Here’s a clear explanation of why Trump attacked Iran, and why I think the war will end soon.
The war isn't about nuclear weapons. It's not about helping the Iranian people. It’s not about doing Israel’s bidding. And it's not about Iran being a threat to the U.S.
It's about China.
China imports 45-57% of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has the capacity to shut it down.
A U.S.-aligned Iran means an Iran that would choke off that strait if there's ever a real power struggle between Washington and Beijing.
And there already is one.
The U.S. and China have been locked in a tariff war for over a year now.
Also remember when China threatened export controls on rare earths, encompassing any company anywhere in the world that uses Chinese rare earths?
Yes, China essentially said that any company that uses their rare earths (China refines 85-90% of the world’s supply) must seek their permission before exporting their products.
This means if a German manufacturer uses rare earths fro China to create chips for American companies, China can block the export of these chips.
That’s how much leverage China has over the U.S., and that’s dangerous, especially if China finally decides to reunify with Taiwan.
So controlling the Strait of Hormuz becomes critical for the U.S.
It's the same reason Trump wants China out of the Panama Canal. The same reason Venezuela matters.
The same reason he's eyeing Greenland, where shipping routes to China pass through melting Arctic ice.
Energy is everything now. The AI arms race is the most important strategic competition on the planet.
Limiting China's access to energy is how the U.S. wins that race, and anyone who believes in freedom and democracy should want America to win.
China is investing heavily in domestic energy, building nuclear reactors, solar farms, wind power. They're leapfrogging the rest of the world.
But they still import the majority of their oil. And a significant chunk of it comes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran was reportedly nearing a deal for supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles from China, which would make it easier for Iran to threaten shipping in the Strait and strike U.S. naval vessels.
That accelerated the timeline.
Trump's comment today about doing in Iran what he did in Venezuela makes perfect sense in this context. He wants influence over who comes next.
A regime that's workable for Washington.
If he succeeds, this would be a massive strategic win for the U.S. and for Trump.
Keir Starmer will feel vindicated this morning that his approach of diplomacy with Trump even when under extreme pressure has paid off
UK officials clearly heavily involved with Danes and Rutte behind scenes to talk Trump admin down and help him find an off-ramp
Meanwhile, Britain finds itself lost between two worlds. We were told we didn’t need Europe, we could rely on the transatlantic relationship. They couldn’t have been more wrong.
@mrjamesob nuanced - I don’t agree with Netanyahu but since October 7 antisemitism has increased . Many of us are scared to go to outside events &
Hatred has grown since Gaza
To every single person who has marched for Hamas, posted lies about Israel, or published news that demonised Jews.
This is what you've been supporting, this is your intifada globalised.
Happy now?
https://t.co/lKTovNgusU
@matthewsyed You must listen to @mrjamesob crying that they are peaceful protests and because of ‘feelings’ of some Jewish people they are threatened. Yeah antisemitism is just a feeling!!!! Thank you for facts
Nigel Farage claimed last year to have “bought a house” in his constituency but the property is actually owned in the name of his partner, meaning he legally avoided higher-rate stamp duty on the purchase of an additional home – given he already owns other properties