur cyclist breaks news of Jonas Vingegaard training return in chance encounter

https://t.co/Z09RJRpv9M

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

Running bit on here how Carapaz performs best for a new contract, and less well when he has security.

And they've just given him 3 years...

Eesh.

Proof that this NSN team is an extension of the team that signed Froome and Fuglsang to those long deals.

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

My greatest strength is that I have the discipline and focus of a Grand Tour winning cyclist.

My greatest weakness is that the cyclist in question is specifically "Richard Carapaz after he has a good Giro that he has used to negotiate his next contract".

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

@JamesTalksSport Yeah - he's been good in a lot of races and close a lot, and performed very well. Good stuff for Q36.5

But you can also see why Ineos balked at paying him like a top 5-10 rider in the world, and were happy enough to move off of him.

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

Two years on from the Pidcock drama, I think all 3 sides (Pidcock, Ineos, Q36) were right about their hypotheses and that it has worked out pretty well for all 3.

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

@ilmaestro_99 Expensive for my bank account

https://t.co/hS0Y4r6UGx

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

@Neilstrung @BenjiNaesen @SendRaces @LPDouces It can never be said I'm not a Vanhoucke believer! That's four bets on him that didn't exactly come off.

But I'm just not sure what races he could be targeting. Most short stage races have an ITT, or not a ton of climbing. What are 4-5 races you think he could target?

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

Which men’s cyclist has had the most profitable single day of racing over the last 8+ years? (Probably on a % basis).

Lafay and Foss for sure. Champoussin kind of up there. Who else?

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

@gietvangent “How can you be happy getting a silver medal at the Olympics…”

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

@belicosus Definitely crossed my mind. Up there I think. It’s so valuable to win Worlds when you’re young. Every contract goes way up.

And he also has backed it up ever since.

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

@kgardner081 Yeah huge result but also probably minimum wage contract only off the back of it.

Lafay and Foss were probably jumping to 7 figures off the back of theirs, plus huge bonuses

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

Worlds ITT
Euro RR
Amstel, San Sebastián, Quebec
3rd Liege, 4th Lombardia, 3rd Flanders (!)
2nd GC with 2 stage wins at TDF
Plus won the first 4 races of his year in Spain

It would’ve been unimaginable 10yrs ago that anyone could do that.

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

I know he was riding two GTs a year, but… it’s certainly a curious set of absences from races he seems good at. Could he have been close to the Mollema/Fuglsang/Chaves template?

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

Shorter grand tours, too. Focus on the main guys.

Cannot have any of these embarrassing filler stages where pro team nobodies like Angel Madrazo win from a break.

We must be efficient with our grand tours! They can’t just stretch on into languid summer afternoons.

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

In 2024, we visited Bologna because we were so taken by the beauty of Giro Dell’emilia - but now that I know it threatens the profits of Ivan Glasenberg and that it’s not Pogačar vs Vingegaard every year, I think it should be taken off the calendar.

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

Similarly, I hate that there are races like Tour of Poland or Cro Race where new world champion Brandon McNulty has gotten to race as a leader.

Hopefully we will clean up the calendar so he can focus his schedule exclusively on being a domestique for Pogačar 100% of the time.

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

This is a lot of what happened in cricket "What if we abandon our core audience and try to change the sport to appeal to people who don't like our sport"?

Guess what - it doesn't attract new viewers, and it alienates your core audience!

Excited for cycling winviz though... 🙄

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

@Lolo225677 3-4 teams may appear as well.

But I’m not sure why fewer races and less exposure would mean teams like Flanders-Baloise would survive?

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

I'm confused why everybody's 'solution' to cycling is:

- Fewer races
- Fewer top level races
- More of the same guys racing each other
- More money and security to the team owners (?) who are probably the most replaceable part of the ecosystem

I like variety! I have no issues!

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

@JECabraC @CdelVentoux @laflammerouge16 The loudest voices are two billionaire team owners saying that more money should go to team owners.

https://t.co/xyXWV41Fxg

[La Flamme Rouge @laflammerouge16]

The Collective Cycling Group, led by team owners including Ivan Glasenberg and Zdenek Bakala, has raised €25m to reshape the sport’s business model.

15 WorldTour teams reportedly support it, while UAE, Alpecin-Premier Tech and Jayco AlUla have rejected the project.

The goal: more head-to-head racing, a revamped calendar and teams taking greater control of commercial rights.

UCI is expected to respond next month.

https://t.co/dGkop0iJzI

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

Today I enjoy O Gran Camino, Vuelta a Asturias, Itzulia (which I've now been to twice, and spent weeks in basque country as a tourist because of it), Ruta del Sol, later Getxo and San Sebastian, of course Algarve/Figueroa...

In the 'perfect' future I will get: "Iberian week"

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

And if you do shrink the calendar, or the important calendar, what do you think happens?

Races probably go bankrupt, fewer riders get carried on rosters, probably less money to go around...

I just haven't seen it actually thoughtfully spelled out.